James Cummings shooting for Group 1 success at Randwick with star colts Aft Cabin and Golden Mile
James Cummings can set a personal milestone if Aft Cabin can win the Randwick Guineas or Golden Mile takes out the Canterbury Stakes at Randwick.
Horse Racing
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Godolphin trainer James Cummings is on the verge of a career-best Group 1 season with his crack colts Golden Mile and Aft Cabin at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
Cummings has trained eight Group 1 winners so far this season to equal his season best set in 2018-19.
Champion Anamoe has ignited the Cummings stable’s season with five Group 1 wins and the promise of more to come during the Sydney autumn carnival.
Golden Mile has also contributed to Cummings’s big-race success with his Caulfield Guineas win last spring and he is on the second line of TAB Fixed Odds betting at $6.50 behind New Zealand’s outstanding mare, Imperatriz ($1.90) for the Group 1 $600,000 Canterbury Stakes (1300m).
“He only had the one run fresh-up, he was always going to improve with that run and if he can just get back on track with a nice run from a decent draw it could set up the remainder of his campaign,” Cummings said of Golden Mile who hasn’t raced since resuming with a second placing in the Expressway Stakes in late January.
Cummings also has veteran Cascadian ($15) resuming in the weight-for-age sprint but conceded the 1300m is short of the gelding’s best.
Aft Cabin has firmed into $2.60 favouritism for the Group 1 $1 million Randwick Guineas (1600m) after a couple of huge bets of $6,000 at $2.90 and $9,000 at $2.70.
“Yes he had a hard run last time and we were disappointed seeing him finishing out of the placings,” Cummings said of Aft Cabin’s fifth in the Hobartville Stakes last start.
“When you get to this top level at set weights against three-year-olds things have got to go right for you more than they go wrong.
“We’ve got to be very bullish about the way the horse is going. We are seeing the progress of a really talented horse.”
THE BEST BARRIERS
The best barriers at Royal Randwick for the last 3 years (in order of wins)
1000m: 4,5,6,1
1100m: 2,3,6,10
1200m: 6,7,4,3
1300m: 1,7,2,5
1600m: 3,4,2,1
2000m: 2,1,5,6
THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: Navajo Peak $7-$5.50 and Carolina Fire $13-$8.50
Race 2: Cylinder $3.50-$3.80-$3.70-$3.30-$3-$3.10-$3.20 with bets of $870 at $3.30, $733 at $3.70, $1,300 at $3.20, Red Resistance $1.85-$1.65-$1.70-$1.75-$1.70 after bets of $1,500 at $1.85, $2,000 at $1.70 twice, $1,000 at $1.70
Race 3: Learning To Fly $1.85-$1.80-$1.75-$1.80-$1.65 with some big bets including $2,355 at $1.85, $2,500 at $1.80, $2,858 at $1.70, Mathkhoora $15-$11-$10-$9.50-$8.50
Race 4: Sacramento $4.20-$3.70-$3.50-$3.30-$3.60-$3.70, Athabascan $10-$9-$8.50-$7-$6.50, Bullfinch $10-$7.50-$7
Race 5: Economics $3.60-$3.10-$3.20-$3.10-$3-$2.90-$2.50 after bets of $1,154 at $3.60, $1,054 at $2.90, $1,112 at $2.80, $1,200 at $2.70, $1,300 at $2.60, Zoukerino $11-$12-$9-$9.50-$10
Race 6: Remarque $5.50-$5-$4.80-$4.60-$4.80 after bets of $750 at $5.50, $700 at $4.80, Passive Aggressive $9-$9.50-$10-$7-$7.50-$8, Giga Kick $2.80-$2.90-$2.80-$2.70-$2.40 with bets of $1,000 at $2.90, $1,000 at $2.80, $1,200 at $2.70, $1,300 at $2.60
Race 7: Lombardo $15-$17-$18-$12, Imperatriz $3-$2.40-$2.50-$2.25-$2.40-$2.30-$1.90 after heavy backing including $2,000 at $3, $2,500 at $2.50, $1,500 at $2.50 multiple times, $3,000 at $2.40, $1,500 at $2.30, $2,000 at $2.05, $2,000 at $2, $2,110 at $1.95, Electric Girl $11-$9.50-$9-$8.50
Race 8: Osipenko $6-$5-$4.80-$4.60 with bets of $3,500 at $5, $1,000 at $4.80, Aft Cabin $2.90-$2.60-$2.70 including two big bets of $6,000 at $2.90, $9,000 at $2.70
Race 9: Roots $2.50-$2.40-$2.30-$2.25-$2.20-$2.15-$2.20 after bets of $1,334 at $2.50, $1,430 at $2.40, $1,000 at $2.25, $1,000 at $2.20, Gin Martini $101-$81-$51-$41-$61-$71
Race 10: Sky Command $6-$3.60-$3.40, Bring The Ransom $26-$19-$31-$21-$19, Written Beauty $15-$11-$10
EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 1,2
Race 4: 1,3,6,8
Race 5: 1,3,7
Race 6: 1,2,3,8
QUADDIE
Race 7: 2,8,11
Race 8: 2,3,4,5
Race 9: 2,8,11
Race 10: 2,4,9,10
PRICE CHECK
Impertariz (race 7) has been backed as if unbeatable in the Canterbury Stakes, firming from $3 into $1.90 including bets of $2,000 at $3, $2,500 at $2.50, $1,500 at $2.50 multiple times, $3,000 at $2.40, $1,500 at $2.30, $2,000 at $2.05, $2,000 at $2, $2,110 at $1.95.
