Cricket T20 World Cup: Mark Waugh splits contenders from pretenders
The T20 World Cup gets underway on the 17th of October. Mark Waugh runs his eye over the contenders and the pretenders.
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Australia may not be favoured by many to win the T20 World Cup, but Mark Waugh can see a way for the Aussies to shock the more fancied power players like India, England and the West Indies. Read Junior’s predictions for the Cup below.
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AUSTRALIA
I’ve got Mitch Marsh and Glenn Maxwell marked down as my two key players for the tournament for Australia and that’s often all it needs for a team to win a tournament. One or two players to play out of their skin and that can get you through to winning a World Cup because it’s such a short format. One performance can win you the game.
PREDICTION: Will make the semi-finals, from there anything can happen.
AFGHANISTAN
I give them a chance of upsetting a lot of the teams. Obviously their spin department is really strong with Rashid Khan and Mujeeb ur Rahman. They normally bowl eight overs for not many, so those two spin bowlers are going to keep them in a lot of games. They lack a little bit of depth in their batting I’d say even though Mohammad Nabi as captain is a good ball striker.
PREDICTION: Potential Giant Killers in group stage
BANGLADESH
Mustafizur Rahman is a very skilled left-arm quick who has excelled in the IPL with his slower balls. There’s a couple of world class players there but personally I haven’t got them in the top five. They’ve won all those games against Australia and New Zealand recently in Bangladesh on pretty iffy wickets by all reports. I don’t see them as a danger.
PREDICTION: Making up the numbers
ENGLAND
They’re a threat for sure. They have such a powerful batting order, with so many good stroke players, who hit a lot of boundaries. They are a very dangerous team. They’ve got quite a few guys playing in the IPL, although Eoin Morgan seems to have lost a bit of form. Obviously they’ll miss Jofra Archer and Ben Stokes, they’re two big losses, but I think they’ve got some decent quicks and a lot of experience there in T20 cricket.
PREDICTION: Will make semis and a chance for the 50-over/T20 World Cup double.
INDIA
I’ve got them as the team to beat. They’re going to be match fit and they’re going to have a lot of games under their belt from the IPL being played. They have enormous strength with their batting, obviously with Rohit Sharma at the top and Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant, Hardik Pandya and KL Rahul. We saw what Pandya can do when he was out here last season, but he’s just one of so many match winners with the bat. Their spin options are good too with Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel, Ravichandran Ashwin and Rahul Chahar the leggie and their quicks, headed by Jasprit Bumrah.
PREDICTION: Favourites to win it with conditions to suit them and with their players all match hardened.
NEW ZEALAND
They’re always competitive, New Zealand. They field well, they’ve got some class players like Kane Williamson who is a tremendous player under pressure. I like Devon Conway as a player and they’ve got a bit of power with Glenn Phillips and Martin Guptill, who is not quite the player he was but is still dangerous. Then they have so much experience with the ball in Tim Southee and Trent Boult, Mitch Santner and Ish Sodhi. Without being a stand out squad they’re very solid and they’ll give you a good run for your money.
PREDICTION: Knocking on the door of semi-finals as usual
PAKISTAN
I don’t really like Pakistan for this tournament, I haven’t got them in the top five. They are ranked No. 3 in the world and their strength is obviously in batting star Babar Azam. But I don’t really have them as semi-final contenders. I don’t think they’ve really got huge firepower with the bat, that I can see anyway.
PREDICTION: Will struggle
SOUTH AFRICA
Same with Pakistan, I don’t have them as semi-finalists, but having said that players like Quinton de Kock and David Miller are extremely capable matchwinners. Overall though, I think South Africa’s batting looks a little bit weak to me. Obviously Kagiso Rabada is a key bowler, and Anrich Nortje is playing in the IPL, so there is some firepower there with their quicks.
PREDICTION: Don’t have the squad depth to threaten
WEST INDIES
They’re always a danger the West Indies, and are defending champions in this format. They’re an ageing squad you’d have to say, but they’ve got a lot of experience, and as always some of the world’s best power hitters. Evin Lewis is a really good player I think and Kieron Pollard is one of the most sought after T20 players for a reason. Chris Gayle is not the player he was but still capable. Guys like Nicholas Pooran and Andre Russell play well on these sort of slow, low pitches, and they have good change up with their bowlers.
