A-League semi-final: Melbourne Victory thrive on finals pressure

It’s a Big Blue, so of course it’s a big night. But Sydney FC know they are in for an almighty semi-final with Melbourne Victory on Sunday night.

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It’s a Big Blue, so of course it’s a big night.

But Sydney FC know they are in for an almighty semi-final with Melbourne Victory on Sunday night, for they are bidding to shoot down a side who have become the knockout kings of Australian football.

In the past decade, Victory have won a single Premier’s Plate, but reached four grand finals and won the FFA Cup. Over the A-League’s 14 seasons, no other side has played as many finals, nor won as many.

If anything, the trend under Kevin Muscat has become more pronounced - Muscat has overseen 11 finals and won eight. Under FIFA rules, games that go to penalties are counted as draws on a team’s record, meaning Muscat has lost just two finals.

In fact the last time his side lost a final (not counting on penalties) is slightly more than three years ago.

Former Sydney FC star Terry Antonis was both the villian and hero for Melbourne Victory in last season’s semi-final against Sydney FC. Picture: AAP

It’s a record of which Sydney are well aware, not least because in seven finals games under the Big Blue banner, the Sky Blues have never defeated Victory over 90 or even 120 minutes.

Part of Victory’s enviable record is their big players stepping up. His goal against Wellington last Friday meant Kosta Barbarouses has now scored in three consecutive finals matches and has five goals in his past seven finals. He makes things happen: he has either a goal or assist in those past seven finals.

But Muscat has become adept at changing his team for the occasion, as well as rousing them accordingly. Against Wellington, Victory dropped deeper than ever, conceding an incredible 63 per cent possession to negate the pace of the visiting forward line getting in behind.

Sydney FC’s Adrian Mierzejewski (left) and Brandon O'Neill after the semi-final loss. Picture: Getty Images

With Sydney’s relative lack of pace that blueprint is likely to change again for the match at Jubilee Oval on Sunday night, and the fact the Sky Blues have home advantage - thanks to finishing second - could be hugely important.

Excellent though Victory’s finals form is, it is dominated by home success. In fact they have never lost at home in 90 or 120 minutes during a final. The flip side to that is their away form.

Though Muscat’s side set a new record last season, coming from 4th to be premiers thanks to wins away to Sydney FC and Newcastle, before that they hadn’t won a final on the road.

Conversely, Sydney’s home form in finals is remarkably strong — undefeated in this city until that dramatic 3-2 reverse to Victory a year ago.

Melbourne Victory have an amazing record in finals football. Picture: Toby Zerna

The stats also tell Sydney something they need to improve on. The home side on Sunday have made more passes into the box per game than any other side this year (more than 33 each game), but Victory have a significantly higher shots conversion rate of 15 per cent, to 11 per cent.

And what happens if the game goes to form, and the teams need a shootout to separate them? Both sides have twice entered that lottery, each time against the other, and in both Sydney FC emerged the champions.

One way or another, history is ready to be made.