TRIAL POINTERS
Red Resistance (race 2) is presently on the second line of betting, priced at $6 with TAB Fixed Odds to take out the Golden Slipper in two weeks . The son of Russian Revolution and Rubiton Stakes winner Heatherly is unbeaten in his two starts including in the Listed Canonbury Stakes beating the one-time Slipper favourite King’s Gambit and subsequent Silver Slipper placegetter Shinzo. Red Resistance has been kept up to the mark for Saturday’s Todman Stakes with a blazing trial win at Warwick Farm on Feb 16.
Mathkhoora (race 3) creates a huge amount of interest on Saturday’s Randwick Guineas card. The Team Hawkes-trained filly is by the current Champion Australian Sire I Am Invincible and wears the same colours as her 2014 Golden Slipper winning dam, Mossfun whose offspring also includes last year’s Festival Stakes winner, Dajraan. Mathkhoora could not have been any more impressive when winning her 900m heat at Rosehill on Feb 27 in preparation for Saturday’s Reisling Stakes.
SECTIONAL STARS
Casual Connection (race 1) is a New Zealand-bred son of Spring Champion Stakes winner Complacent and a close relative of So Casual who was ridden by Damien Oliver when he won the 1998 New Zealand Derby. Casual Connection boasts a handy C.V of two wins and three placing from his seven starts. The gelding’s most recent appearance was his near last to first win at Newcastle in a Midway mile on Feb 11.
Raging Bull (race 4) is a David Payne-trained gelding lining up in the Listed Randwick City Stakes (200m) on the weekend in what will be his sixth visit to Sydney’s racing headquarters. Interesting, the son of Bull Point is yet to finish in the placings at Randwick but it is worth bearing in mind his five starts there were in (chronological order) the Spring Champion Stakes, Randwick Guineas, ATC Derby, Frank Packer Plate and the City Tattersalls Cup. Raging Bull was beaten seven lengths and finished well down the order in the Parramatta Cup 14 days ago but can be excused given the favourable on-pace circumstances of the race.
BEST BET
Economics (race 5) has gone back to the trials after being scratched at the barriers at Rosehill last month and he did everything right and bolted in at Hawkesbury. He ran well in the Group 1 CooImore Stud Stakes last spring and resumes in a winnable Fireball. The Annabel Neasham-trained three-year-old is a promising young sprinter and the one to beat.
VALUE BET
Carolina Fire (race 1) is a genuine mare racing in good form. She should be able to find the front from her good draw early and could easily take control of the race. She was placed in similar grade over this trip two starts back, drawn well and gets in with a lightweight. Carolina Fire is good value around $8.50.
THE JUDGMENT
ROYAL RANDWICK
R6: Challenge Stakes (1000m)
Richard Haynes (TAB): “This is a race and half! I may be way off the mark, but this just feels like time for Remarque to really step up. He was terrific in winning first up and Team Hawkes have kept him up to the mark with a sharp recent trial. He’ll settle near the speed and be hard to beat. The Everest winner Giga Kick makes his return to the races here, and if he’s matured and furnished he becomes a frightening prospect for his opposition. He’ll likely settle back but we know the finish he possesses. Eduardo is a crowd favourite and it’s going to be great seeing him at the races again. Don’t let Passive Aggressive under your guard, she’s a smart mare and has to be respected.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Think Paulele will get to silly odds here as he returns to his favourite track for the first time in 11 months where he has won five times from seven starts and is yet to miss a place. Nice easy trial to keep him mad fresh for this as well. Speed will be on here from Eduardo and Passive Aggressive so looking for a finisher.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Four of the top five in the market are resuming here so not the easiest race on paper. Eduardo has proven himself at this level many times over and is three from three over 1000m at Randwick. Any rain around will only further help his cause. Remarque won well first up over the same track/trip and can be in the finish with natural improvement. Passive Aggressive opened at $14 when the market went up but punters didn’t let it last long and a continual stream of money has seen him shorten to $8.50.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Very tricky race for mine with a host of chances and a number of horses first up. I think the market is key. Giga Kick has been best backed $2.65-$2.50 ahead of Eduardo who has also been steadily supported $5.50-$4.80. Those two account for over 70 per cent of the hold so far but punters still cautious at this stage.”
