SuperCoach’s great risk-reward players of 2024 assessed
SuperCoach has long been a game of calculated risk. But when does the risk outweigh the potential reward? See our expert verdicts on some of the riskiest selections of 2024.
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Many SuperCoaches swore they were done with Nat Fyfe and Elliot Yeo after the injury curse struck the pair again last year.
But as we near the first bounce of 2024, both Fyfe and Yeo are back in vogue.
Fyfe is back playing in the midfield and (touch wood) has remained fit throughout pre-season.
Ditto Yeo, who has only played 37 matches in the past four seasons.
SuperCoach is a game of calculated risk and the addition of four extra trades this year has given coaches scope to take an extra punt or two.
It could be a player with a torrid injury history like Fyfe or Yeo.
Or someone with a questionable role like Jack Macrae.
Or, as it often is, a player discounted due to a long-term injury that has significant upside like Tom Lynch.
Take the right risks and your overall rank will soar.
But get it wrong and you risk blowing up your SuperCoach campaign.
Scroll down to see our verdicts on the riskiest selections of 2024.
NAT FYFE $283,200 FWD-MID
BEST CASE: Plays about 20 games but is subbed out in a few. Starts the season averaging 80-90 and can be flipped to a fallen premium by rounds 6-7. Fyfe has only played more than 15 games once in the past six seasons.
WORST CASE: Scores 26 and gets hurt in round 1. Wait … that already happened last year. In that case, you’d need to flip him to a rookie you missed – ideally who is on the bubble.
REALISTIC CASE: Plays 12-16 games but is subbed out of 4-6 to manage his body, limiting his SuperCoach scoring. Fyfe has averaged 13 matches a year since 2018.
VERDICT: Too much risk that he’s subbed out of games or managed on a bye where you need him. Pass.
ELLIOT YEO $447,100 DEF-MID
BEST CASE: Averages 100 or more in the first five or six weeks and makes a small profit to bring you closer to trading in Daicos, Oliver or Petracca after their byes. Yeo tallied 113 and 125 in rounds 12 and 13 last year in a reminder of his scoring power.
WORST CASE: Succumbs to the injury curse which has plagued him in the first two games and you don’t make any profit. Then you’ve got to work out how to sideways a player who’s in an awkward price bracket at $447k. Many coaches who traded in Yeo midway through last year only got 1-2 matches out of him.
REALISTIC CASE: Plays 10-16 games as a midfielder/halfback, averaging 95-105 when fit. It’s just whether you are willing to take the punt he stays fit for the first two months of 2024.
VERDICT: Big risk because he hasn’t got through more than 12 games since 2019. But if you think he can make 100k in five weeks and get you to Nick Daicos post-bye, go for it. Just don’t expect it to be a long-term play.
TOM LYNCH $287,300 FWD
BEST CASE: Kicks 3-4 bags in the opening weeks as makes a quick $150k-200k as he did from rounds 4-10 of the 2022 season. If he got to $450k+, you could use Lynch as a bargaining chip to grab a premium when Richmond has the round 6 bye.
WORST CASE: Starts slowly after a limited pre-season and his ‘spike game’ which starts Lynch’s cash generation doesn’t come until after the round 6 bye. Again looking at 2022, Lynch started at $381k and lost value before a score of 167 in round 7 which launched him toward a peak price of $576k four weeks later.
REALISTIC CASE: Lynch is one of the best key forwards in the AFL when he is up and going. But off a limited pre-season (he has been ruled out of round 0) the odds are against him going large in the opening few rounds of the year. A match-up against West Coast in round 5 might be the perfect time for Lynch to start a big run – but unfortunately he has a bye in round 6.
VERDICT: Don’t be surprised if he takes a while to get going. It’s likely a matter of time until Lynch gets to $400k or higher, but coaches who start him will want that to happen before the mid-season byes at the latest. On the fence.
TOBY CONWAY $180,000 RUC
BEST CASE: Takes over from Rhys Stanley as the No. 1 ruckman at Geelong, playing 16-18 games while having his workload managed. The Cats have already said Conway is still being viewed as a longer-term prospect which suggests he would be unlikely to play every match while his body and skills continue to develop.
