Early Oil: Caulfield best bets and preview for All-Star Mile day
Nugget won’t have to contend with Mr Brightside and can return to the winner’s stall at Caulfield on All-Star Mile day.
Horse Racing
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s All-Star Mile meeting at Caulfield.
BEST BET
NUGGET (Race 5, No. 4)
Nugget drops in class after a steady first-up effort behind Mr Brightside and Pride Of Jenni. He drops sharply in class for this and will be much fitter.
VALUE BET
BANK MAUR (Race 10, No. 2)
Bank Maur has finished strongly in two excellent efforts to start his autumn campaign. There looks to be enough speed on to give him a chance in the last.
SNEAKY CHANCE
DANNY’S ST DARCI (Race 7, No. 5)
Danny’s St Darci is fresh for this after two solid runs in January and races best over 1200m. She’s capable of producing a surprise at Caulfield.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 5, 6, 7, 9/1, 4, 5/1, 2, 6/1, 2, 3, 4
$100 flexi for 180 per cent
BIG6
1, 2/1, 2, 3, 4/2, 3, 5, 11/1, 12/1, 4, 6, 7, 14/1, 2, 9, 10
$100 flexi for 7.8 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 5: 2, 3, 5, 10, 11
Race 6: 1, 12
Race 7: 1, 4, 6, 7, 14
Race 8: 1, 2, 9, 10
$100 flexi for 50 per cent
RACE 1: 12.15PM GROUP 3 SPORTSBET VICTORIA GOLD CUP (2000m)
Expecting firm footing for the entire Caulfield meeting. CARINI (7) gets his chance to post another win after two good efforts in tough races and he’ll be able to control the race. MANKAYAN (5) tried hard behind the smart Dunkel last time out and always races well at Caulfield. MURAMASA (3) will be much fitter for his steady first-up effort while GEAR UP (4) will also be improved for a good fresh run.
SUGGESTED BET: Carini to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Carini $2.40 – $1.90.
RACE 2: 12.45PM VOBIS GOLD REEF (1600m)
A small field to chase good prizemoney but the weights suit FISTSOFFURY (1), who chased home the smart Another Wil second-up and should have every chance from barrier one. AMBASSADORIAL (2) improved second-up and looks likely to have an unchallenged lead. INEXORABLE (6) is a promising maiden that could sneak a placing in this while SOCKS NATION (7) is worth including dropping in class and distance.
SUGGESTED BET: Fistsoffury to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Socks Nation $3.90- $3.30.
RACE 3: 1.20PM SHARP EIT SOLUTIONS HANDICAP (1200m)
WHITE BEAR (9) showed an added dimension first-up when racing on the speed and bolting in. He’s a promising type that can measure up here. BOLD MANNER (6) has been freshened since her last run at Sandown and is a 1200m winner. ICE SYMPHONY (7) was too good at Ararat last time and will be fitter again for that. KENTUCKY CASANOVA (1) should improve on his effort at The Valley.
SUGGESTED BET: White Bear to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: White Bear $3.40 – $2.90.
RACE 4: 1.55PM REWARD HOSPITALITY VOBIS GOLD CARAT (1000m)
JIGSAW (1) has 61kg but drops significantly in class from his spring assignments while the sprinter is much better suited back at 1000m first-up. SEMILLION (5) has plenty of pace and should be competitive if he reproduces his spring form. VIVIANE (4) faded at Group 2 level first-up so the class drop since. END JOURNEY (6) is racing well in easier contests and could sneak in a placing here.
SUGGESTED BET: Jigsaw to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Viviane $4.20 – $3.40.
RACE 5: 2.30PM LISTED QUAYCLEAN ANNIVERSARY VASE (1600m)
Ciaron Maher has found the perfect second-up assignment for NUGGET (1) after he showed enough when resuming at Group 1 level last time. This is the easiest race he has contested for more than a year. KEATS (2) got the money in Tassie last time out and looks to control the race from the front. ARRAN BAY (6) was a fighting winner at Flemington but drops 6.5kg for this. SHAIYHAR (7) will be suited over 2000m but could show something fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Nugget to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Keats $7 – $4.80.
RACE 6: 3.05PM LISTED RIGHTSIZE 365 REDOUTE’S CHOICE STAKES (1100m)
SKY CAP (1) has gone down narrowly at both runs to date but could continue to improve with the extra race experience. BOLD BASTILLE (2) was too quick down the straight at Flemington and should be the hardest to beat. SHE SMASHES (4) has shown promise in two Pakenham runs and can measure up. IMMORTAL STAR (3) can improve on her narrow first-up win.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 3, 4
TAB MARKET MOVER: Immortal Star $14 – $10.
RACE 7: 3.15PM CATANACH’S 150 YEARS THE MYSTIC JOURNEY (1200m)
PEACE TREAY (11) takes on older rivals in this $200,000 race but she’ll carry 52kg and has Jamie Kah aboard from a perfect gate. She’s good enough to capitalise. DANNY’S ST DARCI (5) is fresh for this, but her last two efforts were good enough for this. SEONEE (3) is likely to give a start but is yet to miss a place over 1200m and will be charging late. SHAIME (10) should control things from the front and could be hard to run down.
SUGGESTED BET: Peace Treaty to win with a small each-way Danny’s St Darci.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Peace Treaty $2.90 – $2.60.
RACE 8: 4.15PM THE SHARP EIT ALL-STAR MILE (1600m)
MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) has produced two terrific efforts at Group 1 level this time in and should only be harder to beat over 1600m. PRIDE OF JENNI (12) led was only grabbed late when resuming and will again give her backers a great sight from the front. Kiwi galloper DESERT LIGHTNING (8) has beaten top horses at home recently and should have every chance. Expecting DOM TO SHOOT (5) to improve with the benefit of his first-up run.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 5, 8, 12
TAB MARKET MOVER: Mr Brightside $1.85 – $1.80.
RACE 9: 4.55PM XTREME FREIGHT COUNTRY MILE SERIES FINAL (1600m)
A big field engaged here but happy to back the lightly-raced DASHING DUCHESS (7) to improve off her first-up win at Ballarat while barrier four will be perfect for her. SIR ATLAS (1) improved well to score at Terang second-up and should continue to improve. HASSELTOFF (4) ran on well at Ballarat and drops 5.5kg for this. SEVILLANA (14) is drawn awkwardly but is racing consistently.
SUGGESTED BET: Dashing Duchess to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sir Atlas $6.50 – $4.60.
RACE 10: 5.35PM LISTED SPORTSBET BEL ESPRIT STAKES (1200m)
Interesting finish to the day but the likelihood of good pace up front will suit BANK MAUR (2), who has closed well in two excellent efforts to start his autumn campaign. INDIAN PACIFIC (1) was too good at The Valley last time and should give them something to chase. GRAND IMPACT (10) hasn’t raced for 16 months but is a classy type that has jumped well. REY MAGNERIO (9) was scratched from the Newmarket Handicap for this and will enjoy the class drop from the Oakleigh Plate.
SUGGESTED BET: Bank Maur each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Maharba $15 – $9.50.
Originally published as Early Oil: Caulfield best bets and preview for All-Star Mile day
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