Ashes can be ours for the taking

WHAT better place to stage a daylight robbery than the spiritual home of Robin Hood?

James Pattinson

WHAT better place to stage a daylight robbery than the spiritual home of Robin Hood?

If Australia defy most people's expectations to snatch this week's first Test off England in Nottingham, it would have that Sherwood Forest-style "take from the rich, give to the poor" flavour to it ... the unrated colonial outcasts storming from the wilderness to rough up their regal English rivals.

With 10 Ashes Tests coming our way in home-and-away series over the next seven months, it's time to stick our necks out and put some predictions on the table.

My theory is that this time next year Australia will hold the Ashes, after beating England in Australia despite losing to them narrowly in England in the first series, which starts on Wednesday.

YOU BE THE SELECTOR: PICK YOUR OWN ASHES TEAM

The logic is that Australia have about twice as many genuine Test fast bowlers as England, and by the late Tests of the second series the Poms will be down to weak stocks where Australia might have, say, a Mitchell Johnson-Pat Cummins-Nathan Coulter-Nile - or all of the above - up its sleeve.

But first to England. No one is suggesting matching England in England will be easy.

Our crystal ball sees times in this series where Australia is bowled out for 180-ish and all seems lost. Then the bowlers rev up and skittle England for 240. It promises to be a wild ride, but for Australian fans with low expectations, here are 10 reasons not to give up hope:

Bowling grunt

Australia have had better attacks but never more fast bowling depth, as evidenced in the fact that Johnson, a 200-Test-wicket bowler, did not even make the tour and is ranked no higher than sixth or seventh in the pecking order. It's true Australia lack a champion spearhead such as Glenn McGrath or Dennis Lillee, but James Pattinson could become that man, and Ryan Harris at his best is outstanding.

England good not great

There is no doubt England are a better side on paper and a tighter team unit than Australia. But please don't put them on a pedestal. This is not the 1980s and they are not the West Indies.

If you chose a combined side out of this England team and, say, Steve Waugh's rampaging Australian unit of the early 2000s, you might at best find a place for four Englishmen: Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen and Jimmy Anderson.

Twice this century, Australia have put together 16 Test winning streaks. The current England team have won just four of their past 13 Tests.

None of their bowlers average beneath 28 per Test wicket.

The spin thing

Much has been written about spinner Graeme Swann's potency against left-handers, but against Australia Swann has been more sandpaper than chainsaw. In 10 Ashes Tests, he averages an unspectacular 40 runs each for his 29 wickets.

It's not India

Even if Australia played to 50 per cent of their ability there should be no repetition of their 4-0 thumping in India, where they floundered around in conditions tailor-made for spin. They will be far more at home in England.

The extra bowler

It's a small mercy, but it may yet prove decisive ... Australia have a fifth bowling option, England essentially do not. In a tightly compressed five Test series, Shane Watson's economical medium pace, which has netted him 62 wickets at 30, will be a useful asset.

The Kiwi curse

New Zealand recently drew and almost won a three-Test series with England in New Zealand.

The series has been written off as a slow-fused slugfest on wickets with less life than Mars.

But if Australia are looking for inspiration they should note that unsung seamers Trent Boult and Neil Wagner at times trouble England and - are you sitting down? - four members of New Zealand's notoriously fragile top order averaged more than 49.

If the Kiwis can do it ...

Bash it like 'Boof'

Being the spurned underdog gives any sporting team a sense of liberation. Australia are $3.80 pops in the first Test with England at $1.95 which will give new coach Darren Lehmann the perfect platform to launch his "have a go and don't sweat it" mantra. We may find batsmen such as Phil Hughes throw away the sheet music and simply play.

Know your enemy

The Australians are well aware of the nuances of almost all of their rivals and, just to cap off their research, new opener Chris Rogers has been playing England county cricket for many years and has a great eye for technical analysis.

The big bus theory

Ashes tours tend to act as an agent for team unity because the team travels on a tour bus that forces players to spend a lot of time together. England are not that good. Australia are not that bad.

The fighting tail

Australia's tailenders average 89 runs to England's 69, a heartening stat when the men above them are known to vanish without trace.