Melbourne Cup 2023: Runner-by-runner preview, tips and betting strategy

The Melbourne Cup is upon us. Here’s everything you need to know about the horses to pick a winner in the race that stops the nation.

The race that stops the nation is upon us, with a capacity field of 24 set to tackle the famous Flemington two-mile journey.

The weather forecast for Monday and Tuesday suggests we’ll see racing on the firmer side of a Good 4 track.

Speed map, runner-by-runner analysis — including the case for and against each runner — plus tips and suggested betting strategy for the 2023 Melbourne Cup below, per Punters.com.au.

SPEED MAP

The race to the post (for the first time) will be interesting, with decent speed drawn inside and out. Closest to the fence, we should see Serpentine (barrier 1), Vauban (3), Military Mission (5) and potentially Magical Lagoon (7) roll forward. Out wider, expect Williams to send Lastotchka across the field from barrier 21. Right You Are (15) and Vow And Declare (19) are others that might be ridden with aggression in the early stages. The jockeys on Breakup (18) and Without A Fight (16) will hope to slot in around midfield but may have to drag further back than planned from their wide gates. The tempo looks solid on paper.

ANALYSIS

1. GOLD TRIP

Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner has added a G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) win and G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) placing to his CV since his sensational performance here 12 months ago. History is against him (weight rise, back-to-back is incredibly rare) but he’s airborne.

Why he can win: He was brilliant winning this race last year with 57.5kg and is going just as well this time around, following basically the same path. He’s an absolute beast at Flemington and while he loses Zahra, he gains James McDonald.

Why he can’t win: Weight stops trains. He blitzed them with 57.5kg last year but goes up an extra kilogram and the legendary Makybe Diva is the only horse to lump more than 58kg to Cup victory since Think Big in 1975. He doesn’t want a firm deck.

2. ALENQUER

One-time boom import who hasn’t fired in five runs for Mike Moroney. His most recent start at The Valley was somewhat inconclusive but sharp improvement is required to figure here fourth-up.

Why he can win: He took some big scalps overseas, including Cox Plate winner State Of Rest. He’s now had two preparations in Australia and his Moonee Valley Gold Cup run was effectively a trial.

Why he can’t win: He’s yet to finish closer than 5th in five Australian runs and while he closed off soundly over 2500m last start, he still needs to find lengths on that performance.

Vauban is the Melbourne Cup favourite. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT

Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained import who has brought his brilliant Queensland winter form to Melbourne this spring, pulling out plenty to take out the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start.

Why he can win: He won what was a strong edition of the Caulfield Cup and Mark Zahra has elected to ride him over last year’s Cup winner Gold Trip. He loves firm ground, which he’ll likely get here.

Why he can’t win: He was beaten over 21 lengths in this race last year as a $12 chance. In his only other race beyond 2800m he was reasonably well-held. Barrier 16 is hardly ideal.

4. BREAKUP

Japanese stayer who started $10 in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) but was one-paced in the straight after enjoying a nice run. His second-up record (6:3-1-1) suggests he’s open to sharp improvement here over a trip that he’ll relish.

Why he can win: Japanese staying form is generally a very strong reference for this race. He was 4th in the spring Tenno Sho (3200m) three-back behind Justin Palace, who was last seen finishing 2nd to the best horse in the world, Equinox, in the autumn Tenno Sho (2000m) last month.

Why he can’t win: His Caulfield Cup performance was ordinary, finishing 5.7 lengths from Without A Fight when seemingly given every chance. He’s drawn poorly in barrier 18.

5. VAUBAN

This year’s hype horse and favourite, Vauban comes to Australia with a 50 per cent winning strike rate across 14 starts. He was a destructive 7.5 length winner over 2816m at Ascot two-back and was again dominant at Group 3 level last start.

Why he can win: He can stay, he generally makes his own luck up on the speed, and he has a turn-of-foot. He appears to be a better horse than Twilight Payment who won this race with 55.5kg in 2020. He’s drawn perfectly in barrier three.

Why he can’t win: It was only three starts ago that he was going over hurdles. The horse he beat over 2414m last start, Valiant King (1.5L), was a $31 chance in this prior to being withdrawn.

6. SOULCOMBE

Chris Waller-trained import that has looked brilliant in his wins but has mixed his form, at times letting himself down with awful starts. His last three starts have all been at Group 1 level, acquitting himself well each time.

Why he can win: He possesses a dynamic turn-of-foot on his day, as he showed when winning the Heatherlie (1700m) first-up this campaign. It looks an ideal Cup preparation on paper, going 1700m - 1800m - 2000m - 2400m to 3200m fifth-up.

Why he can’t win: He is a poor beginner who could end up buried back in the huge field. He finished 5.5 lengths off Without A Fight and 3.3L off Gold Trip in the Caulfield Cup.

7. ABSURDE

Irish raider who came from barrier 22 (of 22) to win the Ebor (2816m) at York last start. He won’t have any issues with the trip but needs to find a few lengths to turn the tables on Vauban from their Ascot clash in June.

