Melbourne Cup tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy runner-by-runner Cup analysis
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy rate the chances of each runner in the $7.75m Melbourne Cup.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances of every runner in the $7.75 million Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on Tuesday.
SUGGESTED BETS
RON DUFFICY’S TIPS
1. STOCKMAN
2. Deauville Legend
3. Realm Of Flowers
4. Gold Trip
RAY THOMAS’ TIPS
1. MONTEFILIA
2. Deauville Legend
3. Knights Order
4. Stockman
1: GOLD TRIP
Ron Dufficy: Gold Trip has captured everyone’s attention with his good runs in the Cox Plate after striking trouble and Caulfield Cup at his previous start. He definitely has the class angle although he is yet to race past 2400m.
Ray Thomas: Gold Trip is a high class stayer and has the honour of carrying the number one saddlecloth even though he has only one race. His Caulfield Cup runs and Cox Plate efforts were very good.
2: DUAIS
Dufficy: Duais is a quality mare. She has won the Queensland Oaks, Coongy Handicap, Australian Cup and Tancred Stakes but she has been a touch off the ball so far this preparation. But she is too good to dismiss with the record that she has, especially from the inside draw.
Thomas: Duais didn’t have much luck in the Caulfield Cup but she will appreciate getting back to Flemington where she won the Australian Cup so impressively earlier this year. One of the main chances.
3: KNIGHTS ORDER
Dufficy: He’s an on pace stayer who has returned in great form. His three runs at two miles have resulted in wins in the Brisbane Cup and Sydney Cup. If they forget about him up front he could well be off and gone. He is there to run a good race especially with the sting out of the track which he loves.
Thomas: Knights Order can win the Melbourne Cup. As you mentioned Ronnie, he’s a proven two-miler, he’s in great form this spring and his Caulfield Cup run was a beauty. The wet track is also to his advantage.
4: MONTEFILLIA
Dufficy: She appeared back on track with an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup with not much luck. We know this has been her target all along. She has a great staying trainer in David Payne and he has been patient with her. This is Montefilia’s first try past 2400m but I think she could well be ready for it.
Thomas: Montefilia is a four-time Group 1 winner so there is no doubting her class. I loved the way she powered home in the Caulfield Cup to just miss a place. She’s my Cup tip.
5: NUMERIAN
Dufficy: Numerian is going well in the right races but he hasn’t won past 2200m. He has to be regarded as a slight distance risk.
Thomas: Numerian is a talented stayer who will race on speed and make his own luck. His Caulfield Cup run was sound but I agree the 3200m is the query.
6: WITHOUT A FIGHT
Dufficy: Without A Fight has a consistent record overseas, he rarely runs a bad race. The key is that William Buick comes over to ride him. I’m very wary of this horse, there’s good talk around town about him.
Thomas: There are a lot of good judges in the corner of Without A Fight. His form in England this year is very good and he has won up to 2800m. He’s right in this race.
7: CAMORRA
Dufficy: Trainers Ben and JD Hayes have their first runner in the cup. He needs it dry so that’s a worry but he can race on speed. I would think he needs to go to another level looking at his Irish form.
Thomas: Camorra did win the Curragh Cup well but failed behind champion stayer Kyprios in the Irish St Leger. He does handle wet tracks and he might be one at odds.
8: DEAUVILLE LEGEND
Dufficy: Deauville Legend is a lightly-raced, young stayer with similar credentials to the 2018 Cup winner Cross Counter. Kerrin McEvoy has a great record in the Melbourne Cup and gets a good chance to add to his record there. He has the right form lines overseas and should be hard to beat if he brings his A game to town. The only little bit of query on him now is how wet this track is going to get as he has no form on wet tracks.
Thomas: Deauville Legend was a dominant winner of the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York with subsequent Cox Plate minor placegetter El Bodegon well behind in third placing. He’s been the long-time Cup favourite and will be hard to beat.
9: STOCKMAN
Dufficy: I’m really warming to him. He’s a tough horse who has had a lovely preparation. He scored a terrific win on the soft in the St Leger at Randwick then last start he gave every indication he was spot on with a terrific little warm up run in the Rosehill Cup on Saturday.
Thomas: Stockman is a tough stayer who will run a strong 3200m. I agree he’s had the right build-up to the Cup and the wet track conditions are in his favour.
10: VOW AND DECLARE
Dufficy: He hasn’t won a race since winning this race in 2019 although his lead up form is quite likeable and he could well put in a peak performance here back to the two miles with a terrific trainer in Danny O’ Brien.
Thomas: Vow And Declare is definitely going better this spring than he has since he won the Cup three years ago. It’s all been about one race for this horse and we know he will stay the trip.
11: YOUNG WERTHER
Dufficy: Another O’Brien galloper. He has only won one race He has placed in the ATC Australian Derby and Victoria Derby and two Turnbull Stakes. He could run well here at quite big odds.
Thomas: Young Werther has proven himself at a very high level, he can stay and Flemington is his track. There is a lot to like about his chances including his odds – he’s one of the better longshots.
