Why the numbers suggest Geelong will miss Patrick Dangerfield more after hamstring injury

Patrick Dangerfield went down at a similar time in 2022 and Geelong didn’t miss a beat but this year his form suggests the Cats could face a different story.

Patrick Dangerfield watches on at Geelong training. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

As Geelong steadily picked up steam last year in what was to be a history-making 16-win streak that culminated in a premiership, it did so largely without Patrick Dangerfield.

Patrick Dangerfield has been dominant in the past few weeks. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The superstar midfielder was subbed out of a round 10 win over Port Adelaide with a worrisome calf and missed the next four games as the Cats became a flag-winning side.

The Cats didn’t really need him in 2022 to get their season going, but this year, he has been possibly the biggest factor in a five-game streak that revived Geelong’s campaign.

While Jeremy Cameron remains the consensus pick as the best player in the game, Dangerfield was better in the four weeks leading up to his hamstring injury after halftime against Adelaide.

The only thing missing from the peak Dangerfield days of 2016-17, when he put together possibly the finest back-to-back campaigns of the modern era, was scoreboard impact as the veteran lit up the stat sheet.

From rounds 4-7, he was the No.1 player in the AFL for score involvements and inside-50s, while ranking third for clearances and fifth for metres gained, according to Champion Data, as he powered Geelong’s midfield to life.

After an indifferent first three weeks, as the Cats lost each game, Geelong’s midfield has hit its straps in the past five games, ranking first in the league for contested possession differential and points from clearances, while coming in second for clearance differential.

With Dangerfield likely missing over the next few weeks, the Cats will genuinely miss his output, unlike in 2022.

The Cats have been getting the ball inside-50 better than any other side and keeping it there – ranking top in the past five weeks for forward-half intercepts.

Max Holmes may need to step up without Dangerfield. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

When the ball is in Geelong’s half, it’s usually lights out for the opposition, with the Cats scoring from 52 per cent of their inside-50s over that span, good for second ranking in the AFL.

But without Dangerfield – remember, he got the ball inside-50 more than anybody else in rounds 4-7 – Geelong may need a new generator of midfield power.

Youngster Max Holmes is getting better each week, Mark Blicavs is having another excellent year and Tanner Bruhn is fresh off the best quarter of his career.

It might take a few names to cover for the skipper this year.

Originally published as Why the numbers suggest Geelong will miss Patrick Dangerfield more after hamstring injury