Why he can win: He won the Ebor last start, which has been a decent form reference for the Cup in past years. He gets the services of world-class hoop Zac Purton and strikes his preferred good/firm going.

Why he can’t win: He was smoked by Vauban over 2816m at Ascot three-back. This style of horse (dour stayer/hurdler) is often competitive in this race but generally finds a few sharper.

Breakup is a contender but has drawn barrier 18. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

8. RIGHT YOU ARE

Ultra-genuine galloper who steps beyond 2400m for the first time at start number 27. He was solid in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start but needs to find further improvement to turn the tables on those that finished in front of him.

Why he can win: He is a real competitor, placing in 18 of his 26 career starts. He is in the right camp (Maher and Eustace) to run well and was far from disgraced in the Caulfield Cup.

Why he can’t win: While he ran well in the Caulfield Cup, others were better for 3200m. He is a legitimate query at the distance and isn’t in the same class as a number of his rivals.

9. VOW AND DECLARE

Rejuvenated veteran who has had some real ups and downs since winning this event four years ago. His 2nd to Alligator Blood over 2000m at WFA level two-back reads incredibly well.

Why he can win: He won this race in 2019 and was competitive in it last year with 54.5kg, finishing 8.7 lengths from Gold Trip. He drops down to 53kg and is arguably racing in better form as an 8YO.

Why he can’t win: He has won just 1 race in 24 starts since his Cup triumph. The Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) looks a questionable form race.

10. CLEVELAND

Lloyd Williams-owned import that was Group 3-placed overseas before joining the Kris Lees stable. He was no match at all for Land Legend in the St Leger (2600m) two-back before winning a messy Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) last start.

Why he can win: Has the Lloyd Williams silks/polish. Has won over 3749m so will stay all day. He beat Cup rivals over 2500m at The Valley last start and strikes his preferred firm ground in this.

Why he can’t win: He loses James McDonald for Dee. He was beaten nearly 30 lengths in this year’s Sydney Cup (3200m) and the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) was a bunched finish with some questionable tactics adopted.

11. ASHRUN

Maher and Eustace-trained import who has been good in three starts back from a 1047-day spell. He’ll appreciate the rise to 3200m fourth-up and carries 1.5kg less than he did when finishing 10th in the 2020 Cup.

Why he can win: The owners (Aus Bloodstock) and stable (Maher and Eustace) always have to be respected in these big staying races. He was beaten less than 5 lengths in this race in 2020 and was excellent running 2nd in the Geelong Cup (2400m) last start.

Why he can’t win: The Geelong Cup hasn’t been a great reference for this in recent years and there was only 1.6 lengths separating the first seven horses across the line. He was off the scene for some 1047 days before this spring and the Cup is a gruelling affair, especially on a firm deck.

12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR

Former Kiwi who ran well in this race last year as a $61 chance. His numerical form since doesn’t make for appealing reading but he’s improved with each run this campaign and he needs 2500m+.

Why he can win: He ran well for 6th in this event last year after settling a mile back. He’s arguably racing in better form now, closing solidly for 4th in the Herbert Power (2400m) last start. He won last year’s Adelaide Cup over this trip.

Why he can’t win: He was sound last start but United Nations (100-1 here) and Ferago still beat him home. You have to go back 10 starts for his last placing.

13. OKITA SOUSHI

Joseph O’Brien-trained raider who failed to fire in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) after drifting right back from a wide gate. His form doesn’t look strong enough but O’Brien has to be respected.

Why he can win: He’s a winner over two miles, albeit on a synthetic surface at Dundalk. Joseph O’Brien has won this race twice in the last decade.

Why he can’t win: He started $31 in the Caulfield Cup last start and did very little, finishing almost 10 lengths from Without A Fight. It’s hard to see him finding the necessary improvement to threaten.

14. SHERAZ

French-bred Waller import who comes into this under a slight injury cloud (heat in his front leg). He’s hard to recommend on recent form, finishing unplaced at his last six outings.

Why he can win: He has won over 3000m and placed in last year’s Sydney Cup (3200m). He comes into this off back-to-back 2500m runs and will be peaking fitness-wise.

Why he can’t win: He’s not good enough. He’s had 12 starts in Australia and is yet to strike a winning blow.

15. LASTOTCHKA

Pint-sized mare who was last seen winning over 3100m at Longchamp in September. Now with Price and Kent, Lastotchka will likely race close to the speed with her light weight (51kg).

Why she can win: Australian Bloodstock have a proven track record in this race. She was a Group 3 winner over 3100m in France last start so won’t have any issues with the trip. She gets in with just 51kg.

Why she can’t win: Other formlines here look stronger. All of her wins have come on rain-affected ground. Admittedly they haven’t had her long, but Price and Kent strike at less than 10 per cent in 2400m+ races.

16. MAGICAL LAGOON

Imported Waller-trained mare who led in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) last start but faded late to finish 6th, beaten 1.1 lengths. She’ll be fitter but looks tested.

