Early Oil: Best bets, preview for Caulfield on Saturday

Form analyst Jett Hatton provides the early mail for Saturday’s 10-race card at Caulfield and an impressive debut winner looks a standout bet.

Jambalaya looks hard to beat on Saturday. Picture: George Sal/Racing Photos

Racenet form analyst Jett Hatton takes an early look at Saturday’s meeting at Caulfield.

The track is rated a Good 4 while the rail is out 10m for the entire circuit.

BEST BET

JAMBALAYA (Race 7 No.3)

JAMBALAYA was an impressive winner on debut at The Valley. Won by 1½ lengths but still had a few more gears up the sleeve. Short odds but looks the winner and standout bet of the day.

NEXT BEST

REGAL POWER (Race 2, No.1)

Dual Group 1 winner plus All-Star Mile conqueror REGAL POWER is well past his prime but definitely still has the ability to be winning this. Forget his last start flop, it was his first go in 39 starts on a heavy track and he hated it. Looks much better suited on Saturday and if he can reproduce his fourth to Muramasa two back, he wins this.

IS IT ME (Race 5 No.1)

Consistent galloper Is It Me looks one of the better bets of the day. He’s a horse with a bit of upside and the way he won last time out proves that. Gets some weight relief with Celine Gaudray’s claim and a repeat effort of his last run has him winning this.

VALUE BET

PASCERO (Race 9 No.7)

PASCERO is a much more effective horse on dry ground so I’m willing to forgive his last start defeat on a Soft 6. The 1400m is his sweet spot too and from barrier six, he should get all the favours in running and prove hard to beat.

EARLY QUADDIE

5,6,9/3,6,8/1,6/6,7,10,11

BIG 6

1,6/6,7,10,11/1,3,5,12/3,4,6/2,7,8,11/10,14,17

QUADDIE

1,3,5,12/3,4,6/2,7,8,11/10,14,17

RACE 1: 12:15PM IVE > HANDICAP (1000m)

I’m going to steer away from the favourite in the opener and side with $500,000 purchase LITTLE STIRRER (8). She looked good at the jumpouts and her dam (Teaspoon) won the Group 3 Widden Stakes as a two-year-old. Godolphin’s TRAFFIC WARDEN (1) gets here off a debut second to Storm Boy at Rosehill. Does have the race experience but drops from 1100 to 1000m. Unsure if that’s a plus or a negative at this stage of his career. CENTRE SQUARE (7) has contested stakes races at his first two starts when somewhat fancied by the market. Will appreciate the easier contest. EXPRESS YOURSELF (8) looks the next best.

Suggested bet: Little Stirrer (8) to win.

TAB market mover: Traffic Warden $2-$1.80

RACE 2: 12:45PM EVERGREEN TURF HANDICAP (2400m)

Dual Group 1 winner plus All-Star Mile conqueror REGAL POWER (1) is well past his prime but definitely still has the ability to be winning this. Forget his last start flop, it was his first go in 39 starts on a heavy track and he hated it. Looks much better suited on Saturday and if he can reproduce his fourth to Muramasa two back, he wins this. ALHAMBRA LAD (3) is three for three at the trip so getting out to the mile and a half certainly suits him. Should be thereabouts. FERAGO (4) brings super formlines into this having run third to Military Mission in the Herbert Power a few runs back. Yet to miss a place in four runs at the track and distance. HERMAN HESSE (2) made the trip to Taree for the Cup last time out. It was an even effort and while first-up, he had been given four trials.

Suggested bet: Regal Power (1) to win.

TAB market mover: Grand Pierro (6) $5-$4.20

Regal Power could have a class edge. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 3: 1:20PM MILLENNIUM SERVICES GROUP HANDICAP (1600m)

The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained FULLPROOF (5) is on an upward spiral having won two of his four starts. This is his toughest test to date but he does look to have the scope to handle the rise in class. Former Nick Ryan galloper EISHAA (9) has won three of her four starts for Paul Preusker. She too faces a rise in grade but she’s improved with each run this campaign and is now rock hard fit. PROSCENIUM ARCH (6) started $8.50 two runs back in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks. Didn’t fire a shot first-up in a pretty sharp race but can bounce back here at odds over a mile and in a much easier race. PIAGGIO (3) turned in an even first-up performance at odds. Drawn wide here but likely to take good improvement into the race.

Suggested bet: Fullproof (5) to win.

TAB market mover: Eishaa (9) $10-$8

RACE 4: 1:55PM BERTOCCHI SIMPLY THE BEST HANDICAP (1400m)

I’ve always been a fan of QUANG TRI (3) and while she may not have lived up to the early hype, I think she’s struck a suitable race here. Gets blinkers on for the first time and maybe that will see her unleash the turn of foot she showed early on in her career. Stakes-placed RUNNING BY (8) was good first-up when running on for second behind South Of Houston. She had not raced since her runner up finish in the Bendigo Guineas so should bring plenty of improvement going into Saturday’s race. RUMBLED AGAIN (6) is another that turned in a good first-up performance. She’s won three times at the 1400m so the rise in trip suits.

