Run to the finals: What do Round 20 results mean for your team?
UPDATE: ROUND 20 turned the race for the top four, and top eight, on its head. How is your club placed with three weeks to go in the closest season in memory?
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ROUND 20 turned the race for the top four, and top eight, on its head.
Richmond, GWS and Adelaide were the big winners at the top end of the ladder while Port Adelaide, Melbourne and West Coast took huge hits.
The Tigers could host a qualifying final at the MCG in the first week of September and incredibly the Cats haven’t locked away a finals berth.
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Meanwhile, the Bombers and Bulldogs were both staring at 2018 mortality but rallied to keep their top eight hopes alive.
Scroll down to see what Round 20 results mean for your team, and a preview of what’s to come in the closest season in memory.
1. ADELAIDE 58pts, 141.5%
R21: Essendon (ES)
R22: Sydney (AO)
R23: West Coast (S)
Our prediction: Demolished Port Adelaide in a brutal Showdown smackdown, registering an astonishing 81 inside-50s. One more win should lock away top spot.
2. GWS GIANTS 52pts, 115.3%
R21: Western Bulldogs (ES)
R22: West Coast (SPO)
R23: Geelong (SS)
Our prediction: Did the Demons play them back into form? Bad news for the rest of the comp. Have a tricky run home but on Saturday’s form they could win all three. Lose one or two and they could be playing at the MCG in the first week of the finals. Friday night is huge.
3. RICHMOND 52pts, 112.0%
R21: Geelong (SS)
R22: Fremantle (S)
R23: St Kilda (MCG)
Our prediction: Can Tiger fans dare to dream of an home qualifying final? Beat the Cats on Saturday and it’s possible given the Giants’ tough run home. That’s a huge ask travelling to Simonds Stadium but Jack Riewoldt will be back. Whatever happens they can’t miss the finals and could drop two more games and still make top four if other results go their way. Amazing effort given where they were this time last year.
4. GEELONG 50pts, 115.1%
R21: Richmond (SS)
R22: Collingwood (MCG)
R23: GWS Giants (SS)
Our prediction: Disastrous weekend, losing meekly to the Swans at home and losing Joel Selwood for at least the rest of the home-and-away season. Patrick Dangerfield is back next week and they will need him against the surging Tigers. The Cats have won 12 in a row against Richmond but Collingwood has won its past three against the Cats and the Giants are suddenly looking scary. One more win should secure the double chance.
5. PORT ADELAIDE 44pts, 122.5%
R21: Collingwood (AO)
R22: Western Bulldogs (EU)
R23: Gold Coast (AO)
Our prediction: The Showdown couldn’t have gone any worse. Fell a game-and-a-half behind fourth-placed Geelong and even had eight points knocked off their huge percentage. Would need to win all three to pinch the double chance but focus is more on getting a home elimination final by winning two of their remaining games.
6. SYDNEY 44pts, 117.2%
R21: Fremantle (SCG)
R22: Adelaide (AO)
R23: Carlton (SCG)
Our prediction: Home, sweet home for the finals and could snare fourth with a win against Adelaide. Would have been high-fiving after Richmond knocked nemesis Hawthorn out of the finals race. Hard to believe the Swans were 0-6.
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS 44pts, 101.1%
R21: GWS Giants (ES)
R22: Port Adelaide (EU)
R23: Hawthorn (ES)
Our prediction: Back in the eight after four wins on the trot, but three of those were against Carlton, Gold Coast and Brisbane (just). Now it gets serious. Given their percentage the Dogs must win two more to keep the flag defence alive. The first game for premiership points in Ballarat will be a cracker.
8. ESSENDON 40pts, 107.3%
R21: Adelaide (ES)
R22: Gold Coast (MS)
R23: Fremantle (ES)
Our prediction: Top rung over the teams on 10 wins thanks to a strong percentage. In the box seat if none of those four sides can win all three of their remaining games, and a win against the Crows would make it very hard for anyone else to get in.
9. WEST COAST 40pts, 105.0%
R21: Carlton (S)
R22: GWS Giants (SPO)
R23: Adelaide (S)
Our prediction: Adam Simpson says there is “still a pulse” in the Eagles season but while they are likely to stay alive with a win against Carlton, the last two make it very tough. Best hope is smashing the Blues by enough to get past Essendon on percentage, win one of their last two games and hope no other team on 10 wins goes through the rest of the year undefeated.
10. MELBOURNE 40pts, 104.8%
R21: St Kilda (MCG)
R22: Brisbane Lions (MCG)
R23: Collingwood (MCG)
Our prediction: Just two wins from their past five starts but not out of it based on a relatively friendly fixture. Need to beat St Kilda then account for the Lions, setting up what would be a massive final-round against Collingwood. On form, hard to see it happening but this year, you don’t discount anything.
11. ST KILDA 36pts 96.7%
R21: Melbourne (MCG)
R22: North Melbourne (ES)
R23: Richmond (MCG)
Our prediction: Fantastic win yesterday keeps the finals flame burning — just. Clash against the Demons is an elimination final and if they can win that, the Saints are back in it. But ordinary percentage means they would have to knock off the Tigers in the final round which sounds unlikely ... until you remember the last time they met.
13. HAWTHORN 34pts, 87.8%
R21: North Melbourne (US)
R22: Carlton (ES)
R23: Western Bulldogs (ES)
Our prediction: Gone. Still, it was fun while it lasted — and a great platform for next season.
TAB FLAG ODDS
Adelaide $3.50
Sydney $4.50
GWS $4.50
Geelong $7.50
Richmond $9
Port Adelaide $11
Western Bulldogs $17
Essendon $41
Melbourne $81
St Kilda $81
West Coast $81
Hawthorn $501
Collingwood $501
Originally published as Run to the finals: What do Round 20 results mean for your team?
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