Geelong might crash out of finals contention because of its lack of depth, writes Jon Ralph
PATRICK Dangerfield, Gary Ablett and Joel Selwood were brilliant. But it is now clear few teams in the competition have such a chasm between their top-tier stars and their bottom six. JON RALPH looks where the Cats go from here.
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RICHMOND won a premiership by extracting star performances from players ostensibly in its bottom six.
A year later, Geelong just might crash out of finals consideration because of its soft underbelly.
Cats supporters spent their Friday bemoaning Daniel Menzel’s late dropped mark, Wylie Buzza’s hands of steel, the calamitous skill errors by foot.
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Because in the loss to Adelaide, the much-scrutinised midfield won the clearances 54-27, one of the great clearance beltings of the season.
The holy trinity of midfield stars were brilliant — Patrick Dangerfield masterful, Gary Ablett (five tackles) bounced back and Joel Selwood broke a tag to post 19 second-half disposals.
Yet what every Geelong supporter now knows is that few teams in the competition have such a chasm between their top-tier stars and their bottom six.
Against Adelaide the stats sheet made it shelling peas to identify who they were this week: Brandon Parfitt, Menzel, Sam Simpson, Jamaine Jones, Buzza and Jack Henry.
So the biggest question for coach Chris Scott is whether he has time before a potential finals campaign to build greater depth into his side.
The hot take after Geelong’s recent loss is that they might miss the finals for only the second time since 2006.
Certainly Chris Scott had all but given up on the top-four on Thursday night.
Yet look at the fixture and you realise that if they beat the Brisbane Lions, Fremantle and Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium they get to 12 wins.
Then they need only beat one of Melbourne (GMHBA), Richmond or Hawthorn to get the requisite 13 wins.
But you don’t recruit Ablett and Tim Kelly to squeeze into eighth on the ladder: you do it to win a premiership.
And a club with a 3-8 finals record since its 2011 premiership surely won’t win a flag if it has to win four finals to do it.
Geelong is stuck in the middle — with a senior core of mature players in the flag window and 14 kids who have made their AFL debuts since the start of last year.
Ablett is 34, Harry Taylor 32, Selwood 30, Tom Hawkins 30 next week, and Dangerfield, Lachie Henderson, Zach Tuohy and Zac Smith all 28-plus.
The 14 kids who have made their debuts are Buzza, Jordan Cunico, Lachie Fogarty, Zach Guthrie, Henry, Jones, Kelly, Quinton Narkle, Mark O’Connor, James Parsons, Parfitt, Esava Ratugolea, Simpson and Tom Stewart.
It is a drafting bonanza that will set up Geelong’s future, but in the meantime what does Scott do?
Menzel has to be better for the run. Taylor will surely replace Buzza next week. Henderson is ready to slot in for Henry.
When Ratugolea went down with a broken leg in Round 10 it was a hammer blow for the Cats, losing a hard-tackling, aggressive goal-a-game ruck/forward.
But he will be back by finals, with Nakia Cockatoo finally back in the VFL this weekend.
No one doubts Geelong’s best is good enough — not when it has beaten Melbourne, Port Adelaide away, Sydney away and GWS at home.
Losses to Hawthorn (one point), the Western Bulldogs (two points) and Essendon will cost the Cats a top-four spot, and thrust them into the hardest possible finals road.
Richmond last year showed it is possible to dispatch finals hoodoos, but the Tigers didn’t leave the MCG in September.
And given Geelong’s issues with its kids and its inconsistency, you can’t see it winning four finals to hold the cup aloft this year.
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Originally published as Geelong might crash out of finals contention because of its lack of depth, writes Jon Ralph