Olyroos meet South Korea in Olympic qualification bid — but the permutations are endless

The number crunching is painful, and the football challenge is almost as taxing. The Olyroos’ hopes of reaching the final round of qualifying for Tokyo 2020 come down to 90 minutes against South Korea.

Australia's Ivan Vujica in action against Cambodia. Pic: AFP

The number crunching is painful, and the football challenge is almost as taxing. The stakes for the future of Australian football are huge.

The Olyroos’ hopes of reaching the final round of qualifying for Tokyo 2020 come down to 90 minutes against South Korea, plus potentially several further hours of monitoring other results around Asia.

Graham Arnold’s Olyroos need a result against South Korea. Pic: Getty Images

Graham Arnold’s side always suspected that this final clash of Group H with Korea would prove pivotal, and the winner really will take all.

Both sides currently have six points from two games, Korea top by virtue of a goal difference of plus 13 ahead of Australia’s +12, and the two sides are guaranteed to finish first and second in the group.

It means a win will catapult the Olyroos into the final stages of qualifying next year, and a draw would do likewise. Defeat by a single goal will still probably be enough, but a loss by two or more could — depending on results elsewhere — eliminate Australia from a third straight Olympic qualifying campaign.

The Olyroos need to win their group or be one of the four best runners up out of 11 groups in total, and defeating regional heavyweights Korea would clinch an unlikely first place in Group H for Graham Arnold’s side.

A draw would also guarantee qualification as one of the best four second-placed teams, a complicated process in itself in which the results for each second-placed team against the bottom side in their group are discarded.

Australia's Joseph Champness heads a goal against Cambodia in Phnom Penh last week. Pic: AFP

Even a narrow defeat wouldn’t necessarily prove terminal, unless the current top two sides in any four of groups A, B, C, D, E, I, J and K both earn a point, to mean at least four other second-placed teams finish on seven points.

But losing by two goals or more could allow other sides to sneak ahead of Australia — though that depends on which teams finish bottom in various groups, and hence have their results annulled.

The complication gets even greater thanks to staggered kick off times around Asia, with the earliest game finishing at 10pm AEDT and the last not until 6.25am AEDT tomorrow morning.