PREDICTION: Big chance to go back to back
WAUGH’S BIG FEAR ABOUT WORLD CUP HOPES
Australia has a dismal record in Twenty20 cricket, but former national selector, international superstar and Fox Cricket expert Mark Waugh believes Aaron Finch’s men are one of five hopes to win the World Cup in the UAE starting on October 23.
Here is Junior’s breakdown of the tournament:
Why has Australia never won the T20 World Cup and why are we ranked behind Bangladesh at 7th in the world?
Those rankings aren’t worth the paper they’re written on to be honest, so I wouldn’t even worry about that. It’s just been a combination of the timing of the matches we’ve played. We haven’t had our full team in. That obviously has a pretty big bearing on the results if you’re not playing your best team. In T20 cricket, the difference between winning and losing can be very marginal a lot of the time, so we probably haven’t won the big moments in a lot of those matches when we’ve had the chances.
Is Australia’s squad good enough to breakthrough and win the tournament?
I think it’s pretty good. The only thing that worries me is a lot of the players are lacking match practice. There’s a few players coming off injuries like Finch and Marcus Stoinis so there’s a question mark over those guys and how fit they’re going to be for the tournament. But I think overall it’s a good side. Our bowling looks really strong. We’ve got a good pace attack and our spin options are pretty sound as well. I think overall it’s a team that can win the tournament there’s no doubt about that. They’ll be desperate. Obviously the preparation hasn’t been ideal. But we’ve got the players to certainly give it a shake.
Where will it be won and lost?
The big concern for me is our top three to be honest. David Warner, Finch and maybe Steve Smith. I know they’re excellent players and have great records but I haven’t seen much from them recently to suggest they’re at the peak of their powers. To me there’s a question mark on the top order. With Finch we’ll see how he comes back from injury and Warner has been dropped by his IPL franchise which isn’t ideal because he’s lacking match practice and form. I think Mitch Marsh has got to play and he could easily bat at No.3. Marsh and Glenn Maxwell are our two form players at the moment and they’re going to be so important to how we do in the tournament.
Does Steve Smith make the starting top six?
I don’t know if he’s an automatic starter but I think he’ll definitely play a role with his experience. He could play an important role. If you’re chasing a small total and you need just a steadying influence to chase down that total, then he’ll guide you home. But if you’re batting first or you need quick runs looking to post a big total, then he might just float around the order.
Do selectors go with the experience of Matthew Wade or the promise of Josh Inglis as wicketkeeper?
It’s a toss-up. I think you could go either way and you wouldn’t weaken the team. It’s going to depend a bit maybe on the two practice games and form leading into the first game. I know Josh Inglis has played really well in England during the winter, so I think he’s a genuine chance of playing. I think Wade will probably have first crack and could even open the batting at some stage if the top order starts to fail. If he opens the batting, you could even play them both. Inglis is a good selection and it wouldn’t surprise me if he plays an important role in the tournament.
Is there any chance Mitchell Swepson could be picked in the same XI as fellow spinners Adam Zampa and Ashton Agar?
You’ve got Maxwell who can bowl four overs of spin as well so I’d be surprised if we played three (specialists) in any games. It depends on the pitches obviously, but I doubt it because Maxwell is pretty handy with the ball.
Should Australia be prioritising picking more specialist bowlers or picking a longer batting line-up with all-rounders who can bowl the overs?
Look, there’s some games where bowlers are going to win you games and there are other games where just a bloke with a bat is going to win you a game. I don’t think there’s any set formula to be honest, I just think it depends on the opposition you’re playing and the conditions that are in front of you. I think you can mix and match. You can sometimes have a longer batting order or a shorter batting order that means you have more bowlers. There’s a balancing act there, but I think we’re lucky because if Marcus Stoinis can bowl, he’s useful. Mitchell Marsh is useful as a bowler as well and Maxwell. So you’ve really got three all-rounders there who can do a good job with the bat and the ball so that adds a lot of depth to your batting and your bowling.
Who are the players to win Australia the tournament?
We say it all the time that Maxwell is the key player but I really think he is in this team at the moment. He’s your matchwinner, along with Mitch Marsh. I think Mitch has gone to a new level, his performances in Bangladesh and the West Indies were excellent. He stood out head and shoulders above anyone else on that tour. He’s always promised to be a real match winner at Australian international level.
T20 World Cup: The Aussie stars on chopping block
Can you pick the team that’s one below Bangladesh in the world Twenty20 rankings?
Try Australia.
It’s true, way down at No. 7 is the heavyweight that has not only never won a T20 World Cup, but is still yet to master the format.
