Early Oil: Ciaron Maher-trained Herman Hess the best bet of Saturday’s Caulfield races
A Ciaron Maher-trained stayer should get a reward for consistency while a runner from the Symon Wilde camp can continue his rapid improvement at Saturday’s Caulfield meeting.
Horse Racing
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s big 10-race card at Caulfield.
BEST BET
HERMAN HESSE (Race 6, No.5)
Herman Hesse went down narrowly at Flemington but is ready to return to 2400m with three runs under his best. Ready to win.
VALUE BET
AUTUMN COLOURS (Race 2, No.8)
Autumn Colours let down like a promising type when scoring first-up. He could measure up to city grade over 1800m.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 3, 4, 11/1, 2, 4, 6/4, 7, 8, 9/3, 5, 8
$100 flexi for 52 per cent
BIG6
4, 7, 8, 9/3, 5, 8/4, 5, 10, 13/1, 6, 7/9, 13/7, 13
$100 flexi for 17.36 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 4, 5, 10, 13
Race 8: 1, 6, 7
Race 9: 9, 13
Race 10: 7, 13
$100 flexi for 208 per cent
RACE 1: 12:15PM THE MCCAFE HANDICAP (1200m)
A good track is certain for Caulfield. EXCOMMUNICADO (4) impressed winning first-up and should race handy to the speed. BARBY’S DOLL (3) finished well to score at Pakenham and should continue to improve. DON’TDOUBTLAYLA (2) impressed winning in Sydney first-up and will be fitter. LADY OF POISE (5) won well on debut and his gone well in two Sydney trials.
SUGGESTED BET: Excommunicado to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Lost $5 – $2.50.
RACE 2: 12:45PM ive> HANDICAP (1800m)
Tricky race but AUTUMN COLOURS (8) impressed with the way he let down to score first-up and should relish 1800m. YOSEMITE FALLS (7) was too good from the front at Seymour second-up and will be fitter. OUR COUVER (6) raced on the speed and tried hard when up in trip at Geelong and is worth including again. FANG IT (4) is another that can roll forward and be in this for a long way again.
SUGGESTED BET: Autumn Colours each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Smokin’ Giant $5 – $2.90.
RACE 3: 1:20PM ROBERT HUNTER HANDICAP (1100m)
JOHNNY ROCKER (3) is a short-priced favourite but will be hard to beat after his excellent first-up second to an in-form sprinter at Flemington. MISS ICELANDIC (4) was too good in a small field at Sale and is a chance to make it three in a row. BIFROST (1) will be fitter for a solid first-up outing at Flemington. TANTO (11) got the money at Sandown and is hard fit for this.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 3, 4, 11
TAB MARKET MOVER: Johnny Rocker $2.80 – $2.
RACE 4: 1:55PM GROUP 3 LAMARO’S HOTEL CHAIRMAN’S STAKES (1000m)
A field of seven two-year-old engaged here but happy to have a small speculator on EXPRESS YO’SELF (6) fresh after a solid second to a handy type in December. COLEMAN (1) was a dominant debut winner in the spring and has had time to develop. ENEEZA (2) has shown plenty of ability and should go well fresh. COUNTEROFFENSIVE (4) must be respected after his Sydney trial win last month.
SUGGESTED BET: Small win bet Express Yo’self/box trifecta 1, 2, 4, 6.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Coleman $3.20 – $2.90
RACE 5: 2:30PM JOHN MOULE HANDICAP (1400m)
A big field engaged but PUNCH LANE (7) should have every chance to return to winning ways after a good third at Sandown last time out. SIR ROCKFORD (9) will give a start but could spring a surprise first-up. REGAL ZEUS (8) was a strong on-pace winner at Geelong and is worth thought again. HOAAH HAVANA (4) is consistent and will be fitter for two runs in.
SUGGESTED BET: Punch Lane to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Punch Lane $4.80 – $3.90.
RACE 6: 3:05PM MAL SECCULL HANDICAP (2400m)
HERMAN HESSE (5) is ready to win after strong placings at his last two runs while he has everything in his favour with only 53kg at Caulfield. FEARENTLESS (8) is going well in easier races and could show up here. GRAND PROMENADE (1) will be fitter for his first-up placing and 2400m suits second-up. MONBAHER (3) will improve on a good first-up effort at The Valley.
SUGGESTED BET: Herman Hesse to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Herman Hess $3.80 – $3.10.
RACE 7: 3:40PM SPORTSBET THE FEED HANDICAP (1800m)
TYPHOON HARMONY (4) is on a seven-day back-up but has shown enough in recent runs to suggest he can go close at Caulfield. BROOKLYN BOSS (13) went down narrowly at The Valley, but a weight drop could help him measure up here. MOVEFORLEX (10) can show something fresh after a quiet trial at Geelong last Monday. DUBLIN JOURNAL (5) is racing in great heart and is a chance to bounce back.
SUGGESTED BET: Typhoon Harmony each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Star Vega $9 – $6.50.
RACE 8: 4:20PM GROUP 3 LAMARO’S HOTEL GEOFFREY BELLMAINE STAKES (1200m)
Competitive race but A LITTLE DEEP (7) has raced in terrific form in four runs this time in to earn a shot at this even stakes race. VAGRANT (6) steps up in class but her form is hard to known while WROTE TO ARATAKI (1) won this race last year and is well in at the weights. CUTE AS (9) is racing well enough to fill a placing.
SUGGESTED BET: A Little Deep to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: A Little Deep $7 – $4.80.
RACE 9: 5PM CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (1100m)
MIDTOWN BOSS (9) has been kept fresh after an impressive first-up win and should have every chance from barrier three. KIN (13) was a touch disappointing at Flemington last start but has raced well on this track in the past. SHIRSHOV (7) weakened in a high-pressure race at The Valley last Saturday but will be fitter. JUNGLE JIM (1) is flying and should be hard to run down again.
SUGGESTED BET: Box quinella 1, 7, 9, 13.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Midtown Boss $2.80 – $2.30.
RACE 10: 5:40PM SPORTSBET GET ON EXTRA HANDICAP (1400m)
A big field to finish but happy to back WHO DARES (7) each-way dropping in class after an excellent placing in stakes class at Flemington. JIMMYSSTAR (13) has impressed in all three Australian runs and can measure up. MAGNASPIN (16) fought on to score at Sandown last start and will be fitter. BRUNG KING (2) is unbeaten this time in and is worth including again.
SUGGESTED BET: Who Dares each-way/Quinella 7 & 13.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Jimmysstar $2.80 – $2.15.
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