Key statistic gives Mitchell Starc edge on Josh Hazlewood in race for Ashes selection

Pat Cummins has delayed naming his first Test side until the toss, but conditions and a surprising set of figures suggest Mitchell Starc could be his man, reports BEN HORNE and DANIEL CHERNY.

A hidden statistic is giving Mitchell Starc a likely edge in the cutthroat playoff for a place in Australia’s attack for the first Ashes Test at Edgbaston.

Starc and Scott Boland are believed to have their noses in front of Josh Hazlewood in the crucial battle to line-up alongside fast bowling skipper Pat Cummins and stare down ‘Bazball.’

Australian coach Andrew McDonald said Cummins was set to announce his XI at a press conference on Thursday night (AEST) in the UK.

But when given the chance, Cummins said the team would be announced at the toss, even though he said the Aussies had settled on their side.

Cummins had earlier spoken to Australian media on Wednesday, but stopped short of guaranteeing Starc’s spot in the side with many fearing he’d be the victim of England’s Bazball batting onslaught.

“We’ll see,” said Cummins.

Having fully recovered from the side issue that kept him from the World Test Championship final, Hazlewood and fellow paceman Michael Neser both had an extended bowl in the Edgbaston nets on Wednesday afternoon, ensuring the selection panel of George Bailey, Tony Dodemaide and coach Andrew McDonald would need to make an agonising decision about which quick would be squeezed.

“Joshy Hazlewood obviously comes back into the fold, he looked like he got through that session fine, he should be on the selection table. It’s going to be tough, someone is going to miss out, I don’t think there’s any right or wrong way to go so we’ll see,” Cummins said.

Josh Hazlewood looks to be the odd man out. Picture: William West/AFP

Boland has barely put a foot wrong since his entry into Test cricket in late 2021 and was the pick of Australia’s pace battery in the WTC final win. Hazlewood has an excellent Test record in England (averaging 23.58 with the ball) but has played just four Tests since early 2021, while Starc – though always a threat – went at more than five runs per over against India and played just one Test on the 2019 Ashes tour.

Ex-greats including Allan Border and Mark Waugh have declared Boland “undroppable” after starring in the World Test Championship final against India, while there are several signs that point to Starc also being an indispensable force for the first Test against England.

Despite not having his greatest Test in the WTC final against India, Starc still took a wicket every 41 balls he bowled – a better strike rate than Cummins and Boland.

That reflects Starc’s overall Test record where he possesses one of the greatest strike rates (49.9) in the history of the game, ahead of a multitude of modern-day greats like Michael Holding (50.9), Mitchell Johnson (51.1), Glenn McGrath (51.9), Brett Lee (53.3) and Morne Morkel (53.3).

It says that even when Starc isn’t at his best, he still takes wickets at stunning regularity – reflected in his four-wicket performance at The Oval against India.

Helping Starc’s case to retain his spot is a dry Edgbaston wicket which Cummins predicted could encourage reverse swing.

While there is some dead brown grass on the pitch, the deck did not appear to be a typical green English seamer.

“It looks relatively dry, it spun here in 2019, a different time of year, but that looks dry, it’s good weather the next couple of days. Reverse might be a bit more of a factor than I thought it was going to be,” Cummins said.

“The square looks pretty good, in 2019 all the square was basically bare, it might be a factor, hopefully a bit of spin as well.”

Edgbaston conditions look to be well suited for Mitchell Starc. Picture: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

As well as being Australia’s strike fast bowler, Starc also doubles as Robin to Nathan Lyon’s Batman – helping cultivate the footmarks that can help the off-spinner dominate on tiring surfaces.

Without Starc, Australia’s lower order batting also looks a little thin – as it did in India when he wasn’t fit for the first couple of Tests.

Coach Andrew McDonald said he felt Australia had an advantage with lower order batting, at least until England called Moeen Ali into the side as its spinner.

“He does strengthen that lower order batting. I felt we might have had an edge (in lower batting before his call-up),” McDonald said on SEN.

There have been some fears raised that England’s Bazball bullies could target Starc.

However, that thinking goes against Starc’s track record as one of the best white ball bowlers of all time, where he is used to taking wickets with batsmen charging him and trying to hit him over the fence.

Stuart Broad meanwhile held his spot in the England XI from the side that beat Ireland at Lord’s earlier this month. With Jimmy Anderson and Ollie Robinson returning, it meant there was no spot for speedster Mark Wood.

Pat Cummins dropped short of naming Mitchell Starc in the XI for the first Ashes Test. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

Veteran Broad was controversially omitted from the series-opener against Australia at the Gabba in 2021-22 having dismissed Warner seven times during the 2019 series, a campaign in which Warner averaged 9.50.

Cummins said he therefore wasn’t shocked to see Broad included this time.

“No huge surprises, Mark Wood was the one you thought might have played, pretty experienced line up,” Cummins said.

“I didn’t know which way they were going to go, they left out Broad and Anderson at the Gabba a couple of years ago and that caused a bit of a hoo ha so I didn’t know which way they were going to go.

“I don’t think there’ll be any surprises, they’re guys we’ve played a lot and Davey’s I’m sure been thinking about Broad a lot over the last four years and if he got another chance how he is going to play against him.

“It didn’t go Davey’s way last time, but I think we’ll see a different Davey this time.”

ENGLAND XI: Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (capt), Jonny Bairstow (wk), Moeen Ali, Stuart Broad, Ollie Robinson, James Anderson

AUSTRALIA LIKELY XI: David Warner, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Cameron Green, Alex Carey, Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins (capt), Nathan Lyon, Scott Boland

Originally published as Key statistic gives Mitchell Starc edge on Josh Hazlewood in race for Ashes selection