Compounding the odds stacked against Aaron Finch’s team is the fact there are only a couple of players in the squad for this month’s blockbuster tournament in the UAE who you could say are in any kind of form.
Injury, Covid and IPL selection has conspired against Australia at the wrong time … but individually Finch’s men still match up on paper against any team.
The secret for coach Justin Langer is to pick the right XI. It’s no easy task, and here is a list of the biggest questions selectors must answer ahead of Australia’s opening match against South Africa on October 23.
FORM v DAVID WARNER AND AARON FINCH
Australia’s World Cup hopes hinge largely on their two war horses at the top of the order rediscovering their magic. Warner has been in the uncharted waters of being sidelined from his IPL franchise and has barely had a hit since April, while Finch is still working his way back from knee surgery and hasn’t played since July. They say form is temporary and class is permanent and there is no doubt about Warner and Finch as one of the all-time great opening partnerships in white ball cricket. They have always batted well together and are steely characters with a proven history of counterpunching when critics are writing them off. Australia’s campaign relies on them finding form.
Warner:
Average 31.45, Strike Rate 140, Last five matches 2, 0, 57, 6, 37 (IPL)
Finch:
Average 37.46, Strike Rate 150, Last five matches 34, 53, 30, 6, 4 (T20I)
PRESSURE v GLENN MAXWELL AND MITCHELL MARSH
With a squad so worryingly short of a gallop heading into a major tournament, it’s Maxwell and Marsh who stand out as beacons of form and hope. Maxwell has been absolutely blitzing it in the current IPL being played in the same conditions as the World Cup will be held in a few weeks’ time and appears to be in the form of his career. Australia needs to try and harness the momentum Maxwell has created and hand him the keys to quarterbacking the middle-order batting. Marsh on the other hand was the one success story of Australia’s miserable tours of the West Indies and Bangladesh; announcing himself as the answer to the side’s dramas at No.3. But the test for Maxwell and Marsh is that in the past they’ve either struggled to live up to the hype or have been unfairly maligned as scapegoats for Australia’s failures. Now they need to feel the support of their teammates and believe they are the power men to break Australia’s duck at Twenty20 World Cups.
Maxwell:
Average 31.78, Strike Rate 159, Last five matches 40, 57, 50*, 56, 11
Marsh:
Average 28, Strike Rate 128, Last five matches 4, 11, 51, 45, 45 (T20I)
STEVE SMITH v MARCUS STOINIS
Like David Warner, batting GOAT Smith is in the unfamiliar position of being forced to watch from the sidelines, unable to make Ricky Ponting’s best XI at the Delhi Capitals in the IPL. Sharing the bench with him has been the injured Stoinis, who hurt his hamstring in the first game. Depending on what kind of team balance coach Justin Langer is looking for this World Cup, it’s possible Ponting’s two pupils Smith and Stoinis could be headed for a middle-order shootout. Conditions will be crucial and if pitches continue to prove slow and worn, Smith comes into his own as Australia’s best player of spin. There is still room in T20 cricket for a worker of the ball like Smith even if he can’t match the world class batting power of Stoinis. The Melbourne Stars big man has another own point of difference as a genuine all-rounder, and of course it’s possible he and Smith could both feature in the same team. However, if the wickets in the UAE are dead after the IPL, then Stoinis’ effectiveness with the ball may be limited – not to mention the unanswered questions over his fitness.
Smith:
Average 27.37, Strike Rate 130, Last five matches 9, 39, 24, DNB, 4 (IPL)
Stoinis:
Average 25.06, Strike Rate 134, Last five matches DNB and 0-8, DNB and 0-6, 6* and 1-7, 22 and 0-23, 2* and 0-12
JOSH INGLIS v MATTHEW WADE
There is a growing feeling Yorkshire born Inglis is a huge chance to be thrown into the deep end by making a stunning international debut as Australia’s World Cup wicketkeeper ahead of Wade. Selectors will agonise over whether it’s too much pressure to put on a rookie, and Australia certainly knows what it will get from Wade. But in Inglis’ favour is his proven ability in the Big Bash to excel as a middle-order batsman. There is no secret Wade is best served at the top of the order and if there is a lesson Australia has been taught over and over again in T20 cricket it’s that trying to squeeze all your best batsman into an order wherever they fit doesn’t necessarily work. In years of trying, Australia has not been able to find a specialist late innings batsman – and Inglis shapes as a potential balancer. Wade would be hard done by if that’s the way selectors go, but he could still play a crucial role later in the tournament at the top of the order.
