Cricket World Cup 2023: The big Pat Cummins problem selectors have created

Australia enters the Cricket World Cup with doubts over captain Pat Cummins and whether he warrants a spot in the Best XI. DANIEL CHERNY examines the tricky question for selectors.

Australia has named its World Cup squad, but the big question remains: is captain Pat Cummins in the Aussies’ best team for the event?

There were no great surprises when 18 players was whittled down to 15 on Wednesday, with Aaron Hardie, Tanveer Sangha and Nathan Ellis always shaping as the most likely to be omitted ahead of next month’s tournament.

And similarly it was no shock that selectors have given Cummins, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc and Glenn Maxwell every chance to get right from their respective injuries despite the chance that some of the quartet play next to no cricket before the tournament commences in early October.

Unlike Australia’s Ashes tour where the toughest selection calls were around the fringes of the squad, it is the makeup of the XI that is a much more complicated puzzle heading into the tournament, even if it can be assumed that four winged veterans will be right by the time of the Aussies’ first game against India on October 8 in Chennai.

Will Pat Cummins be in Australia’s best team at the ODI World Cup? Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images.

Since Australia’s one-day international rotation policy first came into vogue more than 20 years ago, it has been exceptionally rare that the Aussies have picked full-strength ODI teams outside ICC events. Almost invariably there are some being nursed, blooded or recuperating, meaning selectors are seldom forced to drop a top player on form alone.

However as Ben Stokes showed when he came out of ODI hibernation last month, the stars set themselves for the World Cup.

From an Australian perspective, Cummins is the embodiment of this phenomenon. Since the start of 2021, he has played just six ODIs, understandably prioritising Test cricket and missing one-dayers for various reasons including the death of his mother earlier this year. He is unlikely to feature in any of the five matches in South Africa either, meaning the skipper would need to be shoehorned into the side only a couple of weeks from the start of the tournament.

Pat Cummins (C) celebrates with teammates after taking a wicket against Sri Lanka. Picture: Ishara Kodikara.

Granted there are worse afflictions than being wedded to one of Australia’s all-time great pacemen, but when it comes to team balance there is a conversation to be had about Cummins’ spot.

If this World Cup was being played at the WACA and it was 1988 then it’d be a no-brainer to pick Cummins, Starc, Josh Hazlewood and possibly one or two other quicks.

But it’s not. This tournament is happening in India, on pitches that could get slow and tired towards the end of the event.

Looking at the 15, Sean Abbott and Josh Inglis appear the clearest depth players, leaving 13 to squeeze into an XI.

Australia has picked a squad stacked with all-rounders that could quite easily allow them to pick a team with just three frontline bowlers.

Adam Zampa is an automatic selection as the side’s premier white-ball spinner for much of the last two World Cup cycles, while Alex Carey is the No. 1 gloveman and middle order stabiliser with strong cover in the form Inglis.

Australia's Travis Head (L) and David Warner are poised to open the batting. Picture: William WEST / AFP.

Smith is a lock too in the top order anchor role, while Mitchell Marsh is surely guaranteed a start given his imperious touch in recent months. Though Marsh succeeded in a brief stint at the top of the order, he seems resigned to batting lower to allow Travis Head and David Warner to bat at the top, despite recent speculation that Warner could be the one to be pushed down the order.

If healthy, Maxwell is a must-pick given his rare skill set and liking for Asian conditions.

Again with the proviso his body is OK, Starc has to be selected given his incomparable World Cup record and point of difference as a left-arm strike weapon.

Realistically that leaves three spots for five players: Cummins, Hazlewood, Ashton Agar, Marcus Stoinis and Cameron Green. It is here that horses for courses becomes more of a consideration, because selectors will be much more tempted to pick Agar on a turning deck.

That emerging leg-spinner Tanveer Sangha was left out points to Australia’s default position being to pick only one tweaker and that Agar is there only as backup to Zampa and or when conditions suit.

Though Stoinis has been a consistent force in Twenty20 cricket, his ODI numbers are unflattering and largely inferior to those of Green in recent times. One school of thought is that they are direct competitors for a spot.

Still there could be room in the side for both, as well as Marsh. That would only work though if Agar and one of the big three quicks missed. It’s understood selectors like the idea of stacking the side with all-rounders and getting 20 overs out of a mixture of all-rounders and part-timers Stoinis, Green, Marsh, Maxwell and Head to lengthen the batting order.

Having been left out of the 2019 World Cup squad (and then even when a replacement player was needed), Hazlewood has been Australia’s standout ODI quick ever since, averaging 26.52 at an economy rate of 4.30 with the ball and soaring to No. 1 in the ICC bowling rankings.

On pure bowling numbers he deserves to be in ahead of Cummins.

Some rotation during the tournament - being played in a league format - is likely, but if push comes to shove, will they be prepared to leave the captain out for a semi-final on team balance?

Originally published as Cricket World Cup 2023: The big Pat Cummins problem selectors have created