Tipping guru Chris Cavanagh identifies the best bets from TAB in Round 18
What’s better than a fill up before finals? Our expert tipster Chris Cavanagh has identified the best bets of Round 18, including a special on two sharpshooters.
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A big final round of the season is here and some sides have a lot to play for.
We’ve previewed all the game’s from a punter’s perspective to try and help you find a winner.
Plus, scroll down for this week’s TAB market movers.
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ST KILDA v GWS GIANTS
Gabba, Friday 7.50pm
Neither of these teams have been in great form of late but I have more trust in St Kilda right now than I do GWS.
The Saints have lost three of their past four matches, but the biggest loss from those games has been 15 points to West Coast last week.
The Giants were better against Melbourne last week but ultimately let a seven-point lead at the final change slip, leaving them now needing a miracle to play finals.
The Saints have their finals spot all-but secured but it’s time to make a statement.
The Giants are in disarray and have lost to Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne in their past six games. The Saints are better than those three sides.
Consider St Kilda by 1-39 points at $2.05.
TAB ODDS: ST KILDA $1.72 GWS GIANTS $2.15
St Kilda has attracted 66% of head-to-head support to beat GWS with TAB
CHASING THE MONEY – ST KILDA v GWS
— St Kilda is coming off an eight-day break since suffering a 15-point loss to West Coast last Thursday.
— GWS is coming off a six-day break since suffering a five-point loss to Melbourne last Saturday.
— The Saints have won just one of their past four matches and two of their past six matches.
— The Giants have suffered consecutive losses to Adelaide and Melbourne and have won just two of their past six matches overall.
— GWS has won its past two matches against St Kilda since the two teams played out a draw in 2018.
— St Kilda’s most recent win over the Giants came by 23 points in Round 7, 2017.
— The Saints hold a 2-3 record at the Gabba this season while the Giants played their first game of the season at the venue last week, losing to the Demons.
— St Kilda ranks as the fifth-highest scoring team in the competition this season, averaging 67 points a game. GWS ranks ninth, averaging 61 points a game.
— The Giants have a 3-4 record against current top-eight teams this season.
TAB FRIDAY NIGHT OFFER
St Kilda’s Max King and Greater Western Sydney’s Jeremy Cameron to combine for 4+ goals is $3.50
ESSENDON v MELBOURNE
Metricon, Saturday 2.10pm
The Demons have everything to play for, with finals still a faint chance if they win this.
The Bombers, meanwhile, have looked like a team that can’t wait for the season the past fortnight, suffering consecutive 50+ point losses.
Essendon won the most recent clash between these sides by 18 points in a high-scoring affair in Round 3 last year, but you have to think Melbourne will turn the tables in a much more low-scoring affair this time around.
I like the Demons to cover the -10.5 point line at $1.90.
TAB ODDS: ESSENDON $2.65 MELBOURNE $1.48
Melbourne has attracted 65% of head-to-head support to beat Essendon with TAB
ADELAIDE v RICHMOND
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 5.10pm
Don’t think this will be a walk in the park for the Tigers.
The Crows pressure has the past two games has been sky-high and defensively they have been a lot stronger lately, conceding an average of just 54 points from their past four games.
In saying all that, the Tigers have a top-four spot on the line and have won their past five matches, two of those against current top-eight sides. Richmond has won just three games by more than 40 points this year, so Tigers by 1-39 points looks juicy at $1.72.
TAB ODDS: ADELAIDE $4.10 RICHMOND $1.24
Richmond has attracted 96% of head-to-head support to beat Adelaide with TAB
BRISBANE LIONS V CARLTON
Gabba, Saturday 7.40pm
A loss to Adelaide last week officially extinguished the Blues’ finals hopes, leaving them with little to play for here except sending Kade Simpson into retirement with a win.
But that won’t be easy against a Brisbane side that has found its groove the past two weeks, scoring big wins over Sydney (32 points) and Gold Coast (45 point).
The Lions have now won six straight games and I expect them to make it seven heading into finals. Take Brisbane by 1-39pts at $1.75.
