Jon Ralph predicts how week one of the finals will look, with three games to be played in Melbourne

Is Richmond destined for a qualifying final at the MCG? Could Collingwood and Essendon clash two weeks in a row? Jon Ralph answers the big questions about the top eight with four rounds remaining.

Marcus Bontempelli and Western Bulldogs are charging toward a finals berth. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

With four rounds to go every spot in the top eight can change hands as teams jostle for the double chance and Western Bulldogs look to punt Adelaide from the finals.

JON RALPH predicts how the ladder will finish.

1. GEELONG

Rd 20 v Fremantle (PS)

Rd 21 v Nth Melb (GMHBA)

Rd 22 v Bris Lions (Gabba)

Rd 23 v Carlton (GMHBA)

17 wins

Great percentage helps. Cats can probably afford to drop only one more game (they take on Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 22) if they want to finish on top. Two GMHBA games a huge help.

2. RICHMOND

Rd 20 v Melbourne (MCG)

Rd 21v Carlton (MCG)

Rd 22 v West Coast (MCG)

Rd 23 v Bris Lions (MCG)

16 wins

If it wins out, beating West Coast and Brisbane at the MCG, it needs only to gain seven percentage points to snare second spot. Given it has won the past five matches by an average margin of 44 points, that is a real likelihood. But both West Coast and Brisbane travel spectacularly well.

Geelong is in the box seat to finish on top of the ladder with four rounds left. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images.

3. WEST COAST

Rd 20 v Carlton (MS)

Rd 21 Adelaide (PS)

Rd 22 v Richmond (MCG)

Rd 22 v Hawthorn (PS)

16 wins

No easy wins in the last four. But if they can get home in three of those four they will race Richmond and the Lions for that home final on percentage alone. Win out and they still need to boost percentage to ensure they finish second ahead of Brisbane.

Fairytale story Brisbane Lions are primed to secure a top-four finish. Picture: AAP Image/Julian Smith.

4. BRISBANE LIONS

Rd 20 v W Bulldogs (Gabba)

Rd 21 v Gold Coast (Gabba)

Rd 22 v Geelong (Gabba)

Rd 23 v Richmond (MCG)

16 wins

Every chance to finish with the Eagles and Richmond locked on 16 wins. Can they win out and leapfrog the Eagles? Will come down to Richmond in Round 23. Three Gabba games their secret weapon.

5. GWS GIANTS

Rd 20 v Sydney (GS)

Rd 21v Hawthorn (Canberra)

Rd 22 v W Bulldogs (GS)

Rd 23 v Gold Coast (MS)

15 wins

Can get to 15 victories if they win out, then need only one of the Tigers or Brisbane to trip over and their superior percentage gets them into the top four. Play three at home and the other against Gold Coast, which helps.

Are Tom Lynch and the Tigers premiership favourites? Picture: AAP

6. ESSENDON

Rd 20 v Port Adelaide (Marvel)

Rd 21 v W Bulldogs (Marvel)

Rd 22 v Fremantle (PS)

Rd 23 v Collingwood (MCG)

14 wins

Will get to 14 wins even if they drop another game in the run home. Round 23 against Collingwood shapes as their chance to leapfrog the Pies and secure a home final. But with the Dogs, Freo away and the Pies in their final three, it’s no easy run home.

7. COLLINGWOOD

Rd 20 v Gold Coast (MCG)

Rd 21 v Melbourne (MCG)

Rd 22 v Adelaide (AO)

Rd 23 v Essendon (MCG)

13 wins

Will start favourite against Gold Coast and Melbourne but with their injury list who knows? Likely playing Essendon in Round 23 for a home final. The only positive is the challengers behind them all lost this weekend.

Marcus Bontempelli and Western Bulldogs are charging toward a finals berth. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Rd 20 v Bris Lions (Gabba)

Rd 21 v Essendon (Marvel)

Rd 22 v GWS Giants (GS)

Rd 23 v Adelaide (Ballarat)

12 wins

It’s a raffle. Adelaide and Port Adelaide (nine wins) are in free fall despite better percentages. Hawthorn has GWS and West Coast away. The Dogs would need to knock over the Lions at the Gabba and GWS away, but at least their formline stacks up. On form it’s the Dogs or Hawthorn.

WEEK ONE FINALS

Geelong v Brisbane Lions

Richmond v West Coast

GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs

Essendon v Collingwood

THE REST

Mathematically even the Blues could fall into the eight, with every contender from 7th-13th facing tough fixtures. Who can catch fire and win their last four to surge late and face a likely away final against GWS, Richmond or Brisbane?

Originally published as Jon Ralph predicts how week one of the finals will look, with three games to be played in Melbourne