WORST CASE: Plays round 1 and or 2 but is managed for round 3 and Rhys Stanley returns and stars. That would leave you stuck with Conway while he’s playing AFL or toiling as the No. 2 behind Stanley and trying to have an impact as a forward-ruck. We all know how that worked out for Brodie Grundy and he’s better around the ground than Conway.
REALISTIC CASE: Hard to say exactly. He could play as the No. 2 in a two-ruck set-up which would hamper his cash generation and scoring. Or he could go ahead of Stanley by the end of pre-season and ruck on his own come round 1. The latter scenario would mean SuperCoaches need to consider paying up to have Conway as their R3.
VERDICT: A must-have at R3 if he’s named as the Cats’ only ruckman in round 1. If he’s sharing duties with Stanley or isn’t named, then it’s an easy call to use R3 for a loophole instead. His job security will be a question mark at the start of the season so it’s too risky to run with him at R2.
GEORGE WARDLAW $365,400 MID
BEST CASE: Rockets to premium-scoring levels like Clayton Oliver in year two when his average went from 70.3 to 111.5. It’s only a matter of time under Wardlaw is a premium scorer, but will this year be too soon? He’s airborne in pre-season and looks primed for a huge start to the campaign alongside Luke Davies-Uniacke in the engine room.
WORST CASE: The hamstring issues which have plagued him in recent years return and he has to be managed early in the season, taking away a solid scorer from your team and setting back his cash generation.
REALISTIC CASE: Hard to say. Both of the scenarios above are a possibility — but being positive, we’ll back a Wardlaw breakout. Even if he averages 90 from a starting price of $365k, you’ll be onto a winner at M6.
VERDICT: Warming to starting him a little more each day. The worst-case scenario might end up being that he makes $100k because he’s almost certain to outscore his price point of about 65 points a game.
TOM GREEN $621,500 MID
BEST CASE: Scores 140+ against North Melbourne and West Coast in the opening two rounds before GWS’ bye and you can afford to hold him when he doesn’t play in round 3. You also get a huge leg up on the rest of the competition.
WORST CASE: Averages 100 or less in the opening two rounds, loses value and then has to be traded at the bye knowing he could burn you from round 4 onwards.
REALISTIC CASE: Averages about 120 in the first two rounds (not including round 0), maintains price and coaches then need to decide whether to hold him through the bye or flip Green to a Sam Walsh/Josh Dunkley type coming off their early bye.
VERDICT: If your trade plan allows for it, starting a player with a huge scoring ceiling playing last year’s bottom-two sides could be a great springboard. The risk here isn’t very high. Starting Green just means you risk burning an extra trade — or two — moving him on and eventually getting him back in.
SAM WALSH $576,800 MID
BEST CASE: Blitzes Richmond in round 1 before the bye in round 2. That way the decision will be made for you because you will want to hold Walsh through his bye due to a low break even.
WORST CASE: Scores 100 or less against the Tigers and leaves you with a tricky call on whether to hold him in round 2 or jump on a player with a low breakeven instead.
REALISTIC CASE: If you’re starting with Walsh, barring a disaster in round 1, your plan should be to hold him through the round 2 bye. Walsh has scored 109 and 122 in his last two outings against the Tigers and then has North Melbourne after the bye.
VERDICT: Great value, but that round 2 bye is awkward and adds to his risk factor. I would be inclined to watch Walsh in opening round and round 1, then trade him in before round 3 for an underperforming premium if he has started strongly.
ELIJAH TSATAS $245,900 FWD-MID
BEST CASE: From what is essentially an elevated rookie/lower mid-price range, coaches will need Tsatas to average about 80 minimum from round 1. The dream scenario would be that he posts a ton in any of the first three matches and guarantees the money train will start rolling.
WORST CASE: He can’t break into Essendon’s stacked midfield, gets a bit lost on a wing and then ends up in the VFL after a few weeks and you’re stuck with a $250k player who’s awkward to shift. What might be even worse is that he’s named sub in round 2 and is locked into your team with little cash gen coming.
REALISTIC CASE: Hard to say based off four games. But with Parish, Merrett, Setterfield, Caldwell and maybe even Archie Perkins ahead of him, Tsatas faces a tall order to get any time on the inside which is where most SuperCoach points are scored.
VERDICT: Doesn’t seem worth the risk when there are safer options like James Harmes at a similar price. Second-year breakouts aren’t unheardof, but going from averaging 55 in four games to 80+ would be a tall order when so many of his prolific teammates dominate the SuperCoach scoring.
