Early Oil: Gilbert Gardiner’s tips, quaddie selections and race-by-race analysis for The Valley on Saturday

News Corp form analyst Gilbert Gardiner analyses every race at The Valley on Saturday and his best bet is in the Group 1 Moir Stakes.

News Corp form analyst Gilbert Gardiner takes an early look at Saturday’s Group 1 Moir Stakes meeting at The Valley.

BEST BET

ESTRIELLA (Race 9 No.6)

VALUE BET

THE MARG FACTOR (Race 2 No.13)

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 8, 10/2, 4/3/2, 3, 8

$100 flexi for 555 per cent

BIG6

3, 4/2, 3, 8/2, 3/1, 2, 3/1, 6, 9/1, 3, 8

$100 flexi for 30 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2, 3, 7

Race 7: 1, 2, 11

Race 8: 1, 6, 9

Race 9: 1, 2, 8, 10

$100 flexi for 92 per cent

■■■■■

RACE 1: 12:10PM THREE-YEAR-OLD HANDICAP (1600m)

EVAPORATE (1) won impressively at The Valley last start courtesy of a brilliant heads up ride from Michael Dee, who caught the opposition napping with an early move. COCOBILL (4) is the testing material and should be able to dictate the race from barrier two. The Vadamos gelding won his Seymour maiden by 4¾ lengths. TWIN ENGINE (6) returns to town, having made amends for a head-scratcher first up at Bendigo with an emphatic win on the Ballarat synthetic. Placed third on debut at Flemington last January so has her share of ability.

SUGGESTED BET: COCOBILL (4) win

RACE 2: 12.40PM BENCHMARK 74 (1600m)

THE MARG FACTOR (13) has been knocking on the door at Sandown the past two starts and could figure third up with a significant jockey upgrade in Damian Lane aboard. Lane has won and placed twice in four starts on the mare. LE MANS (4) caught the eye from back in the field last start at Caulfield, the imported filly’s first Australian start. Respect. WAIMARIE (1) shooting for a hat-trick and back-to-back Valley wins. Include OUR EMPRESS ZOE (6) in exotics, hard fit and consistent performer.

SUGGESTED BET: THE MARG FACTOR (13) each-way

RACE 3: 1.15PM BENCHMARK 84 (1600m)

LE ZEBRA (8) has raced well the past three starts. Luckless three back at Flemington and then returned to Headquarters for a dominant win. Last start could not go with the top three late but only 1½ lengths behind Rise At Dawn, who has franked the form since. ARAMCO (1) has strong Sydney formlines and could be hard to hold out despite a big weight. NAILS MURPHY (10) placed third the past three starts, win would not surprise especially with a bit of weight relief going up slightly in grade.

SUGGESTED BET: LE ZEBRA (8) each-way

Le Zebra can get back in the winner’s circle on Saturday. Picture: Reg Ryan/Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 4: 1.50PM BENCHMARK 78 (2040m)

LINCOLN ROCKS (4) looked every bit the winner last start at The Valley only to be touched off by LAUDING (2), who maintained a perfect record (three from three) at the track. Could they fight out the finish again? NAME DROPPER (15) should be an improver out in distance. Drawn wide but has the benefit of Blake Shinn in the saddle. GOOD OIL (1) raced well first up at The Valley over 1600m and suited by the rise in distance. Watch for him late for any trifectas and first fours.

SUGGESTED BET: LAUDING (2) win

RACE 5: 2.25PM CHAUTAUQUA STAKES (1200m)

ARKANSAW KID (3) has thrived since being gelding and has nothing but upside. Could be tricky in a small field on Saturday but bank on Lindsay Park to have the $1.1m earner primed to win again. Arkansaw Kid won first-up as a gelding last start at Caulfield, finishing over the top of WHO DARES (4), who has continued to race consistently. SAVANNAH CLOUD (2) flies fresh, finished top three in all seven starts first-up including two wins.

SUGGESTED BET: ARKANSAW KID (3) win

Arkansaw Kid can make it back-to-back wins as a gelding. Picture: Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 6: 3PM LISTED ATLANTIC JEWEL STAKES (1200m)

IMMORTAL STAR (2) went super last start at The Valley, scampering clear in the straight to hold out the fast-finishing and luckless Photograph. No reason why she cannot win again. SILMARILLION (3) finished second behind Ameena last start in the Silver Shadow and with even luck could go one better on Saturday at The Valley from an inside gate. SASSY JENNI (8) won on debut at The Valley and then placed third behind Growing Empire in Listed grade.

SUGGESTED BET: SILMARILLION (3) win

RACE 7: 3.35PM LISTED McKENZIE STAKES (1200m)

PUBLIC ATTENTION (3) just has to handle the turns at The Valley to be mighty competitive again. The Caulfield Guineas candidate won with authority on debut, travelled three wide and proved too strong for Ndola, who has franked the form since. Low draw tricky for the big striding Public Attention, but has favourite EPIMELES (2) inside him to potentially stay off the rail. Small field but a lottery race of sorts with runners priced behind $3.20 and $11. ANGEL CAPITAL (7) a knockout chance.

SUGGESTED BET: PUBLIC ATTENTION (3) win

RACE 8: 4.15PM SO YOU THINK STAKES (1500m)

PERICLES (2) has gone 12 months without a win – saluted on the corresponding card in Sydney last year – but raced exceptionally well, almost exclusively in the Group 1 arena. Up against hard fit horses here but should be too classy. DEVOTED (11) could run a cheeky race third up with Mark Zahra aboard. POUNDING (7) not without a chance of running into the money, won two of five starts at the track.

SUGGESTED BET: PERICLES (2) win

Estriella has the speed to burn her rivals in the Moir Stakes. Picture: Ross Holburt/Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 9: 4.50PM GROUP 1 MOIR STAKES (1000m)

ESTRIELLA (6) has the speed, class and pilot to get the job done on Saturday at The Valley. The Ciaron Maher-trained speed machine should be too fast and too good despite a wider than preferred draw, barrier eight of nine. Blue Diamond winner HAYASUGI (9) has returned in fine fettle and could challenge with a fly weight on Saturday. Don’t overlook. I WISH I WIN (1) to finish like a train behind a hot speed. LADY OF CAMELOT (8) next best.

SUGGESTED BET: ESTRIELLA (6) win

RACE 10: 5.25PM BENCHMARK 84 (1200m)

SUPERAZI (1) bailed up inside horses first-up at The Valley but well ridden by Tayla Childs to get into the money, found only one better. Yet to win at The Valley but placed in four of seven starts. MISS ARIA (8) must be respected back from a short freshen up. The Zoustar mare has finished inside the top four the past seven starts, including three wins. PIASTRI (10) has taken all before him this time in, won three of four and placed third second-up. The Ciaron Maher-trained sprinter is also nominated in Sydney.

SUGGESTED BET: SUPERAZI (1) each-way

Originally published as Early Oil: Gilbert Gardiner’s tips, quaddie selections and race-by-race analysis for The Valley on Saturday