Round 22’s two top-four blockbusters have been more than a year in the making
How do you plan for a game as a coach when you haven’t played a team in more than a year? Mick McGuane examines the hotly-anticipated top-four clashes and the match-ups which could decide both.
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A week is a long time in footy, but just imagine what changes can take place when opponents haven’t met in more than a year.
That’s the bizarre scenario in the two most anticipated matches this week.
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It’s first versus second between Geelong and Brisbane at the Gabba and third versus fourth between West Coast and Richmond at the MCG.
Can you believe the Cats haven’t played the rejuvenated Lions since Round 19 last year — 385 days ago.
Go 455 days back — to Round 9, 2018 — for the last time the Tigers took on the Eagles.
That’s a weird quirk of the AFL fixture.
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Planning for these all-important games, it’s fair to say the coaches won’t be pinning too much faith on what happened last time the teams met.
There have been significant changes in personnel, form and, to a degree, playing style since.
Re-examining those games and uncovers a few areas of concern for the best four flag chances this year.
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Brisbane v Geelong, Gabba
Saturday, 2.10pm
If someone had told you at the start of the year the Lions would be playing off for top spot in Round 22, you would have questioned their sanity.
But what Chris Fagan — coach of the year in my view — and his players and staff have produced in a short time is remarkable.
Is it any wonder the “full house” sign is up at the Gabba.
Tomorrow will be the first time in nine years since a crowd of 30,000-plus has attended a Lions-Cats game at the venue. The local support will be a huge advantage.
Both teams play a similar style, aiming to control the ball and be strong, contested ball-winning outfits.
Geelong dominated last time these teams met — a seven-goal win at GMHBA Stadium — with Tom Hawkins booting seven goals and having eight inside 50 marks.
Hawkins did a number on Harris Andrews, but the Lions defender is now much stronger.
He will have to defend back shoulder against Hawkins and be conscious of not allowing any lead up marks.
The Cats scored 66 points from their defensive half in that game — their most all season — but don’t expect that to happen tomorrow.
The Lions have a far better organised defensive structure this time.
Geelong was a high play-on team last year, which is different to their 2019 ball movement.
There is no Dayne Beams, who had 37 disposals (14 contested) for the Lions last year. But Lachie Neale is the ideal replacement.
To see Neale against Patrick Dangerfield, Tim Kelly, Joel Selwood and Brandan Parfitt will be compelling.
Gary Ablett was still a midfielder last year, having 38 disposals in that Round 19, 2018 clash. He will be playing a high half forward role this week.
Charlie Cameron didn’t play in the corresponding game and will pose a threat to Jed Bews and Zach Tuohy.
Former Cats Allen Christensen and Lincoln McCarthy will be hoping to cause some havoc, too.
The dilemma for Chris Scott is where to use Mr Fixit, Mark Blicavs. He’s a star defender, but showed last week how important he can be in the ruck.
I’d have him back in defence this week, on Eric Hipwood, leaving Harry Taylor for Oscar McInerney and Lachie Henderson for Daniel McStay.
Rhys Stanley has to somehow square the ledger with Stefan Martin, along with help from Esava Ratugolea.
The Lions have won eight games in a row, and make no mistake, they CAN win the flag.
The next two weeks could provide further legitimacy — against Geelong and Richmond ahead of the finals.
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Richmond v West Coast, MCG
Sunday, 1.10pm
David Astbury and the Tigers have been waiting for this game for a long time.
The Richmond defender had a horror time against the Eagles in Round 9 last year, having seven goals kicked on him by Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy.
He started on Darling, then forces to shift on to Kennedy, with Alex Rance coming in to support him.
There is no back-up from Rance on Sunday, but Astbury will hoping Dylan Grimes, Nathan Broad, Bachar Houli and Nick Vlastuin can assist.
Astbury and others will have sleepless nights. The Eagles forward line of Darling, Kennedy, Oscar Allen as well as Liam Ryan, Willie Rioli, Jamie Cripps and Jack Petruccelle looks imposing.
Richmond was smashed against West Coast in Perth last year, with the Eagles scoring 130 points, the most the Tigers have conceded in two years.
Surely, Adam Simpson's team can't be as efficient this time. Incredibly, they had only 45 entries for those 130 points.
Richmond’s defence has tightened since its Round 13 loss to Adelaide. They haven't had more than 70 points kicked against them since then.
Keep the Eagles to 70, and they’ll win.
As a footy fan, I’d love to see Elliot Yeo head-to-head with Dustin Martin. But if I were Simmo, I wouldn’t let it happen.
Mark Hutchings kept Martin to 26 last time — 17 contested — and I’d expect him to go with Dusty between the arcs before handing over to Shannon Hurn.
Trent Cotchin’s absence is huge.
So the onus is on Dion Prestia, Jack Graham (who might take Yeo), Kane Lambert and Shane Edwards to bring their “A” game to limit the influence of Andrew Gaff, Luke Shuey, Jack Redden and Yeo.
I’m excited to see how the twin towers of Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt (five goals against the Eagles last time) perform on Tom Barrass and Will Schofield, with Jeremy McGovern being that roll-off defender to assist.
Remember this time last year many were questioning if the Eagles could win consistently at the MCG.
That, too, seems an eternity ago.
Originally published as Round 22’s two top-four blockbusters have been more than a year in the making
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