SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 20 of the AFL season
Is Patrick Cripps really back? Who lifts with the game on the line – and who goes missing? See the numbers you need to know to dominate your KFC SuperCoach finals series.
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Finals are here in KFC SuperCoach, and every decision could be the difference between staying alive in leagues or planning for 2023.
Players with trades could gain a vital advantage, while picking the right captain or emergency could be just as important in a tight head-to-head showdown.
That’s why you need SuperCoach Plus.
SuperCoach Plus gives you the numbers behind the scores as well as a treasure trove of stats and tools including Break Evens, score and price projections, the new Trade Assist button and lots more.
And now SuperCoach Plus subscribers can see live KFC SuperCoach scores for every AFL game in the 2022 season.
And you get exclusive weekly analysis articles just like this one!
Scroll down for 11 key stats to help your team this week.
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1. FAST FINISHER
Players who stand up when the game is on the line come to the fore at the business end of the season, as round 19 proved. Marcus Bontempelli has the highest three-round average in KFC SuperCoach of 147.7 after another matchwinning performance against the Demons, with 79 of his 161 points coming in an epic last quarter that featured eight disposals, eight contested possessions, seven clearances, four tackles and two score assists. The Bont added $37,000 to his price tag and has a Break Even of just 40 this week. With projected scores of over 130 in each of the final four rounds, SuperCoach Plus predicts he’ll be worth over $700,000 after round 21.
2. TOMAHAWK FIRES
Tom Hawkins also lifted late when the Cats needed him, landing two huge goals and a score assist, plus four contested possessions and five disposals for a 64-point final term against Port Adelaide. His total of 141 was his second-highest score of the season (he tallied 148 against Essendon in round 1) and his seventh score over 100. Hawkins has a good record against Geelong’s final four opponents and at GMHBA Stadium, where they play three of their final four games. At $483,400, he’s a forward worth considering.
3. WHERE’S WEHR?
More than half of Jacob Wehr’s 26,000 owners had him on the field in round 19, mostly as cover for injured Blue George Hewett. And it looked like a winning move when he had over 50 points at halftime, but his scores dried up completely after that. The Giants rookie scored just five points in the second half – the second fewest of any player on the ground – from one effective disposal and one tackle. But his score of 65 wasn’t a big surprise – he has scored between 60 and 67 in five of his nine matches.
4. IS CRIPPS BACK?
Patrick Cripps broke his ton drought with 118 points against GWS, his first score over 100 since round 13. Cripps won 34 disposals and gained 466 metres, his most since round 2, and his score could have been much higher if not for a kicking efficiency of 39 per cent – including kicking 1.2 from five shots on goal. The secret to his return to form could be as simple as the absence of George Hewett with a back injury. In the three games Hewett has missed this year Cripps has scored 139, 138 and 118 points.
4. MACRAE MAGIC
Jack Macrae had an unusually slow start on Saturday night, recording just four disposals, one clearance and zero tackles in the first quarter against Melbourne. But champs don’t stay down for long. From quarter-time onwards Macrae had a game-high 25 disposals, 22 uncontested possessions and a key goal in the final term to add 82 points in the final three quarters. Macrae is the fourth-most owned player in KFC SuperCoach and ranks fourth for total points in 2022 – behind Lachie Neale, Clayton Oliver and Touk Miller – despite not reaching the heights of recent seasons; his season average of 118.8 is his lowest since 2017. He is now priced at a season-low $584,900, a fall of $115,000 from his round 1 value.
5. HITOUT HEROES AND VILLAINS
Winning a hitout is good, but it isn’t worth anything in KFC SuperCoach unless it goes to a teammate – and you can lose points if a tap goes straight to the opposition. The stat has a big impact on ruck scores every week and there were key examples in round 19. Rowan Marshall dominated the hitouts against the Eagles, but of his 48 only eight were to advantage. Marshall also lost 13 points from five free kicks against, which held him to 88 points. Jarrod Witts had a similar issue – of his 50 hitouts against Brisbane, 11 were to advantage and 16 were sharked by the opposition, which helps explain his fourth score under 100 in his past six games. Max Gawn, on the other hand, had his radar fine-tuned after recording just three hitouts to advantage (and 50 KFC SuperCoach points) against Port Adelaide in round 18. Gawn put 15 down the throat of teammates on Saturday night along with 25 disposals on his way to 147 points, his highest score since round 12. Gawn’s price has dropped to $538,800 – the last time you could get him for less than that was in round 3, 2018.
