Chiefs vs Niners: Super Bowl 58 odds, best bets, tips and picks
The 2024 NFL Super Bowl pits the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Francisco 49ers - with a big dose of Taylor Swift. What are the odds and the best bets for the big game?
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The 2024 NFL Super Bowl sees the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers do battle at Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium on Monday February 12 at 10am. Can Patrick Mahomes and the reigning champion Chiefs be spurred on by Taylor Swift to go back-to-back and win their third Super Bowl of the past five years? Or will Brock Purdy and the Niners spoil the Swifties party? Read on for NFL Straya and CODE Bet’s NFL Super Bowl 58 odds, best bets and break down of the game.
2024 SUPER BOWL - WHAT ARE THE ODDS?
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: $2.10
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: $1.80
Full Chiefs vs Niners SUPER BOWL 58 CODE Bet Match Centre here
A replay of 2020’s Super Bowl 54, this time the NFC 1-seed Niners (12-5) are favourites heading into Super Bowl 58, with the 11-6 AFC 3-seeded Chiefs going into their third straight playoff game as underdogs.
The headlines might’ve been dominated by Taylor Swift - her rookie season in the NFL has blown away all expectations - but this is also a matchup that could deliver a classic, as evidenced by how close the odds are.
The coaches on either side are viewed as masterminds, with Kansas City’s Andy Reid chasing his third Super Bowl ring in his fifth appearance in the big game (and is 27-4 after bye weeks for his career), while Niners HC Kyle Shanahan is searching for his first ring in his second trip to the Supie as a head coach.
The quarterbacks on either side couldn’t be more different either: superstar Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs - on a 10-year, $450M contract - is also chasing his third Super Bowl title, while Niners QB Brock Purdy was the final pick of the 2022 NFL draft and was the Niners third-string QB entering last season.
Amazingly Purdy is on a four-year, $3,737,008 deal that pays him - in total - only slightly more than Mahomes cap hit ($3.3M) per game.
Now their teams face off in the biggest spectacle in sport.
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SUPER BOWL TOTAL POINTS - OVER/UNDER
Four of the past five Super Bowls have seen their total points go under, and for Super Bowl 58, the total points line sits around the 47.5 mark.
It’s a line that’s the lowest since 2015, but it makes a lot of sense, considering it’s a clash of two of the top 3 defences in the league.
Between the two squads, only three of their past 10 combined games have hit over this 47.5 mark, while Kansas City were the 30th-ranked team in the NFL in games hitting the over, going 6-14 for the year.
The Niners, for their part, were 11-8 with totals going over.
The defences on both sides are solid and the initial read on this total was under, but in a similar fashion to last year’s Super Bowl, despite the defensive prowess, there’s 3+ TD upside for both offences and it wouldn’t be a surprise if it just squeaks over in a 27-21 final.
Total Points - Over 47.5
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CAN KC BEAT THE ODDS AGAIN?
After winning last year’s Super Bowl over the Eagles and having the best offence in the league (413.6 total yards and 29.2 points a game), the Chiefs saw that output drop off dramatically this season, finishing the regular season 17th in the NFL for points scored with 21.8 per outing.
But the Chiefs have done a terrific New England Patriots impersonation - where despite not looking at their best all season, they’ve continued to win.
Now KC has covered the line in five straight games as they head into Super Bowl 58, and Patrick Mahomes is suddenly 2-0 against the line as a road underdog in his playoff career.
The Chiefs defence is likely the best unit in this game - especially with the dip the Niners offence has taken since the Christmas Day game against Baltimore, which saw last week’s 34 points against Detroit being the first time San Francisco had topped 27 points since then - and gave up 17.3 points a game in the regular season and is only allowing a miserly 13.7 in their three playoff games.
Essentially, when the Chiefs D shows up, they win. KC is 13-2 head-to-head and 11-3-1 in covering the line when its defence gives up 20 points or less.
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The key will be Isiah Pacheco and the KC run game taking advantage of a Niners defence that just gave up 136 rushing yards to the Packers and 182 to the Lions to help open up the Chiefs passing game to Travis Kelce.
With how good Pacheco has been - 89, 97 and 68 yards in the three playoff games so far, as well as a touchdown in seven straight games- KC should be able to do just that and Kelce will be a big beneficiary.
It also means that Mahomes - with a receiving attack that’s not as good as years past - might duck just below his passing yards total, having not topped 263 yards in any of his last five games.
Patrick Mahomes - Under 262.5 passing yards
Isiah Pacheco - Over 68.5 Rushing Yards
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WILL THE NINERS RIDE ‘MR IRRELEVANT’ TO THE TITLE?
Brock Purdy might’ve been ‘Mr Irrelevant’ - the last pick in the 2022 NFL draft - but his skill-set has been ideal in coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes and surrounded by a terrifying amount of talent in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.
