Caulfield Cup 2023: Two-minute form guide for $5 million race
Here’s why every horse in the Caulfield Cup can and can’t win Saturday’s $5 million classic in two minutes.
Horse Racing
Don't miss out on the headlines from Horse Racing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Here is a two-minute form guide for the chances of every horse in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
We look at why each runner can and can’t win.
For the Caulfield Cup field, form, odds comparison and much more, click here.
1. GOLD TRIP
Why he can: Melbourne Cup winner who’s absolutely flying. Turnbull win was phenomenal.
Why he can’t: 58½kg in a handicap is a tough ask. Ben Melham has never ridden him in a race.
2. WITHOUT A FIGHT
Why he can: Set for this race for months. Underwood run was fantastic. Soft gate.
Why he can’t: 1800m to 2400m second-up with four weeks between runs is unconventional.
3. BREAKUP
Why he can: Japanese gallopers have a great record in this race. Good gate. Damian Lane.
Why he can’t: Mixes his form. Hasn’t won for nearly a year.
• Caulfield Cup runner-by-runner preview
4. MONTEFILIA
Why she can: Big win last start in Hill Stakes. Has run fourth in this race the past two years.
Why she can’t: Will need a career peak to win this and can’t see it happening.
5. FRANCESCO GUARDI
Why he can: 2400m suits. Chris Waller/James McDonald combo.
Why he can’t: Turnbull run should have been better. Not sure he’s going well enough.
6. WEST WIND BLOWS
Why he can: Super run in Turnbull Stakes. Soft gate. Makes own luck. Tough. Down in weight.
Why he can’t: Jamie Spencer can get lost in Australia. Can he bounce from tough run?
7. NONCONFORMIST
Why he can: Ran second in this race two years ago.
Why he can’t: Wide gate. Run in the Might And Power last week was only average.
• Suspension rules Nash Rawiller out of Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate
8. SOULCOMBE
Why he can: Perfect prep. Upward spiral. Chris Waller. Craig Williams. Down in weight. Soft gate. Sharp turn of foot.
Why he can’t: Is usually slow out of the barriers so if he gets too far back will need luck.
• Tony Brassel’s Top 5 for the Caulfield Cup
9. DUKE DE SESSA
Why he can: Made some ground in the Turnbull. Is 2/2 at 2400m. John Allen is a great staying jockey.
Why he can’t: Is 3-4 lengths off the better horses. Will need everything to go his way.
10. HOO YA MAL
Why he can: Drops 6kg on his last start second to Montefilia. Gai trains. Good barrier.
Why he can’t: Has only placed once in four runs in Australia.
11. RIGHT YOU ARE
Why he can: Three solid prep runs for the 2400m. Micky Dee won this race last year.
Why he can’t: Beaten nearly eight lengths in the Turnbull. Has to improve too much to feature.
12. EMISSARY
Why he can: Runner-up in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Good trainer/jockey combo.
Why he can’t: Has only been average this preparation. Needs to lift considerably.
• Japanese raider ‘here to win’ Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup
13. GOLDMAN
Why he can: The likely leader in the race who could get his own way in front.
Why he can’t: Form hasn’t been up to scratch this prep. Melbourne Cup is more his target.
14. OKITA SOUSHI
Why he can: Excels at 2400m. They wouldn’t bring him from Europe if he wasn’t a chance.
Why he can’t: Comes here with only listed and Group 3 form.
15. FAME
Why he can: Second in the QLD Derby over 2400m in May. 2400m is his sweet spot.
Why he can’t: Ran ninth in a low level handicap last start. Huge step up.
• ‘He’s clearly the one to beat’: Big call ahead of Caulfield Cup
16. BOIS D’ARGENT
Why he can: Barrier 3 means he will do no work. Hard to find other positives.
Why he can’t: Beaten more than six lengths in the Metrop last start. This is a much stronger race.
17. SPIRIT RIDGE
Why he can: Close second in the Metropolitan last start. Drops 2kg. Will race on speed.
Why he can’t: He’s now a nine-year-old and simply not up to the better horses here.
18. VALIANT KING
Why he can: Gate 1 (although history is against him). 50kg. Jamie Kah rides. Brings some handy European form.
Why he can’t: Has only had seven starts so is very inexperienced. This looks a huge ask.
19. UNITED NATIONS (emergency)
Why he can: Handy second in the Herbert Power last week, which is usually a decent guide. Maher-Eustace trains.
Why he can’t: Has been beaten in BM78 races lately. Simply not good enough.
PREDICTED TOP 10 FINISHING ORDER
1st: Soulcombe
2nd: Gold Trip
3rd: Without A Fight
4th: West Wind Blows
5th: Breakup
6th: Hoo Ya Mal
7th: Montefilia
8th: Nonconformist
9th: Okita Soushi
10th: Francesco Guardi
Originally published as Caulfield Cup 2023: Two-minute form guide for $5 million race