World Cup qualifiers: Socceroos games with Japan, Thailand to decide if they reach Russia or continue journey

IT’S crunch time for the Socceroos’ World Cup qualifying campaign. Drop points now and a potential two months of playoff games in Asia and Central America beckon.

Can the Socceroos get what they need from the Japan and Thailand games?

AN indifferent start where draws became the norm has left the Socceroos in a precarious qualification position for Russia 2018.

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While they are fortunate enough to have their destiny in their own hands, Ange Postecoglou’s side still face a nailbiting week where games against Japan and Thailand will decide their future.

Win both and they qualify — no question — and probably as group winners. A draw and a win might also be enough, but anything else leaves their situation murky.

Third place remains a distinct possibility — and that means up to four more games extending well into November and a travel schedule that could take them from Uzbekistan to Panama or Honduras.

It sounds complicated but it really isn’t when you look at the explanations below.

All the top two scenarios

Win, Win

Australia beat Japan and Thailand to qualify first.

Draw, Win

Socceroos pick up a point in Japan and then beat Thailand at home. And with Japan travelling to Saudi Arabia for their final game, four points would be enough to either win the group or finish second

Lose, Win or Win, Lose

This is where it gets complicated. Lose to Japan and then beating Thailand will get them to 19 points. In this scenario they will need Saudi Arabia to not win any of their remaining two games against UAE and Japan. If they beat Japan but somehow lose at home to Thailand then they will need Saudi Arabia to draw or lose to Japan. And that can only happen if the Saudis draw or lose to the UAE in their game this week.

Tiebreaker

If Australia beat Japan but lose to Thailand and Saudi Arabia beat UAE but lose to Japan. Both will finish on 19 points. It could also happen if the Socceroos only beat Thailand and the Saudis lose to UAE but beat Japan.

Draw, Draw

The Socceroos would then be on 18 points and more than likely out of contention for the top two. Qualification would essentially come down to UAE and Japan pulling off wins over Saudi Arabia.

Draw, loss or loss, draw

Again, progress would be down to the Saudis falling apart in their final two games. Not something they can contemplate.

Loss, loss

Hello, third place. Well, it should be, but UAE might make a late run at it if they win their last two games

Could South Korea actually fall to third? The Asian powerhouse has been struggling big time and face a huge game at home this week to leaders Iran which could shape their destiny. Uzbekistan could go second if they beat bottom side China while Syria could even enter the fray if they topple Qatar.

Asian World Cup qualifiers Group A

Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	Points
Iran	8	6	2	0	8	0	20
South Korea	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
Uzbekistan	8	4	0	4	6	6	12
Syria	8	2	3	3	4	5	9
Qatar	8	2	1	5	6	10	7
China	8	1	3	4	5	9	6

Key remaining games

August 31

South Korea v Iran, Syria v Qatar, China v Uzbekistan

September 5

Iran v Syria, Uzbekistan v South Korea

It’s a race in three and the scenarios are laid out above. UAE could mathematically force their way into the issue but need a dramatic collapse from one of the teams above them. Japan face both Australia and Saudi Arabia and could be the ones to miss out if they lose both games.

Asian World Cup qualifying Group B

Team	Played	Win	Drawn	Loses	GF	GA	Points
Japan	8	5	2	1	15	6	17
Saudi Arabia	8	5	1	2	15	8	16
Australia	8	4	4	0	14	8	16
UAE	8	3	1	4	8	11	10
Iraq	8	1	2	5	8	11	5
Thailand	8	0	2	6	4	20	2

Key Group B games

August 31

Japan v Australia, UAE v Saudi Arabia

September 5

Iraq v UAE, Australia v Thailand, Saudi Arabia v Japan

Playoffs

If they were to finish third

The Socceroos would then embark on a two-legged showdown with the third-placed team from Asian qualifying Group A. At this stage that would be Uzbekistan but South Korea and even Syria are possibilities. Those games are scheduled for October.

And there's more....

Win the Asian playoff and then the journey continues with a final playoff against the fourth-placed team from CONCACAF - that's the North and Central American Confederation. Those final standings won't be determined until October but at this stage it's looking like Panama, Honduras, Costa Rica or even the USA.

Good record

The Socceroos do have some positive history to drawn on if they end up a playing CONCACAF side. Back in 1993 they faced Canada as Ocerania champions in atwo-legged play-off, losing the away leg in Edmonton 2-1 before winning by the same scoreline in Sydney and then dominating a penalty shootout

The final piece of the Asian qualifying jigsaw is a game for the Asian playoff winner against USA or a Central American team for what ostensibly is the final World Cup berth.

The group games are not as far advanced as the Asian ones which means the opponent will not be decided until October.

Latest CONCACAF table (4th place plays off winner of Asian 3rd placed playoff)

Team	Played	Wins	Drawn	Loses	GF	GA	Points
Mexico	6	4	2	0	9	2	14
Costa Rica	6	3	2	1	9	4	11
USA	6	2	2	2	11	8	8
Panama	6	1	4	1	4	4	7
Honduras	6	1	2	3	6	14	5
Trinidad	6	1	0	5	3	10	3

Key games remaining

September 1

USA v Costa Rica, Trinidad v Honduras, Mexico v Panama

September 5

Honduras v USA, Costa Rica v Mexico, Panama v Trinidad

October 6

USA v Panama, Costa Rica v Honduras, Mexico v Trinidad

October 10

Honduras v Mexico, Trinidad v USA, Panama v Costa Rica

Originally published as World Cup qualifiers: Socceroos games with Japan, Thailand to decide if they reach Russia or continue journey