Inglis:
Average 32.9, Strike Rate 152 (Domestic), last five matches 72, 2, 19, 2, 55 (The Hundred)
Wade:
Average 19.26, Strike Rate 124, last five matches 22, 2, 1, 4, 13 (T20I)
SLOW WICKETS v MITCHELL STARC and PAT CUMMINS
Few batsmen have the answers facing Australia’s dynamic duo in T20 cricket, but they could have a nemesis in the UAE this World Cup: the pitches. If the IPL is anything to go by, the work could be tough for the spearhead quicks where ball coming onto bat could be just what opposition batters are looking for to post big totals. Starc and Cummins will need to get creative and execute well to get wickets – but if there’s anyone who can make the ball sing on a lifeless pitch it’s Australia’s matchwinning left and right arm combo. In usual circumstances both are IPL stars, but due to family reasons both opted out of the current tournament and so have missed that lead in on the same wickets where the trophy will be decided.
Starc:
Average 21.82, Strike Rate 18.10, Economy 7.22, last five matches 1-28, 2-33, 0-37, 1-15, 0-49 (T20I)
Cummins:
Average 20.62, Strike rate 17.80, Economy 6.93, last five matches 3-24, 2-31, 0-36, 0-58, 1-34 (IPL)
BIG BATS V ADAM ZAMPA AND ASHTON AGAR
Australia’s ongoing battle to find its identity in Twenty20 cricket has resulted in a lot of chopping and changing over the years. But one thing selectors have done is made an investment in spin twins Zampa and Agar. Both have played a lot of matches for their country and will need to draw on all that experience at a tournament where they must perform for Australia to stand a chance of walking away champions. There is never anywhere to hide as a spinner in T20 cricket when the bats are big and the boundaries are short. Zampa needs to find a way to make his leggies zing even without pace in the wicket, and Agar will need pinpoint accuracy to earn catches in the deep. It’s no easy task when the batting giants of India, England and the West Indies have had the chance to get their eyes in during the IPL.
Zampa:
Average 23.42, Strike Rate 20.10, Economy 6.96, last five matches 1-24, 2-24, 1-24, 1-28, 2-30 (T20I)
Agar:
Average 21.69, Strike Rate 19.20, Economy 6.74, last five matches 1-28, 1-22, 0-23, 1-17, 0-22 (T20I)
JOSH HAZLEWOOD v MITCHELL SWEPSON
Rarely in any format of the game has Australia been bold enough to pick three specialist spinners for a Test, but that bravery just might be required in these conditions. Talented legspinner Mitchell Swepson has played just 7 T20 matches but is in the UAE as a key man. Coach Justin Langer has consistently shown a preference for picking five specialist bowlers rather than relying on all-rounders to make-up the bulk of the overs, and if that model is followed then the final place in the attack might just be a horses for courses choice between Swepson and the ever-reliable Hazlewood. Along with Maxwell, Hazlewood is the only other Australian playing regular cricket in the IPL right now so brings with him a form factor that can’t be ignored. Hazlewood is a big match star and Australia’s decision to leave him out of the 50-over World Cup in 2019 was a poor error.
Hazlewood:
Average 25.33, Strike Rate 19, Economy 7.98, last five matches 0-22, 1-27, 0-54, 3-24, 2-40 (IPL)
Swepson:
Average 15.72, Strike Rate 12.50, Economy 7.52, last five matches 0-14, 3-12, 1-41 (T20I), 1-26, 2-28 (BBL)
BIG NAMES v KANE RICHARDSON
Among a line-up of out and out fast bowling superstars, it might be easy to ask, Kane who? But on dusty decks where express pace isn’t going to necessarily be king, the claims of T20 specialist Richardson cannot be ignored. Richardson might not be a household name, but his talents certainly aren’t underappreciated by coach Langer. However, to get Richardson into the attack might require axing an icon like Hazlewood, Starc or Cummins – hence why selectors are under as much pressure as players this World Cup. Capable of changing his pace and dragging the ball along the wicket, Richardson can be difficult to hit on slow and worn pitches. With 26 T20 internationals to his name, Richardson is an experienced and world class campaigner who must be considered.
Richardson:
Average 24.31, Strike Rate 18.40, Economy 7.92, last five matches 1-29 (IPL), 0-16, 3-19, 1-17, 3-43 (T20I)
RESERVES: DAN CHRISTIAN, NATHAN ELLIS, DANIEL SAMS
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