Footy expert Mick McGuane predicts his Top 8 ahead of the 2021 AFL season
The addition of Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith could be huge for Geelong. But Mick McGuane has one massive question over the Cats.
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Collingwood: Out. Fremantle: In.
The Magpies look the most vulnerable of last year’s finals teams.
That’s bad news for Nathan Buckley as he stares down the final year of his contract with a forward line every bit as concerning as it has been in recent seasons.
Collingwood has a solid system, a good defence and a strong midfield.
But it also has a glaring weakness in attack.
The Magpies’ points for, scores from inside 50 percentage and forward 50 marks were ranked 13th, 16th and 16th last season.
Geelong, in comparison, was ranked No. 1 in all three facets.
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The Cats recruited Jeremy Cameron and Shaun Higgins to complement their forwards.
Where is this change with the Magpies?
Buckley must demand faster ball movement to give the forwards a chance.
In saying that, those forwards must get creative to gain separation and win more critical one-on-one contests.
Jordan De Goey and Jamie Elliott are desperate for more midfield time in 2021, but Buckley MUST do what suits the team, not the individuals.
Collingwood needs those two potential match winners to play predominantly forward.
Both should be spending 70 per cent of their time in attack.
Bucks must use All-Australian defender Darcy Moore as a swingman more often, given Jeremy Howe has returned from injury.
Mason Cox just doesn’t get the job done consistently enough.
Brody Mihocek is brave and workmanlike but the Pies are aching for a fearless marking forward that can consistently influence results.
Due to this concern I’ve left them out of my final eight, in favour of the Dockers.
MICK McGUANE’S PREDICTED TOP 8
1. PORT ADELAIDE
My biggest doubt on Port’s flag hopes last year was their lack of a key defender capable of playing on the monster forwards.
That was justified in the end.
But that part of the jigsaw puzzle might have been solved by the smart recruitment of Aliir Aliir.
He can take on some of the game’s dangerous key forwards, allowing Tom Jonas, Dan Houston, Hamish Hartlett and Darcy Byrne-Jones with a greater opportunity to play intercept, support roles.
All-Australian Charlie Dixon is the second-best contested mark in the game, behind Tom Hawkins, but can big Charlie string two good seasons together?
The speed of Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Steven Motlop and a fit Orazio Fantasia will test plenty of defenders.
For Port, 2020 was a missed opportunity. They were so close but as we all know football offers no guarantees. How much it hurt, time will tell.
UNDER THE PUMP
Will Aliir Aliir’s arrival threaten Trent McKenzie’s spot in defence?
2. RICHMOND
Richmond has gears and can go into overdrive in big games, evidenced by their three flags in four seasons.
They have the best big-game player in the competition, Dustin Martin.
Dusty is as fit, driven and prepared as he has ever been.
When he goes forward to complement Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt, the Tigers’ forward line looks potent.
The midfield is tough yet creative with Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia, Shai Bolton, Shane Edwards as well as unsung hero Kaidyn McIntosh and Kane Lambert, who rolls up from half forward when Martin spits forward.
They are selfless and all provide a point of difference.
Richmond’s defence is miserly.
And don’t underestimate the importance of ruckman Toby Nankervis with Ivan Soldo sidelined.
There are no egos and complacency here, only premiership medals.
UNDER THE PUMP
How much does Sydney Stack want a long-term AFL career? He is a talent, but must show more discipline.
3. WEST COAST
The Eagles could be the biggest beneficiaries of a normal season – if that happens.
They didn’t handle the hub last year, but were almost unbeatable on their Perth home deck with seven straight wins until the relentless Magpies produced an elimination final boilover.
I have some concerns about their growing injury list, with Luke Shuey and Elliot Yeo having some issues.
If they get the rub of the green with key players being available and can show their natural flair (think Liam Ryan), they will be hard to stop.
Tim Kelly will be better.
The Eagles gave up so much for him, but his first year with the Eagles was a long way short of his damaging Cats’ 2018 and 2019 form.
UNDER THE PUMP
Jack Redden is a bull, but is he still in the Eagles’ best team?
