Australia v India 2014: Ian Chappell says Aussies will win four-Test series but unsure of margin

THERE are far more unknowns in this Australia-India Test series than normal. The one thing we do know — Australia will win. But by what margin?

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 03: Steve Smith of Australia celebrates reaching his century during day one of the Fifth Ashes Test match between Australia and England at Sydney Cricket Ground on January 3, 2014 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

JUST a couple of weeks ago, the most likely result in the Test series was Australia being a comfortable 4-0 victors over India.

The tragic accident that took Phil Hughes’ life has changed that outlook and a lot of other things in the game.

There’s no doubt the Australians, especially, will find the series tough going, but top sportsmen are able to compartmentalise matters and, while they are on the field, focus firmly on the game.

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What happens to their thoughts when they’re not competing is a different matter.

It will be harder for bowlers than batsmen. No fast bowler wants to hit a batsman in the prevailing mood. They know they have to bowl bouncers, it’s an integral part of their armoury, but it will be a while before they deliver them with full intensity.

Eventually something will happen — it could be an altercation, it could be the need for a wicket or it could just be the competitive juices returning to full flow, but suddenly the fire in the belly will be rekindled.

Mitchell Johnson bowled short balls at Australian training on Friday. Picture: Matt Turner

This will have a greater effect on the Australians. They have the better equipped attack to deliver effective short-pitched bowling, whereas the Indian trundlers rely more on line and length, with a dash of cunning.

If the Australian attack lacks a penetrative edge for any length of time, India have the talented batsmen to pounce. However, they’ll need to quickly take advantage of the situation, because a couple of hooked or pulled boundaries will immediately arouse any fast bowler.

The key to the result — and it’s only a matter of the margin of Australia’s victory — will be how India’s batsmen tackle the pace and bounce of the pitches and how effective their attack is under these conditions.

India need to make a good start when they bat.

If that happens, then Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma, two excellent players of the horizontal bat shots, could be extremely dangerous.

On the bowling side, Ishant Sharma is the most experienced and he needs to be a potent spearhead. If he can inspire by taking wickets with the new ball, then it will improve the chances of India’s other bowlers. This is India’s best way to expose any Australian hesitancy against spinners when playing at home.

If David Warner, Chris Rogers and Shane Watson are allowed to flourish at the top of the order, India will be in for some long, leather-chasing days.

There’s no doubt Mitchell Johnson will once again be Australia’s battering ram, but I wouldn’t underestimate Ryan Harris’ role if he’s fully fit.

Virat Kohli could enjoy the expanses of the Adelaide Oval. Picture: Simon Cross

If Johnson is a little hesitant in his approach, it will affect his bowling as he relies heavily on pace and bounce to mount an ambush.

Harris is a different type of bowler. His sneaky pace, relentless probing and consistent movement make him a difficult proposition when he’s bowling a fuller length. These attributes will remain strong even if his heart is heavy.

Adelaide is a more benign pitch and Harris could well be the danger man early in the series. India were undone as much by movement, as by pace and bounce, in the latter stages of the series against England and this is where Harris shines.

Harris, with his recently repaired knee, will also be one of the Australian players most affected by the compacted schedule following Hughes’ tragic demise.

Ryan Harris could be a danger for the Indian batting line-up at the Adelaide Oval. Picture: Steve Pohlner

Australia also have injury concerns with Clarke, who will be desperate to play in order to honour his fallen comrade, but this may well impact his tender hamstring.

And all-rounders Watson and Mitchell Marsh are also injury prone, especially when bowling. If Australia strike a run of injury bad luck, it could quickly change the balance of the series.

The circumstances are also likely to produce more subtle side-effects on the series, which make the dynamics different. For instance, how will Hughes’ tragic death impact on the curators and, for that matter, the umpires and the crowd?

The curators are more likely to prepare a benign surface. A flatter surface will favour India.

How will the umpires react to short-pitched bowling? In theory it should be the same — the laws of the game haven’t changed. However, it’s only natural for umpires to be affected by the threat of injury.

And then there’s the crowd. How will they react to short-pitched bowling?

If they start booing at the first sign of intimidation it will have an effect on the fast bowlers.

There are far more unknowns in this series than normal, sadly because of a tragic accident.

The one thing we do know — Australia will win. But by what margin?