Moneyball trade update: Your club’s top targets, who could be on the move
Ollie Wines was super-keen to get to Carlton last year. Given he might not even be in Port Adelaide’s best 22 right now, will he look to make the same move again at the end of 2020? See who is on your club’s early trade radar.
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List managers have emerged from their AFL-enforced slumber to begin considering how to lock down their stars and poach rivals in a looming crazy log-jam of an off-season.
With no clarity on list sizes, the salary cap or an end to the freeze on contracting, it is all going to happen in a crazy few months the likes of which we have never seen.
Jon Ralph offers some preposterously early trade predictions and considers your club’s biggest trade/free agency/draft conundrum.
ADELAIDE
Brad Crouch was either desperate to get out last year or was using Gold Coast to bump up his value for a long-term extension that never occurred.
Right now Adelaide has picks two, 12 (a GWS first-rounder), 21 and 22 in this year’s draft and would add another high selection if Crouch leaves.
The Suns would consider it — and Melbourne clubs might take a look — but, to be honest, the Crows can’t really lose. If he leaves they might get a top-five compensation pick for a player they have a lot of (slowish inside midfielder) and if he stays he is only 27 next year. Having taken three top-30 picks in both of the past two drafts they will stick to a strategy of securing three years of elite draft talent.
Melbourne clubs still believe he will end up signing at Adelaide.
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BRISBANE LIONS
The Lions had salary room for both Lachie Neale and Dayne Beams 18 months ago and they still have cap space. Like many clubs, they would love another explosive midfielder, but they are hard to find.
All the kids are signed up long-term so with Stef Martin 34 in November, is Oscar McInerney his successor or do they need back-up? Will keep an eye on injury-prone Nakia Cockatoo if he can’t get a run at it, having had similar luck resuscitating the career of ex-Cat Lincoln McCarthy. In a great spot.
CARLTON
The old stagers Marc Murphy, Matthew Kreuzer and Kade Simpson are out of contract but those deals will take care of themselves.
Despite Jack Martin’s solid start they won’t shy away from another huge crack at Tom Papley and, given the Blues’ early-season form, they might again have a reasonably high draft pick to bargain with.
Early indications are they still need a strong-bodied mid to help Patrick Cripps, who according to those close to him he is extremely happy, having told the Herald Sun’s Mark Robinson only weeks ago he wasn’t going anywhere past a deal running to 21. Don’t get too worried about talk of a contract freeze.
Ollie Wines was super-keen to get to Carlton last year and isn’t in Port Adelaide’s best 22 right now. If they could absorb his considerable salary it might help minimise the pick they offered to Port Adelaide. The rebuild can’t last forever.
COLLINGWOOD
Darcy Moore and Jordan de Goey want to stay, the Pies want to keep them.
The Pies have shown they will offer extremely long deals to spread out money from contracts, but will clubs be gun-shy about those deals in the post-COVID era?
Might need to get rid of another mid-pricer to keep everyone under the cap.
Tom Phillips was nearly that player in last year’s trade period after attracting interest from Geelong.
Eventually James Aish was squeezed out to Fremantle. Phillips stayed and was excellent against Richmond last week.
ESSENDON
Joe Daniher is making his best progress in some time but no one wants to rush him, aware this is the club’s last chance to get him right.
Daniher, splitting time between Melbourne and the Daylesford area, is in a good frame of mind. But if he breaks down again surely he is done with the Dons.
And if he gets up and running there is great incentive for Sydney to throw big dollars at the free agent. Having officially requested a trade last year, it would surprise if that request didn’t come again.
Adam Saad will get a new deal.
The hope will be the emergence of Darcy Parish and Andy McGrath in the midfield will mean they won’t need to chase an Ollie Wines-type.
FREMANTLE
All signs point to the Dockers going again at the draft after securing Hayden Young, Caleb Serong and Liam Henry with picks 8-10 last year.
They know they are rebuilding, and can do so while also securing canny recruits like James Aish and Blake Acres that don’t disrupt the recruiting strategy.
