The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Sydney’s current group, its future and everything in between
The Swans loaded up in the traded period and the salary cap will be tight next year and beyond – so what does it mean for a few out-of-contract young guns? Jon Ralph takes a look.
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Life after Lance Franklin is not a prospect to be feared any more for Sydney.
The superstar forward was for so long such a dominant matchwinner it was hard to see how anyone could emerge from his shadow.
Yet after Franklin played on for one more year — still kicking multiple goals in eight games but only 19 in total in 13 matches — what comes next is truly fascinating.
Sydney fixed its clearance issues through the trade period, has a next-generation star in Errol Gulden and has elite crumbers to go with the quartet of key forwards who will attempt to replace Franklin.
They might not be at the very pointy end of the challenging pack, but they are superbly coached, they maximise their talent and after six wins on the bounce to clinch a finals berth they lost by only six points in the elimination final to a white-hot Carlton.
So yes, they have question marks and have to prove their trade acquisitions can provide instant impact.
But if Sydney was a stock, you would be investing heavily.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 8.5/10
Smack, bang, wallop.
Sydney needed a ruckman, an inside beast, some midfield depth and some defensive cover and they got all four in the early days of the trade period.
Brodie Grundy arrives for pick 46 and Sydney’s future second-rounder (it should eventually be in the 30s), with the Swans only on the hook for $650,000 a year and the ex-Pie only 30 in April.
We now know what he is not — don’t let him anywhere near the forward 50 — but no wonder Sydney fell in love with him.
With Gawn out with a knee in round 4, Grundy went off against Sydney with 144 ranking points, 21 possessions, 25 hit-outs (10 to advantage), two score assists, nine score involvements and four clearances.
His next fortnight was just as good, then Gawn returned and back Grundy went to the forward line.
Taylor Adams also arrives (for pick 33) with a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove, having averaged seven clearances a game two years ago.
Who cares if he approached Sydney instead of the other way around?
That is what good managers do to find their players landing spots where they can thrive.
Grundy and Adams instantly improve a team low on clearances that saw only Luke Parker averaging over five clearances last year (5.7), ahead of James Rowbottom (4.7), Chad Warner (4.5), ruckman Peter Ladhams (4.1) and Errol Gulden (3.8).
Free agency acquisition James Jordan adds depth but has never been a centre bounce mid and don’t be surprised if fellow free agent Joel Hamling plays 15-plus games in the backline as a replacement for Paddy McCartin.
LIST HOLES
Sydney’s kids aren’t just on the march, they are on the charge.
Gulden should set his sights on the Brownlow Medal after winning the Bob Skilton Medal by an astonishing 257 votes (783 to second-placed Nick Blakey’s 481).
Blakey took a huge step forward himself, while Chad Warner finished only fifth in the Skilton Medal but was actually slightly up across the board in all his key metrics.
He just found himself in Gulden’s shadow.
What have you got for us now, Chad?
Paddy McCartin’s loss to concussion-based issues is a blow, but brother Tom remains the centrepiece of a defence that includes Blakey, 33-year-old Dane Rampe, Lewis Melican, Jake Lloyd and Robbie Fox.
The clear question mark is whether the Swans can find an A-grader to replace Franklin.
Pick four Logan McDonald kicked 32 goals in his third year.
Some around him felt he played better when Franklin wasn’t hogging the inside-50 entries — now he has his chance to prove it.
Amid continuing hamstring issues, Joel Amartey’s best is top shelf — four-goal bags against West Coast, Essendon and Hawthorn but also six goalless games.
Hayden McLean’s final against Carlton was exceptional playing ruck and forward, but with Grundy to take most of the centre square opportunities can he be a forward threat after 21 goals in 22 games this year?
And then there is Peter Ladhams, who didn’t get back into the seniors after a serious ankle issue (he played five late VFL games) and must show he can be a forward threat if he is to play seniors.
So as Tom Papley, Isaac Heeney and Will Hayward buzz around at their feet, can John Longmire assemble an elite forward line from the sum of those parts?
The answer is an unequivocal yes.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Sydney put Sam Reid onto the rookie list to give it flexibility as it takes picks 12, 45 and 55 into the national draft.
It means list boss Kinnear Beatson and recruiting boss Simon Dalrymple can take a third player if someone is still on their board at that pick or save another list spot for a summer rookie or mid-season pick
The last pick — 55 — should come in by six or eight spots by the time earlier picks stockpiled for academy and father-son players are absorbed.
With Paddy McCartin retired and Rampe 33, the Swans could consider a young key back, with Tasmanian 187cm defender James Leake set to be taken around that pick and fellow Tasmanian 194cm defender Arie Schoenmaker in the late teens or early 20s.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Callum Mills.
The Sydney co-captain might be back mid-season after his Mad Monday escapades which forced shoulder surgery.
Until then he will be in the doghouse after his freakish accident while wrestling a teammate. Mills proposed to long-time partner Tiffany Browne this week so at least can distract himself with wedding preparations.
CAP SPACE
The nature of footy is that as soon as one superstar is off your books you need to pay for another.
Sydney finally had some cap space to secure its quartet of trade priorities and would have paid well over $1.5 million a year of its salary cap to do just that given Grundy is on $650,000 and none of the remaining trio would have come for less than $300,000.
Nick Blakey has just signed on until 2031 and Errol Gulden will surely follow within months on a deal that deserves to hit a million a year.
So in a town where cap space is always tight, don’t expect anything to change.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Sydney is always a contender. It is why they are so admired among their peers.
Rampe is 33, Luke Parker 31, Adams and Jake Lloyd 30.
But this is a young vibrant list that should be in the window for some time yet.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS TOP 100 FOR 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER
Errol Gulden (11th), Chad Warner (24th), Nick Blakey (45th), Luke Parker (60th), Isaac Heeney (76th), Tom McCartin (92nd), Tom Papley (96th).
Brodie Grundy was the 134th-ranked player this year. If he is top-20 next year the Swans might just make the Grand Final.
TRADE BAIT
Logan McDonald has already been heavily linked to Fremantle in a move that will only drive his price up.
But he would be crazy to head to the Dockers — who have cap space and three first-rounders — given they already have Jye Amiss and hybrid ruck-forward-mid Luke Jackson as well as the emerging Josh Treacy.
It would be much better to back himself on a two-year extension or even four-year deal to free agency when he can cash in as a regular 50-goal-a-year man.
Sydney believes he’s a loyal and popular teammate who will be keen to stay, and if the midfield can provide him with silver service there is no reason he can’t kick 50 goals in 2024.
Ollie Florent will be the priority free agency signing, while Will Hayward is also a 2024 free agent.
The Swans will also want to tuck away James Rowbottom early.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2025
The Swans were keen on Ben McKay, Tom Doedee, Harry Himmelberg and Tom De Koning but might have used up their cap space on their quartet of incoming players.
Drafting a key back instead of trying to poach one might be a cheaper option, especially if Hamling can dodge injuries and give 50 games of solid service.
If Nick Haynes remains out of the GWS side in 2024 and Sydney is again exposed defensively would the Swans ask the question for 2025 with his fat back-ended contract finally finishing?
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