NBL rankings: Which clubs are hot — and not — after Round 5 of the 2023-24 season
Reigning champs Sydney Kings have had a slow start in the ‘Hoops Capital’ as the two Melbourne teams look to separate themselves from the chasing pack.
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The two Melbourne teams sit one-two on the NBL ladder for the first time since round 14 of the 2021-22 season, with United looking near unbeatable and the Phoenix finally healthy and finding cohesion.
In the ‘Hoops Capital’, the reigning champion Sydney Kings are an early work in progress, a surprise packet up north is exceeding expectations and several teams are already facing a season-defining stretch.
Michael Randall ranks the teams who are hot — and those who are not — based on last round’s movers and shakers.
1. Melbourne United (First, 8-1)
With two and, in some cases, three legitimate starters at every position, Melbourne United look injury-proof. Haven’t had their full line-up available in any game this season and went into last round without Matthew Dellavedova, then lost import Ian Clark for Sunday’s clash with Illawarra, but still came through without a blemish. Chris Goulding is shooting the lights out, Luke Travers gets better with every game and Shea Ili is a defensive monster who has expanded his offensive game again. This mob is primed.
Big question: It’s the same as the start of the season — how do Jo Lual-Acuil Jr and Ariel Hukporti fit?
Next Star Hukporti has started every game but JLA has played more minutes in each of the last three, leaving Dean Vickerman with a good problem, but a juggling act at the five, nonetheless.
Coming up: Host struggling Perth on Cup Eve before a top-of-the-table all-Melbourne blockbuster Throwdown against the Phoenix, followed by the reigning champion Sydney and then surprise packet Cairns — pass those tests and the lid will be obliterated, if it isn’t already.
2. South East Melbourne Phoenix (Second, 5-3)
Stared down the barrel of a 1-4 start as the injury curse that has plagued the Phoenix throughout their existence continued to bite across the squad. All of a sudden, there’s health in the Heartland and that’s translated to four straight wins and second on the table. Alan Williams is back from knee surgery and looks like an MVP candidate, import guard Gary Browne and Will Cummings are forming a lethal partnership, with Ben Ayre providing punch off the bench. All that’s produced the added benefit of taking a bit of pressure off superstar Mitch Creek.
Big question: It’s still can they stay healthy?
If they get lucky, keep the squad on the hardwood, SEM, along with Sydney and Tasmania, are probably Melbourne’s toughest challengers. The back court is elite, Sauce is a monster, Creek’s one of the league’s best and this might just be the deepest team Phoenix has ever had.
Coming up: A tough double this round with a visit to the firing Bullets and then a home date with Cairns, before the aforementioned Throwdown with United that should be box office.
3. Brisbane Bullets (Sixth, 4-4)
Looked great, then cooked, now great again. Rookie coach Justin Schueller refuses to buy into the “transition year” suggestion that I’ve made and has turned veteran guard Nathan Sobey into an MVP candidate, journeyman wing Sam McDaniel into a Defensive Player of the Year smokey and will have young big Josh Bannan will be right in the Next Gen Award conversation at season’s end. They’ve already won four games — that’s half way to last season’s total of eight. Big tick.
Big question: How does Aron Baynes reintegrate and how do they cover Shannon Scott?
During Baynes’ five-game ban for his brain snap against Cairns, the Bullets stuck with champions Sydney and top-of-the-table Melbourne United, were soundly beaten by SEM in a second game in three days, then knocked off Perth in Perth and beat title hopefuls Tasmania. Expect Baynes to return with a point to prove. It is Scott’s hamstring injury that gives cause for greatest concern — he’s out for at least another three games, with the Bullets targetting the November 18 clash with Perth for his return. Can veteran Mitch Norton keep the Bullets afloat until then?
Coming up: Baynes returns in time for a goliath showdown with Alan Williams and the second-placed SEM — before visits to Tassie, then Sydney in a brutal stretch that will give a much clearer picture of where this team is truly at.
4. Cairns Taipans (Third, 3-2)
Here we are again. Everyone picked the Taipans to finish last in NBL23 and they made it to the semis. They lost their three best players in Keanu Pinder, DJ Hogg and Shannon Scott, replacing them with a host of emerging young talents and a wrecking ball import guard in Pat Miller. They’ve been hammered by injuries and absences but still managed to break even after a trip to the US. It took a Tyler Harvey heartbreaker to sink the Snakes against Illawarra and then a win over the reigning champs has morale high. Long, strong and talented, one of the hardest teams to scout for the variety of looks at Adam Forde’s disposal.
Big question: Can Fordey keep all the Taipans happy?
