NBL 2023-24: South East Melbourne Phoenix season preview, starting five analysis, predictions and more
Here’s everything you need to know about the South East Melbourne Phoenix, including the import tipped to be right in the NBL MVP discussions. Check out the full preview.
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How far can the South East Melbourne Phoenix go in the 2023-24 NBL season?
Michael Randall takes a deep dive into the roster, starting five, potential award winners and plenty more in this comprehensive preview.
Club: South East Melbourne Phoenix
Last season: 5th, 15-13 record
Coach: Mike Kelly, 95 games (31-64)
Full roster: Alan Williams, Anzac Rissetto, Austin Rapp, Ben Ayre, Craig Moller, Gary Browne, Gorjok Gak, Kody Stattmann, Luke Rosendale, Matt Kenyon, Mitch Creek, Owen Foxwell, Reuben Te Rangi, Rhys Vague, Tyler Cook, Will Cummings
BENCH PUNCH
Ben Ayre: A hard working new arrival who will be the first man off the bench with the green light to fill it up on the offensive end — and a mandate to be the kind of agitator you love to have on your team, but loathe playing against.
Reuben Te Rangi: The Phoenix will hope to see flashes of ‘FIBA Te Rangi’ in NBL24 after he averaged 16.4 points for the Tall Blacks at the World Cup.
Matt Kenyon: Sidelined for most of the pre-season, the Phoenix hope the former JackJumper will be available to suit up in round one, his ability to blanket the opposition’s best defender a huge key to the team’s defensive identity.
Gorjok Gak: Another defensive presence — on the interior — Gak is long and athletic and will be leaned on to provide stops at the defensive end and act as a lob threat on offence.
COACH’S CORNER
“I love our guys, they’ve bought into what we’re trying to do and I believe this group can play a high level defensively and put stops together on a consistent basis and then, on the offensive end, have a dynamic scoring group that moves the ball, shares the ball and attacks the rim. We have an emphasis on the defensive end of the floor and it’s something that, if we’re able to buy into that, we’re going to be pretty damn good, and, if we don’t buy into it, we’re going to beat teams when we really shoot the ball well.”
—Mike Kelly
WHAT’S CHANGED SINCE LAST YEAR?
A lot, starting with the coach and a bunch of new import players but, despite the roster turnover, key pieces in Mitch Creek, Alan Williams and Gary Browne return. Mike Kelly brings a different approach to coaching than his good friend and predecessor Simon Mitchell but, while he might not have the same intensity, he will demand similar high standards. Kelly was a two-time NBL Defensive Player of the Year and his teaching and focus begins at that end of the floor. The former NBL Coach of the Year has brought new assistants in Sam Mackinnon, Luke Brennan and Adam Gibson, and the Phoenix, in a bid to level-up off the court, have bolstered their front office and marketing divisions.
THE HOT SEAT: MITCH CREEK
Being in the hot seat can be interpreted in many different ways. In Creek’s case, there’s no concern about job security — Creek is the best player on this team. That ensures he’s always in the hot seat to put up consistent big performances. It’s a pressure he relishes and, while he’s almost always delivered on a personal level, the Phoenix are yet to win a title on his watch and, as a foundation member, that would be something he’d love to change in NBL24.
THE BIG QUESTION
Will the Phoenix ever get a run at it without injuries to key players?
Flashback to the team’s first ever home game in 2019 and the Phoenix defeated the Brisbane Bullets, but lost import Tai Wesley to injury and it feels like it’s been the same old story ever since. It’s something that grates on the Phoenix hierarchy and they’ll again go into the season off an interrupted prep with Alan Williams grounded for up to eight weeks with a knee injury, Gorjok Gak downed for six weeks with an ankle sprain, Matt Kenyon hardly touching the court with foot and back ailments, Mitch Creek missing a pair of NBL Blitz games with a calf (expect him to battle through if it was a regular season game). The old saying goes ‘availability is the best ability’ and how — if at all — the Phoenix can get their best team on the floor will determine whether or not they’re a playoff team.
EXPERT COMMENT
Phoenix foundation player Ben Madgen says the Phoenix have a great mix of arriving talent and continuity that could put them in the top four.
“Going back to my experience in the NBL, the teams that were able to hold on to their core for long periods were always so potent. I’m talking about Perth Wildcats and New Zealand Breakers. Between 2010-20 one or both of them were in virtually every finals series.
“Phoenix have been able to do that with (Mitch) Creeky, Gary Browne, Alan Williams and Owen Foxwell coming back but they’ve also added some high-quality talent.”
Among those is new import Will Cummings, who Madgen has played against in Europe.
“Will Cummings is a huge one. I played against him in Germany when he was playing for Oldenburg and he’s an exceptional talent. I’ve also played him in the EuroLeague when he was playing for Russian side Lokomotiv Kuban. He’s a super-skilled guard who can play on and off the ball, can score, he’s pretty long and he can defend.
“I think he’s a bit unassuming and has maybe gone under the radar but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up there in the MVP chats towards the end of the year, I rate him that highly.”
Madgen said the level of talent across the NBL had made it so much more difficult to predict which teams would emerge in the race for finals positions.
“South East Melbourne have definitely got a great roster but, looking across the board, a lot of teams do, so it’s exciting for the NBL and the Phoenix have got as good a chance as anyone. They’ve got to gel, especially the new guys coming in, but yeah I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the top four this year, that’s for sure.”
PREDICTIONS
Mick Randall says: If the Phoenix can get healthy quickly, on paper, they’re right in the mix with Melbourne, Sydney and Perth among the best teams in the league. The early signs aren’t good but Mike Kelly has built a reputation as a players’ coach, so if anyone can pull a team disrupted team together, it’s him.
NBL AWARD CONTENDERS
MVP: Mitch Creek, Alan Williams
Sixth Man of the Year: Ben Ayre
Defensive Player of the Year: Matt Kenyon, Gorjok Gak
CODE BET SAYS
The Phoenix were a little shaky in the Blitz going 1-2 in their three games, but definitely have a talented squad led by Tyler Cook who won the Ray Borner Trophy as the best player in the Gold Coast tournament.
Coming off an All-NBL First Team selection last season, Mitch Creek is the MVP favourite ($4.33) and no wonder, as he has improved his shooting range and can build huge stat lines.
In saying that, South East Melbourne relies on Creeky a little too much to lift them over the line in clutch moments and will need the likes of Gary Browne and Cook to become leaders at both ends this season.
When playing at its best this Phoenix side is hard to stop, but often lacks that consistent quality for four quarters. If the team can gel quickly early in the season, it could be the value team to make a deep run. But South East Melbourne still has a long way to go.
BEST BET: To Make Top 6 – Yes ($1.45)
Liam McAllion
SUPERCOACH
An intriguing team for SuperCoaches with plenty of high end candidates in Mitch Creek (F, $418,900), Gary Browne (G, $277,000) and Will Cummings (G, $277,000) to consider. The big play might be to start with productive injury replacement Tyler Cook (F-C, $277,000), hope he makes a ton of money, then trade him straight to Alan Williams (C, $381,600) once the latter is fit to return to the court. There’s a case to include Ben Ayre as a potential early-season money maker.
KEY STATS YOU NEED TO KNOW
South East Melbourne recorded the equal-most wins by a margin of five points or less (6) last season.
South East Melbourne ranked 1st for first quarter points per game (24.9) last season.
South East Melbourne has never finished higher than 6th in defensive rating in their 4 seasons of existence
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Originally published as NBL 2023-24: South East Melbourne Phoenix season preview, starting five analysis, predictions and more
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