The AFL anointed Essendon in May, now footy fans are set to pay the price in the run to September

Two days after finalising its 2025 fixture, the AFL had a serious problems on its hands. The NFL would know what to do with the oversaturation of the Bombers, should the league follow suit?

When the AFL released the final part of the fixture on May 15, Essendon was sitting in ninth position on the ladder, one spot ahead of Carlton.

Two days later the Bombers were beaten by 91 points by the Western Bulldogs and the AFL had themselves a New York Jets problem.

Essendon has only won one game since the Round 16-23 fixture was revealed where they were surprisingly anointed as one of the four “primetime” teams.

For better or worse, you’ll be seeing a lot of the Bombers before the season ends. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

The high-scoring Bulldogs were given five Thursday/Friday nights during that time, fellow premiership aspirant the GWS Giants got four and then the league wrongly went back to their default position of two traditional large fan base clubs in Essendon and Carlton.

And with the fixture debacle around the Essendon-Gold Coast cyclone missed game at the start of the year, another one will get added to that tally for the Bombers and Blues who will play each other on a Thursday night in Round 24.

It’s a move which one TV industry expert described as “killing” Thursday night football.

In 2023 the NFL put all its chips into legendary quarterback Aaron Rodgers moving to the New York Jets and had them in all of the primetime spots - Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday night - to start the season.

Four snaps into the 2023 season Rodgers blew out his achilles and the Jets became instantly unwatchable.

In 2024 the NFL decided to take a similar risk with Rodgers’ return. Within two months the Jets were being “flexed” off the schedule as the veteran struggled and interest waned.

The NFL only needs three weeks to move the timing of a game in their flexible scheduling which they say is “designed to promote quality match-ups and give surprise teams a chance to play their way onto primetime”.

Unfortunately, the AFL refuses to embrace such a mantra, instead hiding behind the out-dated notion that fans plan to come to matches months ahead of time and any change is too upsetting for them to deal with.

There are other factors at play including the limited number of five-day breaks the AFL Players’ Association has approved which hampers scheduling.

Over the final six weeks of the season there will be only one round (Round 21) where Thursday and Friday night will be an Essendon and Carlton free zone.

That’s a disaster which Essendon people put their hands up and say wasn’t of their doing.

“I think it was realistic to think that Carlton would be in the eight at the start of the season, I don’t think it was in anyone’s view that Essendon would be,” one Bombers’ official observed.

What has happened to Brad Scott’s team since is almost so bad that it’s an easy sell to their supporters.

Almost half of the Essendon team who defeated Sydney in Round 9 - the weekend before the fixture release - won’t be at Marvel Stadium to play the Giants tonight.

They currently have 15 players on the injury list and will debut Liam McMahon on Thursday night, a record equalling 13th debutant for the season matching Fitzroy back in 1991.

Four players who will play against the Giants weren’t even on the club’s list when the end-of-season fixture was released two months ago. The Bombers have 47 players on their list and only five haven’t played a senior game this season.

No matter how you dress that up, it’s carnage. Some of it is bad luck, some bad management with a review of the high performance department currently being undertaken by CEO Craig Vozzo.

There will be changes which stem from that because clearly there are issues with the systems currently in place around fitness and injury rehabilitation which are below AFL standard.

Will Setterfield and Nic Martin’s seasons were ended last week in the loss to Richmond. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

But unlike Carlton, there’s no urgency about this crisis in terms of heads must roll. There is a belief internally that the members and fans understand the situation and the united front which is being portrayed in the face of extreme adversity.

“The difference is at Carlton they’ve got a new president and a new CEO, so it’s different and change is more likely,” one rival club administrator observed.

“Essendon have got a CEO who has been there just over two-and-a-half years, a coach who has been there just over two-and-a-half years and a president who has been there two-and-a-half years.

“And the president has already been re-elected, the coach has been extended and the CEO is locked in. That doesn’t mean it’s going to lead to better results but it’s different (to Carlton).

“It’s not as if Scott is going to get the sack and while members would be annoyed at losing there is a sense they understand what the Bombers are doing which is different from the past.

“There is no doubt there has been mixed messaging coming out of Essendon too much previously with some saying the list is potentially very good while others say it isn’t.”

That has clearly been the issue at Carlton. After Michael Voss’ dream second-season run to the preliminary final in 2023, there has been an expectation that they had a premiership-winning game style and list.

The reality has turned out to be far different and the fall-out is expected to be brutal once incoming CEO Graham Wright gets his feet behind the desk.

While you can look back at Essendon’s drafting woes - and there have been plenty - and try and dissect whether Scott’s game plan is going to stand up to be a finals model, the issue is you can’t even really do that over the next six weeks.

With so many players missing, getting a healthy 23 to take the field is taking up more time than implementing a playing style or brand which will be recognisable in the future.

At least Essendon fans will get the chance to watch how they go at it in primetime. Whether anyone else tunes in? Well, we know what happened to the Jets.

Originally published as The AFL anointed Essendon in May, now footy fans are set to pay the price in the run to September