BBL table, ladder predictor: What every team needs to make finals in BBL13
Melbourne Stars are locked in a tense battle for a BBL13 finals berth as three teams stamp themselves as the leading title contenders. Who will make the final four?
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Did 39 balls determine the make-up of BBL13 finals?
That was how long it took Melbourne Stars to chase a rain-reduced target against Hobart Hurricanes as Glenn Maxwell clubbed 35 from 18 balls.
That result launched Melbourne Stars into the final mix and has been the catalyst for a top-four push which seemed a pipedream in early December.
While Brisbane Heat are locked in to the top four and Perth Scorchers are likely to join them, the remaining two spots will come down to Sydney Sixers, Melbourne Stars, Adelaide Strikers and Hobart Hurricanes.
Find out where every club sits below.
BRISBANE HEAT
LADDER POSITION: 1st (6 wins, 0 losses, 2 no result, 14 points)
REMAINING FIXTURES: Scorchers (home), Scorchers (away)
KEY MATCHES: The Heat are set to host at least one final and will finish top of the table unless Perth wins its last three matches.
KEY BATTER: Colin Munro — has played for the Scorchers before and his experience will be pivotal during two crunch fixtures to end the regular season.
KEY BOWLER: Spencer Johnson — Picked up a whopping pay packet of $1.78m in the IPL draft and might have a BBL title to his name soon too. Slow start to the tournament after injuries but is starting to hit his stride.
AVAILABILITY: Munro and Sam Billings are contracted in the IPLT20 and their availability was originally listed as 6-9 games. Tall Paul Walter is available for the full tournament and finals. Usman Khawaja and Marnus Labuschagne are unlikely to feature in the last game or finals due to the Test series against the West Indies.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Host two finals on the Gold Coast (Gabba unavailable due to Test) and win a title in front of their home fans. Avoiding a trip west during finals would be a bonus.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Won’t finish any lower than second.
WE SAY: The Heat have been on a roll since midway through BBL12 and have Jimmy Peirson and Max Bryant in reserve for when Billings and Munro depart. Shaping as the biggest threat to a Scorchers threepeat.
PERTH SCORCHERS
LADDER POSITION: 2nd (5 wins, 1 loss, 1 no result, 11 points)
REMAINING FIXTURES: Heat (away), Heat (home), Sixers (home)
KEY MATCHES: Tough finish with three games on the road and then two home fixtures against the biggest threats to their hopes of a third successive title.
KEY BATTER: Aaron Hardie — Leading run scorer from BBL12 and treats Optus Stadium like his playground. You’d be tempted to take a hard-hat to sit in the crowd the way he thumps the ball over the boundary rope. Has stepped up as captain after Ashton Turner’s knee injury.
KEY BOWLER: Ashton Agar — No one doubts how important the quicks are and the trio of Richardson, Tye and Behrenforff so rarely let the Scorchers down. If Perth gets wickets out of Agar, it will be difficult to deny a threepeat. Just look at the damage he did on a spin-friendly wicket in Sydney’s west.
AVAILABILITY: Zak Crawley jets off with a game or two left in the regular season for a Test tour of India. He’ll be replaced at the top of the order by Steve Eskinazi. Laurie Evans listed his availability as the full tournament pre-draft but has a ILT20 deal. Lance Morris remains an outside chance for a Test debut against the West Indies and has been named in the ODI squad.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Finals at the furnace in front of 40,000+ rabid West Australians.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Perth appears to have done enough to secure a finals berth. Even two big Strikers wins are unlikely to be enough to close a huge net run rate gap.
WE SAY: Ashton Turner’s knee injury would have rocked any other team but the Scorchers have moved on like they didn’t lose their captain and arguably the BBL’s best middle-order player. They’ll play finals and their big-stage experience will again take them a long way.
SYDNEY SIXERS
LADDER POSITION: 3rd (4 wins, 2 losses, 2 no results, 10 points)
REMAINING FIXTURES: Thunder (home), Scorchers (away)
KEY MATCHES: The last match against Perth Scorchers could determine who gets a double chance.
KEY BATTER: Jordan Silk – One of their mainstays, Silk has been very important in the middle order as well as continuing to uphold his reputation as one of the league’s top fielders.
KEY BOWLER: Stephen O’Keefe — Wily veteran who is bowling like he could feature in the BBL well into his 40s. His ability to tie up an end creates huge pressure for the quicks to capitalise on.
AVAILABILITY: The Sixers will have Steve Smith available for a one-off cameo in the Sydney smash. It’ll be all local hands on deck come the finals though given James Vince and Tom Curran are due to depart for the ILT20 series. Hayden Kerr would be a logical inclusion for Curran.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Beating Brisbane and Perth would mean the Sixers are in the box seat for a double chance and home final first up.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Win the last two and have Brisbane defeat Perth twice so the Sixers can slide into second.
WE SAY: A home knockout final against the Stars or Strikers looms large.
MELBOURNE STARS
LADDER POSITION: 4th (4 wins, 4 losses, 8 points)
REMAINING FIXTURES: Renegades (away), Hurricanes (home)
KEY MATCHES: The Stars need to win their last two games to guarantee a finals berth with Adelaide closing fast. A loss against Hobart in the final match could be catastrophic.
KEY BATTER: Hilton Cartwright — The former Test batter is having an excellent campaign in the middle order where he is remarkably outshining Glenn Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis.
KEY BOWLER: Glenn Maxwell — Just as he did during the World Cup, Maxwell is having a sizeable impact with the ball, striking regularly if expensively.