Suggested bet: Quang Tri (3) each-way.

TAB market mover: Longtimedreaming (4) $6-$4.80

RACE 5: 2:30PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1200m)

Consistent galloper Is It Me (1) looks one of the better bets of the day. He’s a horse with a bit of upside and the way he won last time out proves that. Gets some weight relief with Celine Gaudray’s claim and a repeat effort of his last run has him winning this. It took seven races for PINK BEAU TRY (6) to break his maiden but he’s gone on with it since. Did had the perfect ride when winning last start at Cranbourne and does lose Craig Williams. LE DERRIERE (8) has a good set up from barrier five with Jamie Kah engaged. Also has a good record at the distance (5:1-2-0)

Suggested bet: Is It Me (1) to win.

TAB market mover: Rosalia (2) $16-$11

Is It Me can win again on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 6: 3:05PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (2000m)

Former Kiwi BLUE MOON (7) made a winning debut on Australian soil over a mile at The Valley and his form over there suggests he’ll be even better over further. A drop in weight can see STARIANNE (11) bounce back. She did run fourth in the Group 1 Australasian Oaks at this trip last campaign so the rise to 2000m suits. COMMANDER HARRY (6) should be ready to do something third-up out in distance while MY BROTHERS KEEPER (10) should be thereabouts as well.

Suggested bet: Blue Moon (7) to win.

TAB market mover: Blue Moon (7) $5-$4.50

RACE 7: 3:40PM NEDS SUPERSIZED SATURDAY HANDICAP (1200m)

JAMBALAYA (3) was an impressive winner on debut at The Valley. Won by 1½ lengths but still had a few more gears up the sleeve. Short odds but looks the winner. OAK HILL (5) didn’t have a whole lot of luck on debut before his last start win at The Valley. Does probably want further now. One time Blue Diamond fancy VEECEE (1) is resuming after last being seen in the Vain Stakes when not doing much. The best of him gives this a shake. GINGER ‘N’ PINK (12) deserves to go in the numbers as well.

Suggested bet: Jambalaya (3) to win.

TAB market mover: Nothing of note.

RACE 8: 4:20PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1400m)

Handy four-year-old BEL AIR (3) turned in a super effort last time out behind Is It Me when eight weeks between runs. Suited by the step up to 1400m and the tight Caulfield track shouldn’t worry him. HELIX (6) turned in a forgive run last time out when posted four-deep without cover. Drawn poorly again but he does get a positive jockey change with Jamie Kah in the saddle. TASMAN PARK (4) has been racing well without winning. Held up until the 150m mark last time out so probably should have finished close. MASTERFUL (13) suited by the rise in trip is next best.

Suggested bet: Bel Air (3) to win.

TAB market mover: Bel Air (3) $4.50-$4.20

RACE 9: 5PM STOW ROBOTICS HANDICAP (1400m)

PASCERO (7) is a much more effective horse on dry ground so I’m willing to forgive his last start defeat on a Soft 6. The 1400m is his sweet spot too and from barrier six, he should get all the favours in running and prove hard to beat. GRAVINA (2) is the opposite, he’s much better on wet ground having not won on a dry track in 19 starts but he’s got the talent to be winning a race of this quality. Fourth-up now and he’s drawn well in barrier three. OUR REDENTE (8) was good first-up when beating all but Ghaanati. Will improve with the run under his belt plus the rise in trip. TIBBEIFGRIT (11) was fourth in Pascero’s Flemington win. Always improves second-up as well.

Suggested bet: Pascero (7) each-way.

TAB market mover: Dubai Poet (9) $7.50-$6.50

Pascero looks a good bet at odds. Picture: Michael Klein

RACE 10: 5:40PM CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (1200m)

Godolphin filly KIN (17) has the task of trying to win from barrier 18 but she’s a very talented horse. Only just got warm late first-up at Flemington, she’s much more effective around a bend and that was on show when turning in a dominant win at this track last campaign. PRANCING SPIRIT (14) is absolutely flying having won or run second at his last five starts. He too has a poor barrier but drops 4.5kg in weight. JUNGLE JIM (10) was OK first-up from quite a lengthy lay-off. He’ll be fitter for the effort and has won four of eight at the trip so the rise from 1000-1200m certainly helps. SHOHEI (18) deserves a mention as well. Was a big drifter first-up.

Suggested bet: Kin (17) to win.

TAB market mover: Sandy Prince (15) $14-$11

Originally published as Early Oil: Best bets, preview for Caulfield on Saturday