6. DANGER ZONE
Patrick Dangerfield’s season hit a new low against Port Adelaide when he finished with just 24 KFC SuperCoach points – his lowest score in any full match on record. Dangerfield had 11 disposals (five effective), 145m gained, zero inside-50s, zero marks and one goal. He hit the target with just one of his five kicks and gave away 23 points from negative acts. Dangerfield lost $24,100 in value after lockout to drop to just $424,100 – he hasn’t been this cheap since round 23, 2011. He wasn’t the only big name to have a shocker in round 19. Eagle Tim Kelly had just four disposals (three effective) and gave away three free kicks to finish with 11 KFC SuperCoach points against St Kilda in a huge win for tagger Marcus Windhager.
8. RARE CRISP SIGHTING
Fans at the MCG on Sunday witnessed a rare event – Jack Crisp kicking on his right boot. The dashing left-footer has had 235 kicks this year and that was his 17th on his wrong side. It sailed out on the full, costing him 4.9 points in the tight final quarter. But overall his kick rating of -3.2 per cent on his right foot isn’t much worse than his -2.9 per cent rating on his left boot this season. Crisp’s score of 81 was his fifth in a row under 100 and right on his five-round average of 81.6 – ranked 60th among defenders in KFC SuperCoach.
9. CAPTAINS CORNER
We are spoilt for choice when picking a captain in round 20, which makes the decision one of the toughest of the season. Lachie Neale regained his crown as the top overall scorer in 2022 with 123 points against the Suns and faces one of his favourite opponents in Richmond on Sunday. Neale had 51 disposals and 191 KFC SuperCoach points against the Tigers in 2019 and 149 the next year. His score of 107 against them last year wasn’t as big but it was one of just six tons for Neale in a disappointing season. You can’t go wrong with reliable stars Rory Laird (average 122.6 in past three v Carlton) and Clayton Oliver (average 109.6 in his past three against Fremantle), or you can look at the biggest in-form guns. Marcus Bontempelli averages 124.6 in his past three against the Cats, while Touk Miller scored 137 against the Eagles in round 1 and is flying home with a five-round average of 131.2. Zach Merrett is in even better form – he has a five-round average of 133.4 and faces North Melbourne, which gave up more big midfield points last round (125 to Tom Mitchell and 124 to Jai Newcombe), and could lose multiple players to a Covid outbreak.
10. SOMETHING DIFFERENT
Are those big-name captain options not enough? Here are some left-field targets if you need to pull something out of the bag to win a league final. Luke Parker scored 167 and 128 in his past two games against GWS, and Jack Sinclair – now the No.1 scoring defender in KFC SuperCoach in 2022 – scored 135 against the Hawks in round 4. Patrick Cripps scored 151 against Adelaide in round 8 and is back in form (we hope) and Jordan Dawson scored 134 in that game. If you bring in Tom Stewart this week, putting the V or VC on him could deliver an instant hit. We was subbed out at quarter-time last time the Cats and Dogs met but had 39 points to that point, and scored 120 against the Bulldogs last year. Even more impressive are his numbers at GMHBA Stadium this year – 187, 122, 174.
11. ONE LAST WEIRD COLLINGWOOD STAT
Colllingwood pulled off an incredible win against Essendon on Sunday despite having no players score above 90 KFC SuperCoach points. Seven Bombers scored more than the top-scoring Magpie (Josh Daicos with 90), headed by Zach Merrett’s 133. The Magpies’ team total of 1490 was the lowest by any team in a win this season, and Essendon’s total of 1809 is the most points scored by a losing team this year. Both teams broke records set by Geelong and Port Adelaide the previous day – the Cats’ 1558 points is the second-fewest by a winning team and the Power’s 1741 is the second-most by a losing team.
Originally published as SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 20 of the AFL season
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