Essendon unlikely to receive first-round compensation pick for free agent Joe Daniher
Essendon faces the possibility of missing out on pick 7 in free agency compensation for Joe Daniher, or losing him for nothing if the Lions walk away from the deal — and another club is ready to pounce.
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Brisbane has made clear it is not prepared to trade for free agent Joe Daniher, adamant it will walk away and retain its two first-round picks if Essendon threatens to match its offer.
Essendon would ideally secure pick 7 as free agency compensation to smooth Daniher’s path north, but the Lions’ offer is likely to fall short of that first-round return.
It could mean Essendon would receive only an end-of-first-round compensation pick, and would consider matching the bid, trying to retain Daniher for the second straight season.
But Essendon would then potentially lose Daniher for nothing if it matched a free agency bid because he could then walk into the pre-season draft, where Sydney has the third overall pick.
Sydney remains interested in Daniher despite losing out to the Lions and would snap him up in a heartbeat.
He requested a trade to Sydney last year and despite their low-profile approach this year, the Swans continued to pitch to Daniher for his services.
It means the Dons will have to consider whether an end-of-first-round selection for Daniher is better than nothing.
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The Lions’ brilliant injury management has turned around the careers of Grant Birchall and Lincoln McCarthy, with Geelong’s Nakia Cockatoo and Daniher their next restoration projects.
Yet the Lions will have to play a delicate game of brinkmanship to secure Daniher as a free agent given Essendon’s determination to get maximum value from his loss.
The Herald Sun reported this week only guaranteed money in a contract is used to assess the free agency compensation for a departing player.
In an ideal world the Dons would secure pick 7 for Daniher and move on.
But the closest parallel is the end-of-first-round compensation handed to Brisbane when Tom Rockliff signed a four-year deal with Port Adelaide on around $650,000-$700,000 a season.
Daniher’s deal will not be dissimilar in guaranteed money — with more based on incentives — meaning it is hard to see how it would be worthy of first-round compensation immediately after Essendon’s No.6 selection.
Daniher has told some friends he would like to play more ruck at Brisbane because it frees him up to get up the ground.
But Brisbane is planning to recruit him as a key forward who they believe can play alongside Eric Hipwood and Dan McStay.
The Herald Sun understands Brisbane coach Chris Fagan has spoken to his key forwards to assure them he wants Daniher to play alongside them.
Brisbane customarily plays two rucks in Stef Martin and Oscar McInerney, so something may have to give instead of playing five key talls in the ruck and attack.
But Fagan continues to reassure his forwards they are all required in his system in 2021.
ROBBO: HOW DONS DISASTER COULD BECOME A CATASTROPHE
The most important signature at Essendon did not belong to Adam Saad.
Nor was it Joe Daniher who on Wednesday announced he wanted to play for Brisbane in 2021.
No, the culture crisis at Essendon will be laid bare if Zach Merrett — Essendon’s best player — refuses to sign a contract extension in the coming weeks.
Merrett has a year to run on his current deal.
The looming offer will be in the vicinity of five years and $800,000-$900,000 a season.
If he declines the offer and delays contract talks until the end of next season, which is footy slang for “get me outta here”, the Essendon crisis will become a full-blown catastrophe.
If it isn’t already.
And the spotlight is firmly fixed on club chief executive Xavier Campbell, football boss Dan Richardson and coach Ben Rutten.
It’s probable that only two of them survive the summer.
The Bombers are a mess. Every club is laughing at them.
Their own supporters are weeping with disillusionment and opposition fans are savouring every moment of the downfall.
For Saad, 26, and Daniher, 26, to leave, for Conor McKenna to retire at 24 and for Orazio Fantasia’s career at 25 to collapse — and he almost certainly will seek a trade in the coming weeks — it points to serious issues in the key planks of a footy club — culture, environment, leadership and direction.
New president Paul Brasher’s first agenda item is to instigate a review of the football operations.
It’s not only necessary. It’s paramount.
Culture is all about the people and Brasher must investigate how much responsibility Campbell, Richardson, Rutten and, indeed, the Essendon board, should carry for this latest exodus of players.
Those three people and the board create the culture and, without question, those three men are under pressure.
The first avenue to fixing a problem is admitting you have a problem.
There can be no spin from Brasher, no trying to paint a rosy environment, no running a protection racket.
There’s a major issue at this crumbling club and he is now responsible to investigate why.