CLAYTON OLIVER $674,100 MID
BEST CASE: The Oliver SuperCoaches know and love returns from round 1 and bounces out of the blocks scoring 120s most weeks. He scored 164 and 114 in finals last year only a few weeks after returning from a long hamstring layoff.
WORST CASE: You start with Oliver as a POD and he takes another break from the game. But really, his mental health and wellbeing is more important than SuperCoach — as much as we all love the game. If this did eventuate, his value would mean you would have your pick of just about any midfielder in a sideways swap.
REALISTIC CASE: Never write off a champion and Oliver has proven himself to be that for a long period of time. It might take a few weeks of footy before he is truly back in peak form — but then again it might not. He is a rare player and showed he can still have a huge impact despite missing for several weeks (in-season, not pre-season as it has been this summer).
VERDICT: Every SuperCoach and footy fan just wants him to get well and be back playing good footy. Give him a few rounds to ease into things before considering Oliver in SuperCoach.
JACK MACRAE $558,400 FWD-MID
BEST CASE: Luke Beveridge remembers Macrae is a midfielder and has him alongside Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore at most centre bounces this year. If he’s in the engine room, Macrae will almost certainly be a top-three forward in 2023 and could average 110.
WORST CASE: He continues to be stuck on a wing or at half-forward, where his impact was severely hampered in the second half of last season. From round 13 onwards Macrae only posted three hundreds and averaged 88.4 in his last 10 games of 2023 (compare that to Sam Flanders, who exploded with an average of 106 in his last 10).
REALISTIC CASE: He’s going to get some midfield time, but not enough to get back to the heights of 2018-2021 when he averaged 121 points or more in every season. There are just too many mouths to feed and although Bailey Smith’s absence will help Macrae’s midfield time, the Dogs seem very bullish about James Harmes and Ryley Sanders. Caleb Daniel also appears set for more time in the middle.
VERDICT: Wait and see. Happy to take a look at his first month and if Macrae is regularly attending centre bounces and racking up disposals, he can be an early upgrade target.
JOSH KELLY $568,000 MID
BEST CASE: Kelly has a habit of annihilating the bottom teams and as noted above with Green — he takes on North Melbourne and West Coast in the opening two SuperCoach rounds. He could match a big-money star such as Marcus Bontempelli for two weeks and give you an extra $160k to spend.
WORST CASE: Kelly has had a frustrating habit of getting himself injured — although he has featured in 21, 21 and 19 games in the past three seasons. It would sting if something went wrong with his body in rounds 1 or 2 as a player at $568k isn’t an easy upgrade to the $600k midfielders. It might even take two valuable trades to make that happen.
REALISTIC CASE: Backing Kelly to feast in the opening two rounds and be one of this year’s fast starters. His last two matches against the Roos were 111 and 147 and he posted 125 points against the Eagles in 2022. The durability concerns aren’t as big a factor as they were a few years ago.
VERDICT: Could bounce out of the blocks — but what happens after that? If you’re starting Kelly, plan for a two-week sugar hit, one price rise and then trade him at the round 3 bye. As noted, the soft-tissue injury risk doesn’t seem as great as it once was for the Giants dynamo.
LUKE JACKSON $547,000 RUC-FWD
BEST CASE: No one wants to see a player injured. But the reality is when it comes to SuperCoach, Luke Jackson needs to be playing as a lone ruckman to reach his true potential. Without Sean Darcy he went enormous in the last month of 2023, scoring 173, 124, 123 and 101. Darcy has had an interrupted off-season but looks like he will be ready for round 1 which means Jackson won’t have the role he dominated in.
WORST CASE: Darcy plays every game, Jackson is only used as a part-time ruckman and has to rely on his impact as a forward/part-time midfielder to score. Jackson averaged 87 with Darcy in the team and an elite 119 when he wasn’t playing last year.
REALISTIC CASE: History tells us that Darcy is highly unlikely to play every game. In his career, the Dockers ruckman has only once played more than 19 matches. Most coaches will wait until Jackson is the lone big man and jump on then.
VERDICT: It’s a wise move to give yourself early bye coverage in the rucks — especially if starting Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. But you’ll be in for a frustrating time while Darcy and Jackson are sharing the ruck. Take the safer route and wait for Jackson’s run as the No. 1 ruck.
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