This team has been a joy to watch at times, with different players stepping up at different times. Miller has been the driving force, but went down against the Kings and is no certainty to suit up in the immediate future, but they should get Taran Armstrong back. Next Star Bobi Klintman looks like he could be anything in the NBA, returning stars Bul Kuol and Sam Waardenburg appear to be hitting their straps, then there’s Sam Menenga, Lat Mayen and Akoldah Gak. Oh, and a pretty decent player in captain Taj McCall is set to return this weekend. Even with the health issues, import big Josh Roberts has hardly seen the floor — could a change there make them even stronger?
Coming up: Outside of South East Melbourne on Sunday, the Taipans have a softer run with strugglers NZ, Illawarra and Perth. Beat the Phoenix and second spot is there for the taking.
5. Adelaide 36ers (Seventh, 3-5)
Where do you start with the Sixers? Simply didn’t get their recruiting right to start the season and that led to an unbalanced roster and one of the quickest import cuts ever, with Jamaal Franklin axed during the pre-season Blitz. Adelaide lost its first four games, it looked like curtains and the jungle drums began to beat for coach CJ Bruton. But you can’t accuse the Sixers of sitting on their hands. They lured dual NBL-champion Dejan Vasiljevic — much to the Kings’ disdain. Next Star Trentyn Flowers was touted as the point guard the Sixers needed — it was quickly evident he was not — but, what he is is an 18-year-old kid with size, speed and athleticism to burn who plays with an infectious joy for the game. Bruton has shortened the rotation, involved big man Isaac Humphries more and his connection with DJ — the pair has known each other for over a decade and played junior hoops together — has been instant.
Big question: Is it sustainable — and are the Sixers done with their roster yet?
There are still holes — especially if one of Humphries or Jacob Wiley goes down — but there’s no doubt Vasiljevic has breathed new life into this Sixers’ squad, not just with his stellar play but with his leadership off the court, having initiated a player-only meeting where home truths were aired and new standards set. The Sixers still have an import vacancy and It’s understood they haven’t ruled out adding another big, should the opportunity to secure a high-quality international present itself.
Coming up: Big watch on Saturday night’s trip to Perth — can the Sixers emulate the Bullets of last week and snatch a win out of the jungle? It gets tougher with Tassie, then SEM but follow that with a win over NZ and 2-2 wouldn’t be the worst result.
6. Sydney Kings (Fourth, 4-3)
Cue the ‘Melbourne bias’ from my mates up in the Hoops Capital but even they would acknowledge the start to the season has been far from perfect. The revamped Kings have had moments where they’ve looked unstoppable — and others where they’ve looked disjointed, especially off back-to-back losses to Tassie at home and then the Taipans in Cairns. It’s only natural. Superstar recruit DJ Hogg has just made his Kings debut but they’ve lost the emergent Jaylin Galloway to injury. It’s a tough ask for Mahmoud Abdelfattah to come in off the back of one of the best coaches to ever grace the league in Chase Buford and have a team with five new starters immediately hum. Relax, Sydney crew. With the likes of Hogg, Jaylen Adams, Jordy Hunter, Jonah Bolden and teen Next Star Alex Toohey — who plays like a 10-year veteran and potential first-round NBA draft prospect — along with a bench mob the envy of the league, the Kings will be just fine.
Big question: Will Denzel Valentine figure it out?
A college stud, Valentine never quite got it right at NBA level. He’s just been OK, so far, and the 10-5-4 line shows his versatility but, if the former Chicago Bull explodes, he could be the key to knocking United off its perch at the top of the table.
Coming up: If the Kings can bounce back from losses to Cairns and Tasmania and tick off a trio of wins over Illawarra, NZ and Brisbane, it sets up a mouth-watering date with Melbourne United.
7. Tasmania JackJumpers (Fifth, 4-4)
I was one of the few to doubt the Jackies new direction, pre-season, and, just when they’d brought me round, they produced a pair of goose eggs against Melbourne and Brisbane that dropped them from second to fifth. It’s not that I don’t think the Ants aren’t contenders, I just feel there’s been a bit of addition by subtraction. They’ve undoubtedly improved offensively — No.1 rating in the NBL — but losing their two best wing defenders in Sam McDaniel and Matt Kenyon has been a bigger blow than many think. Wings and guards have feasted (Jordan Usher 35, Nate Sobey 28, Jaylen Adams 21(twice), Gary Browne 20) and, while the back court of Milton Doyle and Jordon Crawford has been elite and Jack McVeigh superb, they need more help off the bench — and in the big man department. Last season, the Jackies had the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBL but, through eight games in NBL24, they’ve been the third worst. Coach Scott Roth pulled no punches about his side’s defence after last week’s loss to Brisbane: “Our defence is not good enough, it’s not at a championship level, it’s not at a top-four level and, as I’ve told these guys from day one, if it doesn’t get up in those categories of being better in defending the three-point line and keeping guys off the foul line, you’re just in for a long season.”