TAB ODDS: BRISBANE LIONS $1.18 CARLTON $4.80
Brisbane has attracted 92% of head-to-head support to beat Carlton with TAB
HAWTHORN v GOLD COAST
Adelaide Oval, Sunday 1.05pm
Gold Coast has lost its past two games against Hawthorn by a combined 123 points, but expect them to get some revenge here.
The Suns’ second half of the season has not been as good as their first but they still put up a good fight in a 22-point loss to Collingwood last week, while the Hawks have lost seven straight matches.
TAB ODDS: HAWTHORN $2.20 GOLD COAST $1.70
Hawthorn has attracted 70% of head-to-head support to beat Gold Coast with TAB
SYDNEY v GEELONG
Metricon, Sunday 3.35pm
IF West Coast beats St Kilda on Thursday night, the pressure will be right on the Cats to win their last game and finish top-four.
After a loss to Richmond last week, Geelong will no doubt be keen to respond and it has been putting lower-ranked sides to the sword.
Consider the Cats at the -26.5 point line at $1.90.
TAB ODDS: SYDNEY $5 GEELONG $1.17
Geelong has attracted 96% of head-to-head support to beat Sydney with TAB
FREMANTLE v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Cairns, Sunday 6.10pm
SIMPLE equation for the Bulldogs.
Win and they’re in finals, but they can’t afford a slip-up.
Like last year, the Dogs have found form in the second half of the season and have won four of their past five games. They should have too much speed and scoring ability for a Dockers side which has been up and down.
TAB ODDS: FREMANTLE $2.80 W. BULLDOGS $1.44
Western Bulldogs have attracted 74% of head-to-head support to beat Fremantle with TAB
COLLINGWOOD v PORT ADELAIDE
Gabba, Monday 7.15pm
A WIN over Gold Coast on Monday means Collingwood is locked in to play finals regardless of this result, but expect the Pies to use it as a good tune-up for finals against the ladder-leader.
Collingwood has won its past two games against Port convincingly, but the Power should continue their four-match winning streak.
TAB ODDS: COLLINGWOOD $2.35 PORT ADELAIDE $1.62
Collingwood has attracted 68% of head-to-head support to beat Port Adelaide with TAB
ROUND 18 BETS OF NOTE WITH TAB
$12,000 @ $1.24 on Richmond d Adelaide
$10,000 @ $1.20 on Brisbane Lions d Carlton
$3000 @ $1.18 on Geelong d Sydney
$2300 multi @ $4.50 on Lachie NEALE (Brownlow Medal), Richmond (Premiership)
$2000 @ $7 on Port Adelaide (Premiership)
ROUND 18 TAB MARKET MOVERS
PREMIERSHIP
Richmond were $4 before Round 17 and are now $3.60
Geelong were $4.25 before Round 17 and are now $4.50
Port Adelaide were $8 before Round 17 and are now $7
West Coast were $7 before Round 17 and are now $10
Collingwood were $17 before Round 17 and are now $15
TOP 8
St Kilda were $1.08 before Round 17 and are now $1.11
Western Bulldogs were $1.65 before Round 17 and are now $1.12
Melbourne were $6 before Round 17 and are now $3.50
GWS were $1.70 before Round 17 and are now $11
TOP 4
Geelong were $1.07 before Round 17 and are now $1.12
Richmond were $1.35 before Round 17 and are now $1.15
West Coast were $2.75 before Round 17 and are now $3
BROWNLOW MEDAL
Lachie Neale remains $1.25 favourite
Travis Boak remains $8
Christian Petracca remains $9
RISING STAR
Caleb Serong was $2.25 before Round 16 and is now $1.60
Noah Anderson was $4 before Round 16 and is now $3.50
Izak Rankine was $4 before Round 16 and is now $10
Max King was $7 before Round 16 and is now $15
Matt Rowell was $26 before Round 16 and is now $15
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Originally published as Tipping guru Chris Cavanagh identifies the best bets from TAB in Round 18