4. BRISBANE
It is all about attitude and workrate.
If you need a reminder, take a look at the Lions against Gold Coast two weeks ago.
They were -15 in post-clearance contested possession differential in the first half.
Their work rate was below an acceptable AFL standard and Gold Coast midfielders cashed in.
The attitudinal shift was stark after halftime. They were a different team.
For Brisbane, the final scoreline told the story of why footy is played above the shoulders.
Joe Daniher’s inclusion, providing he can stay healthy, bodes well for the club, and for Eric Hipwood.
Their conversion was better in the second half of the year, but must continue to improve.
Dayne Zorko and Hugh McCluggage kicked 17.36 collectively.
Lachie Neale is a star, and the Lions’ midfield is strong, so the pressure will come for spots.
UNDER THE PUMP
Have Grant Birchall and Daniel Rich still got leg speed against quick teams on fast tracks?
5. GEELONG
I’ve probably got the Cats too low as I admire their brand and what they stand for.
Their ability to score and efficiency inside 50 is a feature of their game.
They are a great contested-ball and clearance team, led by Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Cam Guthrie.
The addition of Cameron, Higgins and Smith could be huge, and the club’s record at GMHBA Stadium will ensure they are in the top four mix.
Their rock solid defence remains, though Mark Blicavs may spend more time down there given Harry Taylor’s retirement.
Their biggest concern is their ruck stocks.
Rhys Stanley will need support from Esava Ratugolea, given Blicavs’ defensive role.
I urge Chris Scott to allow his team to go into a different offensive mode in high-pressure games.
Putting speed on the game back of centre could be what the team needs to get them contending for a flag again in 2021.
UNDER THE PUMP
Will Rhys Stanley’s Grand Final performance last year haunt him in 2021? Can Zach Tuohy keep his spot with the emergence of a fit Jordan Clark?
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
The midfield depth can only be a weapon if Luke Beveridge gets a selfless buy-in from all.
Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and Tom Liberatore would be my starting mids, but where does that leave Adam Treloar, Josh Dunkley and Bailey Smith?
Those guys must be prepared to play alternate roles at times which requires accepting their role and not feeling frustrated.
The recruitment of Stefan Martin as a back-up ruckman to the undersized Tim English is good.
But please Bevo, don’t get seduced by thinking Martin can play forward. He can’t.
The Dogs must start beating top eight teams – they won only one game from eight encounters last year against the eventual top eight sides.
That change needs to start tonight.
UNDER THE PUMP
Josh Bruce arrived at the Whitten Oval on a lucrative long-term deal and needs to justify that after a disappointing 2020.
7. ST KILDA
The Saints’ fate could be determined in the first six rounds.
They take on the Giants (away), Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, Richmond and Port Adelaide (away).
They may have to do that without their ruck combination of Rowan Marshall and Paddy Ryder, as well as a growing injury list.
Their midfield must get better results with loose-ball differentials.
They must also improve their forward-half pressure game.
We know what Dan Butler can do (29 goals, 74 tackles), but he needs help from others.
Max King is a contested-marking beast.
By season’s end, he could be one of the game’s best key forwards.
The Saints can ill afford to lose to sides not in the hunt.
How did they squander a 31-point lead to North Melbourne in Round 1 last year and lose by two points?
UNDER THE PUMP
Where is Dan Hannebery’s career at? Can he return to his Swans form or is it beyond him?
8. FREMANTLE
I see similarities between Ross Lyon’s Saints when he first took over and what Justin Longmuir is doing with the Dockers.
Defensively, they are strong.
If they can increase their scoring profile, they can play finals.
Their back line is strong.
Their midfield is being regenerated with Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and Adam Cerra, so they are not as reliant on Nat Fyfe, David Mundy and Michael Walters to play in the middle.
Getting the forward line mix right is Longmuir’s next challenge.
Please play Fyfe in a 70/30 forward/mid split to help complement Matt Taberner, but also add Brennan Cox to the forward line considering proven defenders Joel Hamling and Alex Pearce could return from an injury-riddled 2020.
UNDER THE PUMP
Is there still room for Stephen Hill, or have younger players gone past him?
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