Gary Buckenara analyses Hawthorn’s list after the 2019 season
Hawthorn will bounce back after a disappointing season this year but can they improve enough to be a premiership contender? List guru Gary Buckenara analyses the Hawks’ list and why Jon Patton will be an important recruit.
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Hawthorn will be back in finals contention next year.
The Hawks were unlucky to miss finals this year — they were playing their best footy heading into September. There were mitigating circumstances for the drop from top four to ninth from 2018-19, with the loss of Brownlow Medallist Tom Mitchell to a broken leg before the start of the season a massive blow, while key players including James Frawley, Chad Wingard and Jarman had injury-interrupted years.
The silver lining was those injuries gave James Worpel, Tim O’Brien, Mitchell Lewis, Jack Scrimshaw, Ollie Hanrahan and James Cousins more exposure to senior football and each of them proved at various stages they can be good contributors at senior level, which gives coach Alastair Clarkson more options in 2020.
The Hawthorn side of 2019 was vastly different to the team we’ve become used to over the years. No Birchall, no Luke Hodge, no Jordan Lewis, Jarryd Roughead playing VFL — there is a changing of the guard happening at Waverley Park, which is why the development and improvement shown by the guys I just mentioned is crucial. These players need to be the next wave of stars and step up to help established players like Mitchell, James Sicily, Jaeger O’Meara, Jack Gunston, Luke Breust and Ben McEvoy and form the nucleus of the club’s next premiership team.
The Hawks still have enough A and B-grade players to be competitive and push for finals next year but the development of the players aged 21 and under is going to dictate how far the team can go.
A midfield of Mitchell, Worpel, Shiels, Smith, O’Meara, Henderson, Scully and Howe as a tagging option, while Wingard and Shaun Burgoyne roll through there is going to give opposition teams some headaches.
On Wingard — he needs to put in a massive pre-season and get his body right so he can get back to his best. The Hawks gave up a lot to get him — emerging star Ryan Burton and pick Nos. 15, 35 and a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft, so there is the expectation at the club that he will produce A-grade football in brown and gold. We saw glimpses of what he can offer late in the season, the Hawks will need more of that form earlier next year.
The addition of Sam Frost from Melbourne is smart. He can play on both talls and smalls because he’s so quick and agile, so that gives the Hawks more flexibility within the defence. He’ll form part of a strong backline with Frawley, Stratton and possibly McEvoy with Sicily, Hardwick, Scrimshaw and even Henderson coming off halfback.
Getting former No.1 pick Jonathon Patton is a risk given he has done his knee three times but they got him so cheaply — for a 2020 fourth-round pick they originally got from Melbourne — that it’s definitely a risk worth taking. I think his upside is huge.
His talent is pretty much untapped because he’s had so much bad luck with injury and as we know, Hawthorn has a history of taking on players with a bad injury history, rehabilitating it themselves and getting the best out of them. Patton could be the next one.
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Patton playing alongside Lewis, Gunston, Breust and Wingard is going to be a good forward line but it’s lacking something.
LIST NEEDS
The Hawks are addressing two needs during the trade period — the need for an experienced key forward (Patton) and defender (Frost). Lewis and Nash are good young key tall forward prospects who have shown promise early in their careers but they need a bigger body there to help take some of the pressure off.
With Puopolo nearing the end of his career, there is also a need for a quick and clever small forward who can apply pressure and who’s smart around goal. It’s the missing piece to the Hawthorn forward line.
LIST BREAKDOWN
A: Tom Mitchell
B+: James Sicily, Ben McEvoy, Shaun Burgoyne, Jaeger O’Meara
B: James Frawley, Isaac Smith, Luke Breust, Liam Shiels, Ricky Henderson, Tom Scully
B-: Jarman Impey, Blake Hardwick, Jack Gunston, Ben Stratton, Chad Wingard, Jonathon Patton
C+: Daniel Howe, Jonathon Ceglar, Tim O’Brien, Paul Puopolo, Sam Frost
C: Nil
C-: Nil
Developing*: James Worpel, Mitch Lewis, Jack Scrimshaw, Ollie Hanrahan
Developing: Harry Morrison, Dylan Moore, Jackson Ross, James Cousins, Conor Nash, Mathew Walker, Jacob Koschitzke, Harrison Jones, Conor Glass, Changkuoth Jiath, Damon Greaves, Will Golds
Please note: Developing* refers to players aged 21 or under with the potential to become A or B-grade players in the future.
DRAFT STRATEGY
It has been a long time since the Hawks held onto their first-round pick and the Hawks will be hoping no bid comes for father-son prospect Finn Maginness before their first pick at No.11 so, like GWS, they can essentially bring in two top 15-20 talents by using points from later selections.. They're positioned well for the draft and definitely have enough draft points to match a bid for Maginness, who I have ranked in the top 15 players in this draft, we'll just have to wait and see how early that comes.
At this stage, I see only four players aged 21 or under with the potential to develop into A or B-grade players in the future, so adding young talent from the top end of the draft will be important over the next year or two.
CRYSTAL BALL
There is still enough talent on the list to play finals next year but I don’t think the Hawks will be a premiership contender. Clarkson is obviously a very astute coach and has been for many years, so nothing would surprise me when it comes to Hawthorn and what game style he can devise and implement over the pre-season but I believe the Hawks will be a 5-8 team in 2020.
Originally published as Gary Buckenara analyses Hawthorn’s list after the 2019 season