The numbers, the tactics and the questions: what Socceroos must do to secure place at the World Cup

SO let’s get the maths out of the way first. The Socceroos are in a precarious position, but they do have some agency still in how things will play out.

Yosuke Ideguchi celebrates scoring Japan’s second goal.

SO let’s get the maths out of the way first. The Socceroos are in a precarious position and their hopes of making the World Cup are balanced, but they do have some agency still in how things will play out.

Let’s assume Australia beats Thailand at home on Tuesday night in Melbourne (if they don’t, there’s an argument they don’t deserve to be at a World Cup).

Several hours later, Saudi Arabia will host Japan; if Saudi draw or lose, the Socceroos’ earlier win would mean they had qualified for the World Cup.

Yosuke Ideguchi celebrates scoring Japan’s second goal.

If Saudi Arabia beat Japan, then Australia would only qualify directly if they had beaten Thailand by two goals more than Saudi put past Japan – so 3-0 if Saudi win 1-0, 4-0 if Japan lose 2-0 and so on.

Otherwise it’s the play-offs. So the answer is to score goals, and quite a few. Easy right?

So far the Socceroos have scored 14 goals in nine games; eight of them in four home matches. That’s not an average to strike fear into a visiting defence, even one that has conceded 22 goals in nine games.

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That’s one of many issues Ange Postecoglou has to wrestle with in the coming days beneath his exterior of certainty. Postecoglou said after the game that he should be held responsible for selections and performances, but to what outcome?

The Socceroos boss took a series of calculated gambles on Tuesday night, and only the deployment of Trent Sainsbury as sweeper having not played since June was a success.

Poor Brad Smith on the leftwing has become a lightning rod for dissatisfaction with Postecoglou’s selections; not just because of his lack of competitive football in recent times, but for the fact that his raw speed is less and less of a makeweight for a questionable sense of positioning.

Brad Smith had a tough outing on the wing.

Robbie Kruse found out on the day of the game that he was to lead the Socceroos’ line, with Tomi Juric and Tim Cahill fit enough only for late cameos and Jamie Maclaren a bewildered spectator on the bench.

Kruse was a willing enough worker, but not once did the ball stick with him in and around the Japanese box. Coupled with the sluggish nature of Australia’s ball movement, their attacks were lapped up by the Japanese defence.

What changes for Tuesday against Thailand? Indications are Juric will be fit to start, and Aaron Mooy should have recovered from illness.

Still the Socceroos will have to play smart, move Thailand around, and be patient. Half of those 22 goals the Thais have conceded came in the last third of the game.

But if it’s all not enough, if Saudi take that other qualifying spot, then what? First comes the Asia play-off, against either Syria, Uzbekistan or South Korea.

Given that Syria are away to group winners Iran in their last game, they are the most vulnerable to missing out – so it comes down to Uzbekistan at home to a South Korean side that has lost three and drawn one of its four away games in this group so far.

That will be a stiff enough test, but beyond it lies the fourth-placed side in the Central and North American region (CONCACAF).

A variety of teams including Panama and the US could yet be that opponent; but frankly they are chickens to count another day. Awkward and substantial obstacles need to be navigated first.