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Caulfield Cup: Runner-by-runner guide for the 2400m classic on Saturday

We have analysed the chances of every runner set to line up in Saturday’s $5 million Group 1 Caulfield Cup.

Racenet
5 min read
October 19, 2023 - 10:34AM
Gold Trip is $5 to win the Caulfield Cup. Picture: Reg Ryan - Racing Photos
Gold Trip is $5 to win the Caulfield Cup. Picture: Reg Ryan - Racing Photos

The 2023 running of the Caulfield Cup has star galloper Gold Trip carrying the 58.5kg topweight.

As of Friday, the track is rated a Good 4 ahead of the $5m classic at The Heath.

Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.

• The Armchair Punter’s Caulfield Cup day tips

• How Ben Melham got the ride on Gold Trip

• Laurie Sainsbury and Cameron Happ’s tips

1 — GOLD TRIP

Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner has returned in super order this spring after a disappointiung autumn in Sydney. Absolutely towelled them up in the Turnbull Stakes and while history suggests it’s a tough task carrying 58.5kg to victory, it’s only 1kg more than what he did when a close second last year. His last-start win indicates he’s going better than what he was in 2022.

VERDICT: Impossible to dismiss.

2 — WITHOUT A FIGHT

The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained galloper comes here a month between runs after he was last seen hitting the line strongly behind Alligator Blood in the Underwood Stakes. Thought he was a better run than Soulcombe that day too and the form out of the race is good with Alligator Blood winning again. Going to be an improver out to the 2400m, drawn to get a soft run in transit and Mark Zahra sticks instead of siding with Gold Trip.

VERDICT: Hard to beat.

3 — BREAKUP

Hard to line up this Japanese raider but he does seem to have a bit of class about him. He’s got a fourth at Group 1 level over 3200m in Japan so the trip won’t be an issue and he’s likely to sit on speed or even lead from the good barrier.

VERDICT: Can’t ignore.

4 — MONTEFILIA

Has returned in good order this campaign for the new stable and comes here off the back of a strong win in the Group 2 Hill Stakes. Came into this race last year off the back of a third placing in the Hill Stakes before she ran fourth to Durston in the Caulfield Cup with 1kg more. Has a better barrier this year and Blake Shinn goes aboard.

VERDICT: Each-way claims.

5 — FRANCESCO GUARDI

Has been racing well over unsuitable trips in weight-for-age races but gets his chance to pounce fourth-up out to 2400m and with 54kg on his back. Does have a tricky barrier in 15 but that’s offset by James McDonald riding and the way he hit the line in the Turnbull Stakes suggests he’ll be competitive on Saturday in a more suitable race.

VERDICT: Good value at double figures.

6 — WEST WIND BLOWS

Strong effort at his Australian debut in the Turnbull Stakes when he worked early and stuck on to finish second when Gold Trip came with his big run. Better suited under the handicap conditions and he’s drawn to get the gun run from barrier two.

VERDICT: Has to be respected.

7 — NONCONFORMIST

Back for another crack at the Caulfield Cup having run in the race the last two years which included a second to Incentivise in 2021. His three runs this campaign have all been solid and he was strong through the line when fourth in Alligator Blood’s Might And Power Stakes win. Hasn’t been done any favours after drawing barrier 19 though.

VERDICT: Needs luck.

8 — SOULCOMBE

Going super. Electric win first-up over 1700m in the Heatherlie and then has turned in two strong efforts at Group 1 level since. Suited by the rise in trip to 2400m and he’ll be primed for this at his fourth run in. Suited under the handicap conditions to turn the tables on his last start third to Gold Trip and he’s drawn gate six with Craig Williams on board.

VERDICT: Can’t dismiss.

9 — DUKE DE SESSA

Interesting preparation having gone up from 1400-2000m for his second-up run when five weeks between runs. Did improve from his Memsie effort into the Turnbull when running on strongly out wide to grab sixth and he gets a positive jockey change with John Allen jumping on board. He is two for two at the trip and it’s his first time he gets to it in Australia.

VERDICT: Could be an improver at big odds.

10 — HOO YA MAL

Fancied for the Melbourne Cup last year and has turned in three OK runs since and was only run down by Montefila last in the Hill Stakes. Likely rolls forward from barrier eight with Tim Clark in the saddle and he should be at his peak fourth-up for this target race.

VERDICT: Needs to improve.

11 — RIGHT YOU ARE

Strong effort two runs back in the Underwood Stakes before having a tough run out wide in the Turnbull Stakes and not having anything left in the tank. Last year’s winning rider Michael Dee goes on board and he is a winner at his only 2400m run having taken out to Mornington Cup earlier this year.

VERDICT: Not the worst at a big price.

12 — EMISSARY

Runner-up in last year’s Melbourne Cup but doesn’t seem to be going as good this time in having been beaten 10 lengths at his last-start run in the Turnbull Stakes. Will enjoy the extra 400m.

VERDICT: Not going good enough.

13 — GOLDMAN

One-time Melbourne Cup favourite that has been disappointing at his three runs in spring and was beaten a long way at his last-start effort in The Bart Cummings. Drawn tricky in barrier 18 as well.

VERDICT: Needs to improve.

14 — OKITA SOUSHI

Comes here after finishing third of four runners in the Irish St Leger, beaten 6½ lengths that day. Was a winner over this trip at Ascot the start prior. Market seems the best guide and he’s friendless at $26.

VERDICT: Prefer others.

15 — FAME

Second to Kovalica in the Queensland Derby earlier this year but has been comfortably handled at his two runs this campaign against much easier opposition than what he faces on Saturday.

VERDICT: Not good enough.

16 — BOIS D’ARGENT

Honest effort in The Metropolitan when he didn’t have much room to work with. He’s been in work for a while so he’s rock-hard fit.

VERDICT: This looks too tough.

17 — SPIRIT RIDGE

Super in The Metropolitan when he beat all but Just Fine when giving that horse 2.5kg. Does have a strong record at the trip, drops in weight and should find himself on the speed.

VERDICT: Not the worst.

18 — VALIANT KING

Lightly raced stayer from the Joseph O’Brien stable that gets here with a light weight and Jamie Kah on his back. Did run second in the Group 3 Ballyroan behind Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban two runs back at this distance.

VERDICT: Can give this a shake.

19e — UNITED NATIONS

On the quick back-up after running second to Military Mission at this track and trip in the Herbert Power Stakes.

VERDICT: Has to improve.

SELECTIONS

1 - WITHOUT A FIGHT

2 - FRANCESCO GUARDI

3 - GOLD TRIP

4 - VALIANT KING

Originally published as Caulfield Cup: Runner-by-runner guide for the 2400m classic on Saturday

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/horse-racing/caulfield-cup-runnerbyrunner-guide-for-the-2400m-classic-on-saturday/news-story/8206a78bdd7197026f6c9f09717cb424