The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Geelong’s current group, its future and everything in between
Geelong will go into the pre-season with five premiership heroes entering their free agency year, and all of them ‘will have strong interest elswhere’. FULL CATS LIST ANALYSIS here.
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Geelong just doesn’t fly under the radar.
It never goes under-appreciated.
But after the club’s premiership defence ended with a whimper this season, no one has grand aspirations for Geelong.
Maybe the Cats — perennial contenders for so many years — are subject to the same challenges every other side must face when the stars age and the early draft picks are yet to mature.
Geelong will go into 2024 with 11 players 30-plus and, while the Cats won a flag with very similar numbers, there must come a time when we get diminishing returns from Patrick Dangerfield (34 in April) and Tom Hawkins (35).
Chris Scott won’t be buying that narrative.
Not when he has exciting kids like 21-year-olds Max Holmes, Ollie Henry and Tanner Bruhn, plus 22-year-old Sam De Koning, 19-year-old Jhye Clarke and 20-year-old Toby Conway.
He could also point to the club’s unavailability issues this year.
Dangerfield missed five games and Jeremy Cameron went from footy’s most dangerous player to badly banged up.
Hawkins struggled early after off-season surgery, Cam Guthrie played six games, Mitch Duncan only 16, Tyson Stengle’s broken arm curtailed his influence and Jack Henry managed only 11 games with continuing foot injuries.
So the Cats are in uncharted waters — not exactly written off, but not among the top-eight contenders.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 5/10
The Cats had interest in Tom De Koning, but he stayed at Carlton.
They sniffed around Essendon free agent Darcy Parish, but he re-signed.
They kicked the tyres of Fremantle pre-agent Sean Darcy but never committed and might have had interest if the Dogs had shown they were some chance to trade Bailey Smith.
If Brandon Parfitt had a strong suitor he might have left but he will instead honour his contract.
So in the end a club which had cap space and a top-10 draft pick held ground, trading away Esava Ratugolea and getting back 25 and two late picks — 76 and 94.
It is an indication that Geelong knows it has list holes — a ruckman, a pure inside mid — but is not prepared to pay funny money to secure them given the potential on its list.
LIST HOLES
Geelong’s best and fairest results in a season with 10 and a half victories indicate the lack of stars dominating big games in 2023.
Tom Atkins (second), Gryan Miers (third), Zach Guthrie (fourth), and Brad Close (seventh) all recording high best-and-fairest places is a credit to the club’s development, but showed the stars too often didn’t come out to shine.
So Geelong remains well-coached and with an elite development program but arguably starts the 2024 season with less pure talent than the top handful of contenders including Carlton, Brisbane and Collingwood.
The 11 players who are 30-plus are Hawkins, Zach Tuohy, Dangerfield, Rhys Stanley, Mark Blicavs, Gary Rohan, Duncan, Cam Guthrie, Tom Stewart, Cameron and Jed Bews.
Right at the other end of the list are potential A graders — Holmes could be anything, Ollie Henry kicked 41 goals this year, pick 8 Clark played 20 minutes of senior footy then hurt his navicular, De Koning is a freak but had horrid luck with injury.
Then there’s Conway, a beanpole ruckman who smacks of a young Brad Ottens.
You could argue the middle tier between the under-22s and plus 30s is thinner than in competing teams.
It includes Miers (24), Stengle (25), Close (25), Zach Guthrie (25), Parfitt (25), Jack Bowes (25) and Mark O’Connor (26).
There are plenty of elite role players and an All-Australian in Stengle, but are there enough A graders to return to premiership glory?
Finally come the kids Geelong is keen to force-feed games into — 193cm key forward Shannon Neale, wingman Mitch Knevitt, 187cm forward Ollie Dempsey and 20-year old mid James Wills.
So it is a list with heaps of promise and significant upside.
It is also one that might need 12 months of development before Geelong’s investment in the kids reaps rewards.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Expect Ollie Dempsey to be elevated to the primary list, which will give the club another rookie-list spot either for a summer train-on player or the actual rookie draft.
Geelong has picks 8 and 25 and is very happy to make selections in that area of the draft.
It has had conversations about trading away pick 8 but would surely need multiple picks in the teens to consider giving that away.
The Cats will consider offers on the night — likely making a decision only in the minutes before their selection when they see which players are still on the board at pick 8.
Geelong held out for two late picks in the Ratugolea trade and have 76, 87, 94, being happy to take up to four total selections as well as a rookie.
The Cats have been linked to hard-running Murray Bushrangers wingman Darcy Wilson and Northern Knights 193cm forward Nate Caddy.
Both fit areas of need.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Jack Bowes had a solid first year after the Cats accepted his salary and pick 7 from the Suns. Now with three more years on a deal converted into a $400,000-a-season contract, can he prove the doubters wrong?
He was only solid — 17 games, an average of 61 ranking points and 15 possessions.
He is only 25 but rated average or below average in five of seven key Champion Data indicators.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2025
The Cats have brought in enough elite talent (Holmes, Clarke, Ollie Henry, De Koning, Conway) to launch again in the free agency or trade space.
They are huge admirers of Bailey Smith, but how much would rivals give up for him if he has another so-so season (a third in a row) and the Dogs still demand multiple early picks to secure him next October?
He will need to improve his kicking and ability to have an influence as a high half forward before anyone throws the kitchen sink at him.
Geelong does need an Ollie Wines-style midfielder, but will hope Clarke shows enough to prove he will eventually be that player.
Having already taken a chance on Stengle, surely the Cats would be one of a dozen clubs monitoring the status of Tarryn Thomas.
Equally comfortable winning centre square clearances or kicking goals as an isolated deep forward, someone (the Roos or a rival) will pay him vast sums if he can stay out of trouble in 2024.
TRADE BAIT
Brandon Parfitt has a year to run on his deal and couldn’t make an impact, at least finishing the year with eight clearances and 26 touches against the Dogs.
Parfitt, Jack Henry, O’Connor, Stengle and Zach Guthrie are all free agents who will have strong interest elsewhere.
Tom Stewart’s deal will be done with a minimum of fuss but as he turns 31 in March, so at what price?
He is footy’s best defender. Rivals would pay the free agent $1.4 million a year on the open market.
He will stay, but does it take a 20 per cent cut for loyalty? 30 per cent? 40 per cent?
It’s an interesting question for his manager Tom Petroro and Cats footy boss Andrew Mackie.
CAP SPACE
Geelong missed on Jacob Hopper last year, then Parish and TDK this year.
So they are in an excellent spot to launch at someone.
Jeremy Cameron is a million-dollar-a-year player but the Cats don’t have anyone else close to him in a comp where Richmond will pay three players seven-figure salaries next year.
So look out rivals — the Cats have picks, cash and the inclination to get dangerous again.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Who would be surprised if Geelong peeled off an early run of wins to set up yet another surprise run at the title?
But if they can’t, Hawkins is no certainty to play on in 2025 and Dangerfield will be in his football dotage.
Unless they instantly restock with ready-mades, the Cats might need to take half a step back before their window opens again.
TOP 100 IN AFL PLAYER RATINGS FOR 2023. AND A 2024 BOLTER
Tom Atkins (pick 59), Patrick Dangerfield (70th), Tom Stewart (80th), Tom Hawkins (80th).
Can Max Holmes (117th) tidy up his kick rating of below average to climb into the top-50, given Champion Data rates his contested possessions, clearances and pressure as elite?
Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Geelong’s current group, its future and everything in between
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