With David Mundy potentially retiring and Aaron Sandilands and Brad Hill gone they must have squillions in salary cap space. If Collingwood can’t find cash for Brody Mihocek, Justin Longmuir should have a dip at the Pies forward to test the market and see if he can round out a forward line with Matt Taberner and Jesse Hogan.
GEELONG
Geelong would be negligent if it didn’t try its hand in the Jeremy Cameron free agency sweepstakes. The Dartmoor product would he the perfect successor to Tom Hawkins, who has had early discussions about the club about a certain extension.
If Cameron was to go to a Victorian club it would be one like Geelong with proximity to beaches and quality fishing spots, but, while he isn’t in a hurry, the likelihood is he will re-sign with the Giants.
The Cats can’t have much cap space even as Harry Taylor, Lachie Henderson and Gary Ablett go around for the last time. But they do have three first-round draft picks, including West Coast’s first-rounder and the mid-first round Gold Coast priority pick (No. 11).
Why not ask the question of Sydney’s Tom McCartin, a former Geelong Falcon, even though he is contracted and says he’s very keen to remain in the Harbour City.
GOLD COAST
More than happy to continue monitoring Brad Crouch’s progress as an Adelaide free agent, but for the first time in a long time almost every priority target is signed up.
Jack Lukosius and Ben King cost plenty, but it was worth the cash.
The Suns have just fixed their salary cap space issues so they won’t want to get into a tight spot again. Matt Rowell has agreed to terms for a two-year extension and while Noah Anderson hasn’t started discussions past 2021, the club can build around the Rowell-Anderson-Lukosius-King-Izak Rankine grouping.
Needs to find half-back speed to eventually replace Pearce Hanley and Jarrod Harbrow.
GWS GIANTS
Melbourne clubs believe Zac Williams is the player who could eventually fall out. He is a free agent with elite speed who can play midfield. Who doesn’t want one of them?
His manager Anthony McConville said of Williams on Wednesday: “Zac is pretty much keen to let his footy do the talking for most of the year before we know where things are heading.
“Zac is happy at the Giants and as to what all contracts will look like down the track, we just don’t know where the goalposts are.”
Jeremy Cameron was also happy to wait before contracts were put on hold, while Jeremy Finlayson, Jye Caldwell and Jackson Hately are out, too. But the Giants continue to do a magnificent job of keeping who they need to keep despite rival interest.
HAWTHORN
The Hawks need quality outside pace with a strong inside core of midfielders but Brad Hill gone and Isaac Smith turning 32 in December.
The old blokes are all out of contract – Smith, James Frawley, Ricky Henderson, Paul Puopolo and Shaun Burgoyne, as well as skipper Ben Stratton. It means hard decisions but also cap space if tough calls are made.
They missed on Tom Lynch 12 months ago so have some cash to spend. Jaidyn Stephenson is happy as can be at Collingwood but they need to find that kind of dynamic wingman/half-forward for the next flag tilt. If not him, who?
With 12 players aged 29 or older, are they close to a flag or treading water? Not sure.
MELBOURNE
The Demons have gone all in this year after handing over their 2020 No. 1 pick (in a deal with North Melbourne that helped land first-round picks Luke Jackson and Kysaiah Pickett) and the big acquisitions of Steven May, Jake Lever, Ed Langdon and Adam Tomlinson, so they clearly have talent on the list.
Jack Viney is still to be re-signed, and while Christian Petracca will clearly have incentive clauses in his deal they did well to lock him away before a breakout year.
Michael Hibberd is the clear watch-this-space player after he was dropped last week and early draft selection Trent Rivers looked totally at home coming off half-back in that role.
With 20 players out of contract the Demons are another club with real flexibility should the AFL cut back list sizes hard. With plenty of mid-sized forwards — Mitch Hannan, Aaron vandenBerg, Pickett and Charlie Spargo weren’t in the side last week — the club at least has options if the year went pear-shaped, heaven forbid.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Don’t go quietly into the night after missing on Dustin Martin and Josh Kelly. Why not go hard early at GWS free agent Zac Williams given he is an upgrade from their current half-backs and can easily slot into a midfield role? His 25-disposal, one-goal preliminary final was proof of that.