Four players at the peak of their footy careers are gone. Why?
Little wonder the Bombers played such dysfunctional football on the field when it’s now clear there was tremendous dysfunction off it.
It was somewhat understandable when, about the end of 2015, Paddy Ryder, Jake Carlisle, Stewart Crameri, Jake Melksham and Michael Hibberd departed the club because of the insufferable drugs saga.
Players leave for a reason and there’s no drugs backdrop this time round.
CURIOUS FIGURE
Rutten is a curious figure in all this.
Make no mistake this was his team in 2020, he helped set the team culture, and it’s obvious the majority of the team did not buy in.
Why? Is it Rutten or a bigger problem?
Brasher has to find out. Brasher has to dig and discover. Maybe that’s Kevin Sheedy’s domain, if Sheedy hasn’t started digging already.
The counterpoint to all this, of course, is the Bombers will be better off without McKenna, Saad, Daniher and Fantasia because they didn’t want to be at the club anyhow.
Such simplicity of argument, however, can hide the truths.
DRAFT OFFERS HOPE
The positive is Essendon will be armed with first-round picks ahead of the national draft.
It’s possible they could be loaded for the national draft with picks 6, 7, 8, depending on trade and compensation for Saad and Daniher.
Essendon’s mighty fall is a contrast to the mighty rise at Brisbane.
It started when they recruited CEO Greg Swann, and then Chris Fagan and David Noble. Then they enticed Luke Hodge north and signed Charlie Cameron. Then Lachie Neale wanted to play with Hodgey.
Brisbane, and Carlton for that matter, is a destination club.
Essendon not so much.
The Merrett signature arguably is the most important of the past decade and probably the most important for the next decade.
DOES MERRETT STAY?
He has also privately questioned the club’s current position and direction, and who knows how tangible was the disappointment of his dumping from the leadership group for the 2020 season.
Essendon is confident he will re-sign.
But we’ve heard that before.
Right now, the Essendon community is deflated. That’s the nice way of putting it.
Think of the worst of Carton and Richmond over the past 20 years. Yep, that bad.
The club needs unity, culture and passion and you have to wonder if the spectre of James Hird will soon reveal itself.
There might be a time soon to bring him back.
SAAD STATE: DONS VOW TO STRONG ARM BLUES ON EXITING STAR
Carlton has secured Adam Saad by offering a five-season deal worth $650,000 a season despite Essendon’s last-ditch bid to secure the defender.
Essendon captain Dyson Heppell over the weekend spent time reinforcing the club’s direction and premiership potential with uncontracted defender Adam Saad.
But Carlton has been told by Saad he will move to the Blues after weeks of speculation about the half back’s future.
Essendon list boss Adrian Dodoro on Tuesday night confirmed Saad had requested a trade and said the club wanted “compelling” reward.
“We put forward a significant offer to Adam and we are disappointed in his decision to pursue a playing future elsewhere,” Dodoro said.
“Although we wish Adam all the best, he is not a free agent and therefore a suitable trade will need to be forthcoming from Carlton.
“Clearly, there is an expectation of compelling compensation for a player of Adam’s calibre.
“We will remain in contact with Adam’s management over the course of the upcoming AFL trade period.”
The Herald Sun revealed last month Saad was worried about the direction at Essendon.
The Dons had initially refused to consider his salary demands but offered a five-season deal.
The Dons would likely demand Carlton’s first-round pick at bare minimum — pick No. 7 currently — given Saad’s lockdown defence and dash out of the backline.
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The club could yet lose Saad, retired Irishman Conor McKenna, Orazio Fantasia and free agent Joe Daniher.
Essendon players are increasingly pessimistic about the chances of Daniher remaining at the football club.
Daniher is finishing off a camping trip with good mate James Stewart from Birdsville to Mount Isa and is aware the club is keen for him to make a decision so it can get on with planning for 2021.
He has told teammates he is still “50-50” about his future but given he remains noncommittal only weeks before the free agency period many believe he will now leave.
The view from teammates is that he has had a full year to consider his position and still hasn’t committed getting his body right, so a decision to break ties seems inevitable.
Brisbane is in the amazing position of having half a foot in the Grand Final with strong hopes of securing free agent Daniher, Nakia Cockatoo on the way from Geelong and two first-round picks — they own Port Adelaide’s.
Originally published as Essendon unlikely to receive first-round compensation pick for free agent Joe Daniher