Why she can win: She’s a Group 1 winner over 2414m, winning the 2022 Irish Oaks. Master trainer Chris Waller has now had her for two preparations and she comes into this fourth-up off a solid effort in the Geelong Cup (2400m).

Why she can’t win: The Geelong Cup doesn’t appear to be the right form reference, with $31 chance Amade prevailing in a real bunched finish.

17. MILITARY MISSION

Waterhouse and Bott-trained gelding who has been racing in consistent form since resuming in August. The distance is a complete unknown but he couldn’t be much fitter after five consecutive runs at 2000m+.

Why he can win: In-form runner from an in-form stable, winning two of his last three over 2300m and 2400m. He has a versatile racing pattern and will go around with just 51kg on his back.

Why he can’t win: He’s never raced beyond 2400m and looks a rung or two below the topliners class-wise. It’s hard to find a performance in his form that says ‘Melbourne Cup winner’.

18. SERPENTINE

Dour on-pacer who knocked up badly after leading in this race last year. He has found consistent form since but he still needs to go to another level to challenge those at the pointy end of the market.

Why he can win: Waterhouse and Bott have got him back in form after he was near-legless for a long time. He hasn’t put a foot wrong in three starts this campaign and drops from 58kg to 51kg for Cup-winning hoop Jye McNeil.

Why he can’t win: He’s been running well but needs to go to another level to figure in the finish here. He’s been beaten out of sight in his last three starts at 3200m+.

19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE

The G1 ATC Derby (2400m) runner-up hasn’t finished closer than 8th in four starts this campaign. He was most unlucky in the G3 Bart Cummings (2520m) here two-back but very disappointing in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) last start.

Why he can win: He gives the impression that he’ll see out the two-mile journey. He was completely luckless in the Bart Cummings (2520m) here two-back.

Why he can’t win: He hasn’t won anything of note and hasn’t placed in four starts since finishing 2nd in the ATC Derby (2400m) on a bog track.

20. MORE FELONS

Waller-trained import who is hard to recommend on his international form but his Australian debut was excellent, arguably producing the run of the race in the Geelong Cup (2400m). It remains to be seen whether that’s the right form race for this though.

Why he can win: He was excellent late in the Geelong Cup (2400m), running the quickest final 400m and 200m splits (23.12 and 11.74 seconds). That was his first Australian run and he’s sure to strip fitter.

Why he can’t win: Absurde beat him by 3.3 lengths in the Ebor and Vauban gave him a thrashing over 2816m at Ascot four starts back. He’s yet to put a significant win on the board.

Gold Trip is in with a chance to go back to back. (Photo by Reg Ryan/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

21. FUTURE HISTORY

Maher and Eustace-trained import who has improved with racing since making his Australian debut in BM78 grade back in June. A change of tactics (ridden back) cost him victory in the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) last start but it was a race he didn’t need to win.

Why he can win: Old-school grounding for this race, racing six times since June from 1600m up to 2520m. He was ridden against his usual pattern last start but still ran well and plummets in weight (56kg down to 50kg).

Why he can’t win: Query on his class. There was less than 2 lengths between the first eight horses past the post in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) and the horse he beat two-back, First Immortal, finished midfield in the Geelong Cup (2400m) at his next outing.

22. INTERPRETATION

Another member of the Maher and Eustace Cup army, Interpretation broke through for his first Australian win in the G3 Bendigo Cup (2400m) last start. He’s been up since July, mixing his form in lesser grade.

Why he can win: He comes into the race in winning form having dug deep to take out the Bendigo Cup (2400m). He’s rock-hard fit after three consecutive runs at 2400m+.

Why he can’t win: He fell in to win the Bendigo Cup and this is much harder. He started $51 in last year’s Melbourne Cup and failed to finish.

23. KALAPOUR

Kris Lees-trained gelding who won his way into the Cup with victory in Saturday’s Lexus Stakes (2500m). A superb frontrunning ride from Oliver in a slowly-run race got him home there and it’s unlikely that race would’ve knocked him around too much.

Why he can win: You’d struggle to find a fitter horse coming into this. Not only is he on the quick back-up, but he’s basically been in work since February with a short freshen-up in June.

Why he can’t win: The Lexus looked an average affair on paper and the race was nothing more than a sit-and-sprint. He’s at least a couple of rungs below the topliners.

24. TRUE MARVEL

Veteran stayer who hasn’t won on the flat since scoring by 16 lengths in a BM78 Highweight over 3800m at The Valley in November 2021. He looks up against it, to put it politely.

Why he can win: He desperately wants 3200m and has plenty of miles under his belt this campaign.

Why he can’t win: His last win was in a maiden hurdle at Hamilton and he hasn’t really fired a shot this preparation.

VERDICT

4. BREAKUP

5. VAUBAN

1. GOLD TRIP

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT

12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (BEST ROUGHIE)

$100 BETTING STRATEGY

$30 each-way on Breakup (4)

$40 boxed quinella 1, 3, 4, 5

This article originally appeared on Punters.com.au and was reproduced with permission.

Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2023: Runner-by-runner preview, tips and betting strategy