AVAILABILITY: Scott Boland is back in the Aussie squad for the West Indies Test series. Expect Mark Steketee to be recalled for the second time in BBL13. The Stars have already lost Haris Rauf and Usama Mir to Pakistan duties. Imad Wasim will miss the finals for ILT20.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: A knockout final as Scorchers and Sixers meet in the last round.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Lose the last two and open the door for the Strikers or Hurricanes to pounce.
WE SAY: The bowling will be an achilles heel but with Marcus Stoinis back in form with the bat and Glenn Maxwell the ultimate matchwinner, who knows what the limit is for the Stars. Can they finally shake their finals hoodoo?
ADELAIDE STRIKERS
LADDER POSITION: 5th (3 wins, 3 losses, 1 no result, 7 points)
REMAINING FIXTURES: Hurricanes (away), Thunder (away)
KEY MATCHES: Have to win both games to be a realistic chance of playing finals. The Strikers can afford to lose to Sydney Thunder if the Stars drop both of their remaining games and they defeat Hobart.
KEY BATTER: Matt Short – The new skipper has over almost 400 runs and arguably the most menacing pull shot in the BBL. Boggles the mind why bowlers keep trying to test him with short stuff in Adelaide. The result is almost always crowd-catch attempts.
KEY BOWLER: Cameron Boyce – Conceding less than seven runs an over, the veteran tweaker has done a brilliant job deputising for the injured Rashid Khan.
AVAILABILITY: Alex Carey has played his only game of BBL13 and returned to the Test squad. Left-arm paceman David Payne is available for the full tournament, while Jamie Overton and Adam Hose contracted to the ILT20 which starts on January 19. They could yet stay for BBL finals, which start on December 19, should the Strikers qualify.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Tip the Stars out of finals and travel to Sydney to tackle the Sixers.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Lose the last two and finish sixth.
WE SAY: Momentum is with the Strikers and their best players are standing tall with the heat on. If Short and Jamie Overton continue to sparkle, the other title contenders will be praying the Strikers miss out. Brisbane Heat showed last year how dangerous a team with momentum can be come finals.
HOBART HURRICANES
LADDER POSITION: 6th (3 wins, 5 losses, 6 points)
REMAINING FIXTURES: Strikers (home), Stars (away)
KEY MATCHES: Both are must wins to be any hope of hauling in the top-four. The beauty for Hobart is it faces its two biggest rivals for fourth. Two wins and the Canes might just sneak in.
KEY BATTER: Tim David — The master blaster just hasn’t got going with 74 runs at an average of 14.8. David has been listed as high as No. 4 but does his best work at No. 6 as a finisher. Hopefully for the Hurricanes’ sake, he can explode in the last two games.
KEY BOWLER: Paddy Dooley — The Hurricanes are a better side when the left-arm mystery spinner is taking wickets.
AVAILABILITY: Chris Jordan and Sam Hain have deals with the ILT20, although Hain was dropped earlier in the tournament and is struggling for runs. Jordan has been Hobart’s best player in the last two matches and will leave a big hole when he departs.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: A knockout final.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Could finish in the bottom two.
WE SAY: Riley Meredith’s injury has come at a bad time for Hobart. Chris Jordan can’t continue to carry the bowling — and at times the batting. The Hurricanes have one of the BBL’s most talented squads but just haven’t put it together this season, which is an all too familiar tale.
SYDNEY THUNDER
LADDER POSITION: 7th (1 win, 5 losses, 1 no result, 3 points)
REMAINING FIXTURES: Sixers (away), Strikers (home), Renegades (home)
KEY MATCHES: After a very disappointing campaign to date, they are all important for the Thunder. But unless a Steven Bradbury-scenario unfolds, their finals chances are over.
KEY BATTER: David Warner — Back in green after his Test retirement, but likely only for three games due to the Thunder’s struggles this summer.
KEY BOWLER: Daniel Sams — Only Xavier Bartlett has more wickets than Sams, but he has lacked consistency and conceded 9.45 runs an over.
AVAILABILITY: David Warner is back after playing his last Test in Sydney. Alex Hales will head off for the UAE come finals time, while Sam Konstas is due to depart for Australia’s under-19 World Cup tilt. Cameron Bancroft missed out on Test selection.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Finish with three wins, but still just miss finals.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Wooden spoon.
WE SAY: The Thunder had all the ingredents to be a contender but have been poor too often. They were lucky to escape with a point in the washed out Sydney Smash against the Sixers.
MELBOURNE RENEGADES
LADDER POSITION: 8th (1 win, 6 losses, 1 no result, 3 points)
REMAINING FIXTURES: Stars (home), Thunder (away)
KEY MATCHES: No one likes to lose a derby. It will double in importance as the last match for franchise legend Aaron Finch at home before his retirement.
KEY BATTER: Jake Fraser-McGurk — The wunderkind has continued his rise with his best and most reliable BBL season to date. Capable of the outrageous, his future looks incredibly bright.
KEY BOWLER: Adam Zampa — has a point to prove after a below-par campaign and would love a big game against his former side. Zampa has five wickets at 44.6.
AVAILABILITY: Mujeeb Ur Rahman’s involvement was cut short amid a dispute with the Afghanistan board. Nathan Lyon has also been ruled out. Quinton de Kock has headed to South Africa and Joe Clarke is out injured.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Win the last two and finish sixth.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: A fourth wooden spoon in five years would be disastrous.
WE SAY: After playing finals last year, plenty was expected of the Renegades this season following the arrival of de Kock and Zampa. Destined for a bottom-two finish and another off-season of inquisition.
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Originally published as BBL table, ladder predictor: What every team needs to make finals in BBL13
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