Big question: Can Will Magnay first get on the floor, then get back to his best again?
Former NBA man Magnay looms as a huge key to completing the puzzle for the JackJumpers. He hasn’t played a game since February 19, last year, but is back in training and will be vital to supporting import big Marcus Lee and rounding out the Ants’ squad.
Coming up: Brissy again in a revenge game, this time in Tassie, then Adelaide (twice), Cairns and NZ (twice) — a softer run that gives the Ants a chance to right the ship.
8. Illawarra Hawks (Ninth, 2-5)
Where do you start with the Hawks? With a roster overhaul and relatively clean bill of health, this team was supposed to be a contender. It has been anything but, beating an injury-hit SEM and relying on a Tyler Harvey buzzer beater to knock off Cairns. There’s just something NQR with the Hawks and coach Jacob Jackomas is under huge pressure from the loyal fanbase to fix things — fast. In Harvey, Clark, Justin Robinson and Sam Froling, the Hawks have a talented nucleus that hasn’t quite clicked. Teenage lump Lachlan Olbrich has been one of the most impressive young Aussies in the league, relishing the bash and crash with more experienced bigs and refusing to give up on any play. He has talent to burn and a role that’s expanding. It was a solid round for the Hawks with the win over Cairns and a respectable effort against an albeit undermanned United on the road.
Big question: Will Gary Clark fulfil his NBA promise and is Next Star AJ Johnson up to it?
The answer to the former is the Hawks will really hope so and the answer to the latter is who knows? Clark came in with big raps as a potential MVP candidate but there’s been a gulf between his best and worst. A season-high 24 points against United was accompanied by just two rebounds — the Hawks were outrebounded 49-24. Highly-rated American teen Johnson is averaging just five minutes per game and has just 11 points for the season. Is it time Jackomas unleashed the kid or is he that far off it?
Coming up: A Freeway Series grudge match with state rival Sydney always tosses up the unexpected, before the Hawks hit the road for Cairns, NZ then Brisbane. Lose all those and it’s curtains.
9. New Zealand Breakers (Last, 1-4)
After making the grand final last season, New Zealand has had a horror start to NBL24. I’ll let coach Mody Maor explain:
“We had the most players out of anybody in the league going to the World Cup, a very disrupted pre-season because of it. (It’s) hard to become a team when you don’t have everybody. And, over the course of the pre-season, while we got players back, we kept losing players to injuries, a lot of them unlucky. We lost Will (McDowell-White) for six weeks, then we lost Finn (Delany) for six weeks, we lost Mantas (Rubstavicius) for six weeks, we lost (Justinian) Jessup for the whole season and now we have lost Zylan (Cheatham for 6-8 weeks). These are not excuses, these are the circumstances with which we have been faced.”
Could have lost to SEM by 40 but, from 26 down with three minutes to go in the third, the Breakers were almost hauled over the line by the incredible Parker Jackson-Cartwright (33 points).
Big question: Can Will McDowell-White become an MVP candidate and Boomer?
McDowell-White looked back to his attacking best in the last quarter of the fightback against SEM and, if he can continue that, then the Breakers can’t be written off. A lob threat for WMDW to work with in the pick and roll would be really, really handy, right now.
Coming up: Cairns, Sydney, Perth, Tasmania, Illawarra. In the Breakers’ current predicament, no match up is ideal.
10. Perth Wildcats (Eighth, 2-5)
The owner’s backed the under-fire coach, the star’s wife has launched on social media, players are clashing with each other, with fans at the arena and with trolls on Instagram and the Red Army is baying for blood. It ain’t pretty in Perth.
Big question: Does Perth really have the talent to turn it around?
They’re preaching it and any team with Bryce Cotton always has a chance, but the three-time MVP has been off the boil and no one’s been able to pick up the slack. Was Hutchy’s backing of John Rillie rock solid or the kiss of death? Time will tell but Rillie will be under no illusion he needs to find a way to right the sinking ship immediately.
Coming up: A revenge game hosting Adelaide Saturday night, followed by a visit to Melbourne to take on top-of-the-table Melbourne United on Monday gives Rillie and Co an opportunity to turn the tide. Beating the 36ers is essential. Home stands against New Zealand, then Cairns, could prove decisive.
Originally published as NBL rankings: Which clubs are hot — and not — after Round 5 of the 2023-24 season
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