Early Oil: Tips and analysis for 2022 Caulfield Cup Day

An old warhorse could upstage his younger rivals in the Caulfield Cup while a promising import should return to winning ways on Saturday.

Could 2019 Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare turn back the clock in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup? Picture : AAP.

Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s massive Caulfield Cup Day card.

BEST BET

CAP DE JOIE (Race 2, No.11)

Cap De Joie chased well when beaten just over a length at Sandown last time. She was impressive in wet ground at her previous two runs and can bounce back.

VALUE BET

EXCELIDA (Race 8, No.3)

Excelida broke through for her first Group win at Flemington last time out and hit the line well in heavy ground first-up. She’s a great each-way chance again.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 6/1, 3, 7, 8, 14/5, 8, 12, 14/1, 3, 9, 15

$100 flexi for 41.66 per cent

BIG6

5, 8, 12, 14/1, 3, 9, 15/1, 2/3, 9/1, 2, 7, 10, 17/5, 13, 15

$100 flexi for 10.41 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1, 2, 9

Race 7: 1, 3, 9, 13

Race 8: 1, 2, 7, 10, 17

Race 9: 5, 13, 15

$100 flexi for 55.5 per cent

Impressive Cranbourne debut winner Climbing Star will attempt to stay unbeaten in the first race of Saturday’s Caulfield Cup meeting. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images.

RACE 1 (12:15PM): TILE IMPORTER TROPHY (1400m)

Expecting a heavy surface at Caulfield on Saturday, which will make life tough for punters but CLIMBING STAR (7) could start the day with a win. She was impressive winning on debut at Cranbourne and should measure up to this. QUANG TRI (1) resumes after a great winter campaign and won a jumpout leading up to this. HELL HATH NO FURY (3) will be fitter for two runs back and wasn’t far away at Sandown. DESIAH (5) ran on OK at Sandown second-up and won her maiden in heavy ground first-up.

SUGGESTED BET: Climbing Star to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Quang Tri $4 – $3.10.

RACE 2 (12:50PM): LAMARO’S HOTEL GRAND HANDICAP (1700m)

Happy to back CAP DE JOIE (11) to get back to winning ways at Caulfield after a solid second at Sandown last time. She impressed in rain-affected ground at her previous two runs and the rise in trip will be perfect. SAINT BATHANS (6) ran on hard at Bendigo and is unbeaten on heavy ground. RIGHT YOU ARE (3) hit the line steadily when resuming and will be better for the outing. SEINERS EXPRESS (5) has been thereabouts in both runs this time in and is a heavy track winner.

SUGGESTED BET: Cap De Joie to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Cap De Joie $2.60 – $2.15.

RACE 3 (1:25PM): GROUP 3 CAULFIELD CLASSIC (2000m)

MR MAESTRO (1) is doing everything right on his path to the Victoria Derby and can continue on his winning way in this. He won easily in heavy ground two runs back so the rain won’t affect his chances. RED SUN SENSATION (2) has improved at every outing and will be competitive again. DISTRUSTFUL AWARD (6) showed good staying potential with his easy Mildura win and could improve. MURAMASA (5) was honest in the Stutt Stakes and will be fitter.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 6.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Red Sun Sensation $7 – $6.50.

Kiwi three-year-old Mr Maestro can continue his charge towards the Victoria Derby at Caulfield on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images.

RACE 4 (2PM): GROUP 3 ETHEREAL STAKES (2000m)

Tough race for three-year-old fillies on the VRC Oaks trail. MOKO (1) was scratched from the Thousand Guineas for this and will be fitter for two runs back. She’s placed both heavy track runs. FOXY CLEOPATRA (7) bolted in at The Valley second-up and should be fine at 2000m. PAVITRA (3) was well held in the Group 1 Flight Stakes in Sydney but this is easier and she could improve. WHISPERING LADY (14) was OK in the Edward Manifold Stakes and this distance could suit her.

SUGGESTED BET: Moko to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Moko $8 – $5.50.

RACE 5 (2:35PM): LISTED GOTHIC STAKES (1400m)

EPONYMOUS (8) was luckless before running on well when narrowly beaten at The Valley second-up. He’ll be fitter for that and should go close again. HE’LL RIP (14) was a strong maiden winner at Bendigo second-up and should continue to improve. ANGRY SKIES (12) was solid at Sandown but comfortably won his maiden in heavy ground on debut. YAK ISHI (5) is a developing three-year-old that should run well again.

SUGGESTED BET: Eponymous to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Angry Skies $4.80 – $4.20.

RACE 6 (3:10PM): LISTED ALINGHI STAKES (1100m)

MILEVA (1) was outclassed but not disgraced in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at The Valley after a close second in heavy ground two runs back. She’ll find this easier. LEMPICKA (15) impressed in heavy ground first-up and could spring a surprise in this tougher race. SHALSTAR (9) is flying in easier races in NSW but could measure up to this. JUAN DIVA (3) won over this course first-up last time in and has trialled well.

SUGGESTED BET: Mileva to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Juan Diva $7 – $6.

RACE 7 (3:45PM): GROUP 2 CAULFIELD SPRINT (1000m)

GENERATION (2) ran an excellent fourth in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at The Valley and the stallion has a good record at Caulfield. BEAU ROSSA (1) is a class galloper resuming from a spell with two trials under his belt and he has won a couple over 1000m. EXPRESS PASS (6) was close-up at his only winter run and won’t mind the wet ground. DRAGONSTONE (9) won at Listed level before a spell and trialled well in Sydney leading up to this.

SUGGESTED BET: Generation to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Generation $4.80 – $4.20.

Smart mare Excelida will attempt to post another Group 2 win in Saturday’s Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images.

RACE 8 (4:30PM): GROUP 2 TRISTARC STAKES (1400m)

A good field will tackle one of the harder races of the Caulfield Cup card but EXCELIDA (3) could be over the odds despite her last start win at Flemington last time out. She went well on heavy ground first-up and will be fitter. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING (9) fought on well in heavy ground last time and might be ready for 1600m. PRIDE OF JENNI (13) was solid in Group 2 company at Flemington and likes wet ground. KISSONALLFOURCHEEKS (1) was close-up at The Valley and is worth another chance.

SUGGESTED BET: Excelida each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Pride Of Jenni $10 – $8.

RACE 9 (5:15PM): GROUP 1 CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)

This one of the harder Caulfield Cups in recent years with barriers and the heavy ground only making life harder for punters. If you like one yourself, go with your gut feeling. Going with VOW AND DECLARE (7) to produce a minor upset. He’s racing in great heart this time in and ran second in the 2019 Caulfield Cup. He’ll be strong late. BENAUD (10) has tracked perfectly towards the Caulfield Cup and should go well. DUAIS (2) was OK in the Turnbull Stakes but will be suited over this trip. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (17) has done everything right this time in and must be respected.

SUGGESTED BET: Vow And Declare each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Numerian $15 – $12.

RACE 10 (5:50PM): GROUP 3 MOONGA STAKES (1400m)

BANDERSNATCH (5) can end the Caulfield Cup Carnival on a high for punters. He’ll improve on his strong first-up third at Sandown and the gelding enjoys racing on heavy ground and he loves 1400m. CATALYST (13) ran on well before peaking on his run at Sandown second-up but might be ready to fire now. OLD FLAME (15) was OK last Saturday but will be better for another experience at Caulfield. LADY OF HONOUR (16) will push forward and should be hard to run down again.

SUGGESTED BET: Bandersnatch to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Bandersnatch $9 – $6.50.

Originally published as Early Oil: Tips and analysis for 2022 Caulfield Cup Day