After the 1-seeded Niners squeaked by the Packers and Lions, the Niners have a battle on the their hands against the Chiefs defence, but this offence has been terrific all year: 257.9 yards per game in the air (4th best in the NFL), 140.5 on the ground (3rd best) and an average of 28.9 points an outing (3rd best).
McCaffrey in particular has been terrific - scoring a TD in his last six playoff games, but most importantly, the 27-year-old running back rushed for 1,459 yards this season and 98 and 90 the last two weeks, but has been catching the ball plenty this season had 67 receptions during the regular season and 11 in their two playoff games.
In fact, McCaffrey has had at least four receptions in each of his last five games.
Expect the Niners to have to throw a bit to try and keep up with Kansas City and pierce the Chiefs defence and for McCaffrey to get in the end zone after multiple TDs in his two playoff games this season.
But with how good the KC passing defence is, it might cap Purdy’s passing totals.
Brock Purdy - Under 245.5 passing yards
Christian McCaffrey - Over 30+ receiving yards, Over 4 receptions, Over 90.5 rushing yards
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SUPER BOWL MVP ODDS
Six of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs have been won by a quarterback, which gives folks a little more wiggle room for the likes of Kelce or McCaffrey to step up.
Of course, both Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy are integral to their respective team success, but where else are we looking?
If the lean is for the Chiefs to win, their offensive fulcrum and in-case-of-emergency-break-here is Kelce.
He’s Mahomes’ favourite target by far, and there’s also a great run of 2TD scorers in Super Bowls over the last four years, where a player has scored 2TDs in each of the last four Supies.
If the big tight end gets in for two TDs - which he did against Buffalo in the Divisional Round - he could easily walk away with the Super Bowl MVP, which would be a huge moment for Swifties everywhere.
On the other hand, if you like the Niners to get up, McCaffrey is the obvious choice, but the real game breaker on San Francisco on offence is Deebo Samuel. If there’s a Niner who can stand out from the crowd and make game-changing plays almost on his own with yards after the catch in various roles, it’s Deebo.
- Patrick Mahomes $2.25
- Brock Purdy - $3
- Christian McCaffrey - $5.25
- Travis Kelce - $15
- Deebo Samuel - $17
- Isiah Pacheco - $41
- Brandon Aiyuk - $51
- Rashee Rice - $51
- George Kittle - $67
- Chris Jones - $101
- Nick Bosa - $101
(odds via Ladbrokes)
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SUPER BOWL FIRST TD SCORER
Christian McCaffrey - $4.75
He’s the favourite for a reason: McCaffrey scored the Niners first TD 7-of-18 (38.8%) of his games this season and it was the first touchdown of the game three times.
Isiah Pacheco - $6.60
The Niners run defence has given up plenty of yards and scores to RBs over the last two weeks - three TDs alone on the ground last week - so Pacheco could easily get in. He’s done ti six times already this season as well.
Travis Kelce - $7.75
Kelce has done it the last two games for the Chiefs and also scored KC’s’ first TD in five of their past six playoff outings. He’s the obvious pick.
Deebo Samuel - $13
As a pass catcher (18) AND a runner (9), Deebo has had plenty of red zone looks, plus he’s been shredding, scoring nine TDs in the Niners last six games and getting in for the first TD three times.
Noah Gray - $41
It’s the perfect set up: it’s the Super Bowl and everyone has backed Kelce for first TD... and Mahomes throws it into the endzone to a big tight end as everyone loses their mind... and slowly realises it was Gray. He’s had 8 targets over the last two weeks and is great value.
(odds via Ladbrokes)
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WHO WINS SUPER BOWL 58?
With the Chiefs having already won two Super Bowls and now playing in their fifth Supie of the Mahomes-Reid era, it’s hard to go against that wealth of institutional knowledge and experience.
Andy Reid for his career is also 27-4 after a bye week, and the Chiefs defence is the best unit on the field.
Despite the talent on both sides of the ball for the Niners, their form since Christmas has been spotty at best, while the Chiefs just find ways to win.
Mahomes, Kelce, the Swfties and the underdog Kansas City Chiefs are the pick.
THE SUPER BOWL 58 PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
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BEST SUPER BOWL BETS
- Isiah Pacheco - Over 68.5 Rushing Yards + Anytime TD
- Travis Kelce - Anytime TD
- Christian McCaffrey - Over 30+ receiving yards, Over 4 receptions, Anytime TD
- Total Points - Over 47.5
- Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
NFL STRAYA’S SUPER BOWL SGM
Total Points - Over 47
Travis Kelce - anytime TD
Christian McCaffrey - anytime TD
Isiah Pacheco - 80+ Rushing Yards
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Originally published as Chiefs vs Niners: Super Bowl 58 odds, best bets, tips and picks
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