12: HOO YA MAL
Dufficy: Hoo Ya Mal ran second in the English Derby earlier this year so he obviously has plenty of staying ability. He’s a young horse going to two miles for the first time but there is some confidence in the camp that he is ready to run a good race.
Thomas: Hoo Ya Mal is still a three-year-old by northern hemisphere time but he demonstrated his class with that Derby second. I feel he might be 12 months away but I’m not writing him off.
13: SERPENTINE
Dufficy: Serpentine ran on Saturday and looked good, fighting hard for second in the Archer Stakes. He might be finding his form at the right and the quick back-up might work in his favour if the conditions are testing.
Thomas: Serpentine showed a glimpse of his old form in the Archer. It’s worth remembering he did win the English Derby two years ago with a brilliant frontrunning effort.
14: DAQAINSWEET JUNIOR
Dufficy: He went fantastic last preparation winning the Adelaide Cup before his third in the Sydney Cup behind Knights Order. He ran only 10th in the Bart Cummings last start but wasn’t beaten that far. He can stay and I think he has a top 10 chance here.
Thomas: There are classier horses in this race but few who have his 3200m credentials. This isn’t the strongest Melbourne Cup field and Daqiansweet Junior will keep grinding away.
15: GRAND PROMENADE
Dufficy: Grand Promenade hasn’t had much racing since winning the Bart Cummings and running sixth in the Melbourne Cup last year. I didn’t think he handled the wet last week but the stable can never be discounted in these staying races.
Thomas: Grand Promenade wasn’t beaten a long way at Moonee Valley last start but his preparation has been geared towards this race only. He can run top 10 but it would be a surprise if he won.
16: ARAPAHO
Dufficy: Arapaho is an iron horse who gets in light, Ray. He is racing so consistently considering he has got form around Durston and Stockman. He might be one of the $101 chances but he is not without a hope.
Thomas: How tough is Arapaho? He’s been in full training since March and has had 14 starts leading into the Cup. He’s held his form and continued to improve through a long campaign. The wet track is also in his favour.
17: EMISSARY
Dufficy: Emissary found his form in the Geelong Cup last start although this is up another level and he has to go two miles. The Mike Moroney stable usually know what’s needed to be competitive for this race and he will peak for the big day.
Thomas: He was very good at Geelong. Genuine stayer who is one of the more appealing lightweight chances. I can’t have him winning the Cup but can sneak into the placings.
18: LUNAR FLARE
Dufficy: She’s a Bart Cummings winner beating Francesco Guardi who then turned the tables on her in the Moonee Valley Cup. She loves Flemington and is ready to run well. She presents at the right time and is in form.
Thomas: Lunar Flare’s Bart Cummings win was good and she backed that up with a solid run in the Moonee Valley Cup. She handles soft and heavy tracks and her form suggests she will be very competitive.
19: SMOKIN’ ROMANS
Dufficy: He won the Naturalism Stakes and the Turnbull Stakes but it didn’t pan out for him in the Caulfield Cup. He’s going to be very popular with his adaptability. He should get into the box seat early and handles all types of conditions.
Thomas: Smokin’ Romans started favourite in the Caulfield Cup but nothing went right for him. He’s a Group 1 winner this spring and he’s the ‘weight’ horse of the Cup with only 51.5kg.
20: TRALEE ROSE
Dufficy: She won the Geelong Cup winner last year before running ninth in the Melbourne Cup. She was better in the Caulfield Cup but still has to improve to be in the finish.
Thomas: Tralee Rose held her ground in the Caulfield Cup and was only beaten about four lengths. She’s probably not going as well this spring as she was 12 months ago but could run top 10 again.
21: POINT NEPEAN
Scratched.
22: HIGH EMOCEAN
Dufficy: She was vindicated when she won the Bendigo Cup last week grinding away in what I think looked a weak race. At least she ticks the wet track box if needed.
Thomas: High Emocean ran well in the Bart Cummings before winning the Bendigo Cup. She’s one of only three last start winners in the field and she’s from the right stable.
23: INTERPRETATION
Dufficy: You can’t disrespect the stable in these staying races. It was reported he was lame last start but he was obviously cleared by the vets and does get a beautiful weight drop. A lot of talk about him early in his preparation to say he was a Cup horse. He’s not hopeless.
Thomas: Interpretation started favourite in the Bart Cummings when he ran a close third and he had excuses at Geelong. Bred to stay all day and is a lightweight chance.
24: REALM OF FLOWERS
Dufficy: I quite like this mare and the market has found her now. She is a strong staying mare. She loves to race in space when fresh. Her performance in the Metropolitan when the tempo was against her was outstanding and the rain in the last few days has given her a really good chance.
Thomas: Realm Of Flowers charged to the line to just miss in The Metropolitan. Good mare who has hit form at the right time and has beaten the handicapper.
Originally published as Melbourne Cup tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy runner-by-runner Cup analysis
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