The Roos have massive cap space, half their list out of contract to give them even more flexibility and have a second first-round pick in 2020 (from Melbourne) after that trade with the Demons. And they look like a contender in future years, which was a harder sell when they were launching at Dusty and Co. Why wouldn’t you want to play for Rhyce Shaw?
Sure to be one of the most active players.
If the salary cap is cut considerably clubs will massive cap space might have huge leverage over clubs trying to retain elite talent.
PORT ADELAIDE
Cross-town rival Adelaide was adamant Ollie Wines wasn’t in the Round 1 team before his COVID-19 protocol breach. After months of strong training and being fully fit, that would have been a kick in the guts for a bloke who probably wants to move anyway. It’s hard to see how he slots in quickly given Connor Rozee gave the midfield some snap, crackle and pop in Round 1.
But he can play. They don’t give out the captaincy by accident and as recently as 2017 Wines had a 15-goal, 628-possession year. Carlton, Essendon still seem likely landing spots.
The Power will seek to contract Charlie Dixon when allowed, with Sam Powell-Pepper the other trade target. He was probably gettable last year despite some denials, but there were few takers. He still averages only 18 touches and three clearances across his career.
RICHMOND
The Tigers have some cash from Alex Rance’s retirement’s but is still in retention mode despite links to Darcy Moore.
They want to fashion the athletic Noah Balta into a rebounding defender and Callum Coleman-Jones into a ruck-forward. Toby Nankervis would likely look for a No. 1 ruck spot at a rival club if he remains on the outer, but it’s only early on that front.
Don’t be surprised if rivals come hard for Coleman-Jones again as GWS did last year.
If Rance ends up playing elsewhere next year, so be it. He doesn’t owe the Tigers anything.
ST KILDA
Still have some salary cap room despite the recruitment of Brad Hill and Dan Hannebery.
There is something of a key defensive logjam with Jake Carlisle, Josh Battle, Callum Wilkie, Dylan Roberton, Nathan Brown and Jon Marsh, who is trying to play forward. How does that all play out and who wants to leave for more opportunities?
Luke Dunstan might get also squeezed out of the midfield.
But there is no obvious list hole. The midfield has a nice blend of inside and outside speed, they have two rucks, and quality mids like Hunter Clark are being slotted in nicely at half-back. Amazing what a win like the Dogs victory does.
The Saints have a first-round pick in the national draft, but not a second-rounder.
SYDNEY
How do they secure Joe Daniher and retain Tom Papley? They tried to pull that off last year but couldn’t get it done, but Daniher is a free agent this year.
Lance Franklin is due plenty of cash in 2021 but the Swans have lost Zak Jones and Dan Hannebery in an off-season plus old stagers like Heath Grundy, Kieren Jack and Jarrod McVeigh.
The Swans have pumped games into the kids. Daniher is the obvious play to help young developing key forward Tom McCartin. Nick Blakey could eventually become a towering wingman given his athletic gifts.
WEST COAST
Went all in on the Tim Kelly trade by giving up their 2020 first-round pick, and why wouldn’t you? Andrew Gaff is technically a free agent given a clause in his contract but he is certain to officially commit long-term.
Lewis Jetta is out of contract and veterans like Shannon Hurn, Josh Kennedy and Lewis Jetta have expiring contracts.
Exciting talls like Oscar Allen will not only have opportunity in the future but he is signed up to 2022. Can’t see much moving at the Eagles.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Dogs won’t have many picks left if they play finals, having to match a bid for likely No. 1 selection Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, a NGA academy player, and having already traded their second-round selection to the Crows in the Alex Keath deal, although they got the Adelaide third-rounder back.
He is everything he has been hyped as being, the dynamic key forward blitzing a NAB League testing day earlier this year as well as dominating junior footy with 24 goals from nine NAB league games last year.
The Dogs have a stack of players out of contract, led by Jackson Trengove, who played 16 games in each of the past two year but hasn’t played so far this year. On paper they don’t need for much given the potential Ugle-Hagan-Aaron Naughton-Josh Bruce combo. Maybe an intercepting defender, but Easton Wood is still only 30.
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Originally published as Moneyball trade update: Your club’s top targets, who could be on the move