Early Oil: Brad Waters’ best bets and race-by-race analysis for Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington
Jockey Mark Zahra can get the job done for punters in the last race while a smart Ballarat-trained mare could go around over the odds at Saturday’s Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington.
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Group 1 Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington.
BEST BET
PUNCH LANE (Race 10, No.13)
Punch Lane was a dominant winner in an easier race at Caulfield and is a horse on the rise. He can win again at Flemington.
VALUE BET
FOXY FRIDA (Race 5, No.2)
Foxy Frida is a quality mare that has a solid first-up record. She loves Flemington and can show up at a good price on Saturday.
EARLY QUADDIE
2, 3, 6, 8, 9/3, 4, 11, 13/1, 2, 3, 4, 10/2, 4, 10, 13
$100 flexi for 25 per cent
BIG6
1, 2, 3, 4, 10/2, 4, 10, 13/1, 2, 3, 7/1, 4/6, 12/5, 9, 13, 13
$100 flexi for 7.8 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 7
Race 8: 1, 4
Race 9: 6, 12
Race 10: 5, 9, 13, 13
$100 flexi for 156 per cent
RACE 1: 12.15PM GOODWOOD TROPHY (2000m)
A good track is certain for Flemington. EL SOLEADO (2) is a developing type that has won his last couple in good fashion while the 2000m will be perfect. STAR VEGA (7) should have finished closer at Caulfield and will relish the bigger Flemington track. CRIMSON LIGHT (6) was OK in an on-pace dominated race at The Valley and will be much fitter. ARAMCO (3) led all the way to score at this course last time and should be in this for a long way.
SUGGESTED BET: El Soleado to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Aramco $3.80 – $2.70.
RACE 2: 12.45PM RONALD MCDONALD HOUSE CHARITIES TROPHY (1100m)
OUROBOROS (1) is a smart three-year-old colt that was narrowly beaten in Group 3 company last time and trialled well at Cranbourne. PRAIRIE FLOWER (7) is hard-fit and should enjoy a class drop after a good effort here last time. WIGGUM (3) was OK when resuming but will be fitter for this. SQUAD (2) weakened at The Valley last time but can improve dropping back in trip.
SUGGESTED BET: Ouroboros to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Ouroboros $5 – $4.20.
RACE 3: 1.20PM LISTED TCL TALINDERT STAKES (1100m)
Tricky race with so many first-starters engaged. COUNTEROFFENSIVE (2) did enough behind quality youngsters Coleman and Eneeza first-up and will be better for it. LITTLE STIRRER (8) faded first-up but will be much better for the experience. AARDVARK (3) went well on debut and showed enough in his Caulfield trial. EJECT (6) has looked good at the trials so keep an eye on him.
SUGGESTED BET: Counteroffensive each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Champagne Tonight $4 – $3.50.
RACE 4: 1.55PM ROYAL ASCOT PLATE (1600m)
RUMBLED AGAIN (11) didn’t have much luck at Caulfield last time and went well here two runs back. She’s a good each-way chance. WHO DARES (4) tried hard behind the smart Jimmysstar last time and should go well. GREEN BELT (14) has built fitness at his last two outings and is ready to improve. KHOEKHOE (3) can be hard to catch but has ability.
SUGGESTED BET: Rumbled Again each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Who Dares $4.40 – $4.
RACE 5: 2.30PM GROUP 3 FRANCES TRESSADY STAKES (1400m)
Good field of mares but FOXY FRIDA (2) is always around the mark at this level and has a good first-up record. VAGRANT (4) continued her rapid improvement to win a Group 3 race last time and has a fitness advantage. ETERNAL FLAME (10) was a dominant Caulfield winner and can measure up. REVOLUTIONARY MISS (1) is a good galloper that will find this to her liking.
SUGGESTED BET: Foxy Friday each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Revolutionary Miss $8 – $5.50.
RACE 6: 3.05PM GROUP 3 THE TAB VANITY (1400m)
Tough race but going to have a speculative play on LUIJZIKA (12), who was a strong Geelong winner and could continue to develop. GRINZINGER BELLE (4) has drawn awkwardly but improved with racing in the spring and has had more time to develop. MOLLYKNICKERS (2) is a talented filly that is capable of winning this first-up. SPARKLING (10) is promising and could sneak a placing.
SUGGESTED BET: Small win bet Luijzika.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Mollynickers $3.80 – $3.40.
RACE 7: 3.40PM GROUP 3 CS HAYES STAKES (1400m)
Tough race but RIFF ROCKET (1) is an outstanding three-year-old that loves Flemington and could have the class to win over this shorter trip. RUN HARRY RUN (3) thrived with racing during the spring and has had more time to develop. OTAGO (7) has been terrific in easier races and could measure up here. KING COLORADO (2) got home well first-up and will only be improved.
SUGGESTED BET: Riff Rocket each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Riff Rocket $8.50 – $7.
RACE 8: 4.20PM GROUP 1 BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING (1200m)
Excellent edition of the Lightning Stakes. IMPERATRIZ (4) has a great first-up record and had no trouble with the 1000m last time in. PRIVATE EYE (1) is a top sprinter and will be charging home late. ESPIONA (5) is better over further and should be competitive here. BELLA NIPOTINA (3) is most consistent at this level and trialled well.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 3, 4, 5.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Bella Nipotina $9 – $6.50.
RACE 9: 4.55PM LISTED THE ELMS HANDICAP (1400m)
JIMMYSSTAR (12) is too short to back but he’s an exciting type that impressed winning first-up and he can handle this class rise. CROSSHAVEN (6) wasn’t far away at Group 2 level last time and will be suited over 1400m now. SAVANNAH CLOUD (4) got the money first-up last time in and always races well over 1400m now. KA BLING (11) went down narrowly at Caulfield but has a perfect gate here.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 4, 6, 11, 12.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Jimmysstar $1.85 – $1.50.
RACE 10: 5.35PM YORK TROPHY (1400m)
PUNCH LANE (13) was dominant in an easier race at Caulfield but could continue his development in this harder race. LOUNGE BAR RUBI (5) is fresh for this but is a talented type and races well over 1400m. HE’S OUR BONNEVAL (9) ran on well first-up at Flemington and is yet to miss a place second-up. MASTER MONTARO (14) broke through at Sandown and will be fitter again.
SUGGESTED BET: Punch Lane to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Punch Lane $2.60 – $2.50.
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