Hamish Ferguson (TAB): “The TAB Everest winner Giga Kick resumes here and is two from two fresh. He’s the best backed runner in the race with us to date and punters think he can replicate his last run at Randwick.”
Verdict: Giga Kick
R7: Canterbury Stakes (1300m)
Richard Haynes (TAB): “Imperatriz is a beauty and no doubt she looks hard to beat, but she’s no value at her current TAB price. Artorius is a huge talent and has been a frustration for punters, but I’m putting my faith. He’s had a good break since his UK exploits, and if they roll along in front I expect him to be strong late. At the price, he looks a good gamble. Golden Mile is a very good colt and gets all the favours from his inside draw. He’s had a slight freshen up since his terrific return and expect he runs a huge race second up. Imperatriz comes to Sydney a very fit and in form mare. Electric Girl is flying.
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Just can’t get my head around Imperatriz being so short as she ventures away from home for the first time at start number 18 and coming back in distance at her fourth run this campaign, something she has never done in her career. Artorius is a little bit of an enigma but at this stage well overs at $7 for mine. Resumes off his European sojourn but showed zip and intent in his barrier trial along with a much better start. Looked great last Saturday in his track gallop here as well.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “There has been a really strong push from punters for the NZ import Imperatriz but I thought Artorius could upset the favourite. He has a habit of getting into trouble in the run or leaving it too late but I think they have worked him out now and Zac Purton takes the ride. Converge didn’t come up in the Spring but may be able to add to some value to the exotics here first-up.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “A very strong push for the Kiwi raider here in Imperatriz who was backed immediately on Wednesday and has been a good firm $2.80-$1.90. We’re happy to see her and think the price is too short. Could be short of his best at 1300m but Cascadian appeals here at the $13. Can find the middle lanes and will be hitting the line hard.”
Hamish Ferguson (TAB): “Imperatriz absolutely dominates betting in this one, accounting for nearly 80 per cent of investments and has firmed from $3 into $1.90. Don’t discount the Godolphin pair of Cascadian ($15) and Golden Mile ($6.50) at good odds.”
Verdict: Imperatriz
R8: Randwick Guineas (1600m)
Richard Haynes (TAB): “I’ve gone looking for value again and there was plenty to like about the first-up run of Matcha Latte. This long striding some of Maurice has always been a talent, and I can see him settling midfield and being very good at the end of 1600m. Aft Cabin is simply too good to leave out. He’s drawn awkwardly again but if he can obtain some cover and get a few easy sectionals, his turn of foot we know is dazzling. Osipenko and Zou Tiger are obviously big players.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “A total of eight come through the Hobartville Stakes with some of them stretching to a mile for the first time in their career. Osipenko improved, courtesy of a much kinder run than first-up to win that race and I can’t see him going backwards from it. Slots in beautifully again and his only 1600m run resulted in a narrow third to Golden Mile in the Caulfield Guineas. He’ll do me.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Matcha Latte’s trial leading into the Hobartville was excellent and he ran right up to that, less than half a length third behind Osipenko and Zou Tiger. They were both second-up there and he was first-up, so I expect so natural improvement from him and he looks over the odds around the $10 mark. I thought the favourite Aft Cabin looked under the odds around the $2.60 mark. He endured a tough run last start and I’m not sure that was the ideal lead up for this.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Punters are looking to forgive Aft Cabin who has been heavily supported $3-$2.60. We’re happy to lay him. Osipenko gets a perfect run again and will be cuddling him from Matcha Latte and Williamsburg who we both give great chances. Williamsburg especially looks a good bet at the price ($17).”
Hamish Ferguson (TAB): “A two-horse race according to our customers. Aft Cabin is the best backed runner in the race, only slightly ahead of Osipenko. The pair account for nearly 80 per cent of the hold on the feature. Good luck splitting the two!”
Verdict: Osipenko
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Apprentice Zac Wadick thought he might be a chance to land a lightweight Group 1 ride during the spring carnival but never expected to pick up one of the favourites for The Metropolitan.
Rain only concern for Moody filly at Flemington
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