KFC SuperCoach Round 14 trade guide: Top targets and bye survival tips
Champion Data’s KFC SuperCoach guru Fantasy Freako suggested four trade targets last week — and they all scored 120-plus. Who is he tipping this week? TRADE GUIDE
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Not many SuperCoaches will be fielding a full 18 players this round as no less than eight teams have the bye. It’s all about getting as many players onto the field as possible and the ability to make up to four trades will definitely help.
If we look back at last week’s recommended trade targets, they all dominated, with Tom Stewart (130), Tom Mitchell (134), Todd Goldstein (126) and Aaron Hall (141) all scoring 120-plus points.
If we look ahead to Round 14, I have opted to highlight an extra midfielder at the expense of a ruckman. There’s no point making any changes in the ruck unless you’re looking at downgrading to someone like Ned Reeves should he return to the side.
This round’s targets are highlighted below:
Defence – Daniel Rich ($527,800)
Break even scores are important when it comes to analysing trade targets, but sometimes you need to ignore them and just grab the player if you want him.
That’s exactly the case with Rich. He has a highish break even of 130 – a tally he has exceeded just once this season, but he also has two scores in the 120s. So, you could probably get him a little cheaper in Round 15, but sometimes it’s worth paying a bit more and getting one of the most consistent scoring defenders in the game.
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Rich’s game is built on kicking – ranking No.1 in the AFL for kicks per game and second for effective kicks and long kicks. He is also the designated kick-in player at the Lions, taking 64 kick-ins – ranked eighth in the competition. He has played on from all but five of these, hich is a huge bonus.
Rich’s most recent scores against his next three opponents include 127, 106 and 96 points respectively. With an ownership of just 5 per cent, he looms as a nice point of difference.
Midfield – Josh Kelly ($577,000)
A 15-disposal and 64-point second term last round against the Kangaroos propelled Kelly to a season-high 147. That’s six consecutive scores over 100 after he spent the early rounds playing as a designated half-forward. He is averaging 29 disposals and 124 points since Round 7 – ranked equal-seventh in the AFL among midfielders.
Kelly has also been hitting the scoreboard over these rounds – finishing goalless just once and booting multiple goals in each of his past two games. As we know, goalkicking midfielders are gold in KFC SuperCoach.
Kelly missed last year’s Round 15 clash against Carlton, but he did score 131 and 205 points in his previous games against the Blues. He also has scores of 122 and 138 in his most recent matches against the Hawks and Demons – his other opponents over the next three rounds.
Midfield – Sam Walsh ($559,500)
Walsh has surpassed Patrick Cripps as the go-to midfield option at Carlton this season.
Of the midfielders who don’t have a bye in Round 14, Walsh ranks fifth overall for total points scored – averaging a career-high 30.3 disposals, 11.6 contested possessions, 5.4 clearances and 4.6 tackles. His consistency has been outstanding, reaching 24 disposals in every game which includes having 30-plus eight times.
Walsh has also finished in the top-three ranked Carlton players a team-high nine times. Cripps, in comparison, he has figured just once.
Walsh is one of 10 players in the league to average 30 disposals and at his current price, he’s one of the bargains of the round.
Forward – Tom Hawkins ($526,100)
SuperCoaches often overlook key forwards, and as a result Hawkins is in fewer than 10,000 teams.
After an indifferent start to the season, he has scored 90-plus points in all but one game since Round 6 – averaging 14.7 disposals, 2.7 goals, two score assists and 106 points.
He has kicked multiple goals in all but one game over these rounds, including booting 4.4 last week against the Power.
He faces the Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium this round, a venue he averages 105 points at this season, as well as 14.3 disposals, 2.3 goals and 2.8 score assists. Hawkins finishes the season with three games in Geelong, so there is huge potential for massive point hauls during the SuperCoach finals.
ROOKIE WATCH
There was pandemonium on Friday night after the No.1 trade down target for the round, Ned Reeves, was a late out with an ankle injury. Many SuperCoaches were unaware of the late out, but for those that held off on making the move, it definitely paid off.
Matt Flynn was the one likely to make way for Reeves and on paper it looked like the ideal trade, but as it turned out Flynn dominated against the Kangaroos, finishing with four contested marks, two goals, four score assists and 117 points. With a break even of 64 this round – he looks set for at least one more price rise.
Reeves is no certainty to return to the Hawks side this Sunday after his replacement Jonathon Ceglar had a blinder against the Swans. He won a career-high 13 first possessions and 11 clearances and imposed himself both in ruck contests and around the ground.
If he does play, Reeves has the lowest break even (-98) this round.
Reeves aside, Jai Newcombe was the feel-good story of the round after he tallied 75 points on his AFL debut for the Hawks. He didn’t look out of place in the midfield and it was his defensive effort that stood out the most – breaking the tackle record for a debutant. He applied 14 tackles from his 15 tackle attempts, scoring 41 points from tackles alone. With James Worpel sidelined this round through suspension, Newcombe will one again be front and centre against the Bombers. He is a must-have trade target in Round 14.
If we look ahead to Round 15, Luke Edwards looms as a key trade target after he scored 96 against the Tigers. Playing on the wing, he finished with 27 disposals, 11 contested possessions and two score assists. Even though he doesn’t play this round due to the bye, downgrading to Edwards is an option this week if you’re looking to generate funds for further upgrades. There is no chance that Edwards gets dropped after that performance, so he should play the Bulldogs in Round 15.
As always, trade wisely and best of luck ahead of Round 14!
TRADE GUIDE: TRADES TO SAVE OUR ROUND 14 SKIN
— Al Paton
As Paul Roos famously said, here it is.
Unfortunately, in our case, “it” is the Round 14 bye.
This week will be a tough one for just about every KFC SuperCoach player, so hang tough — we’re all in this together!
In case you missed the news or have been hiding from reality (an understandable response), eight teams have a bye this round — Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, St Kilda, Fremantle, Collingwood, Richmond and West Coast.
It doesn’t take long to realise that means a lot of the best scorers in KFC SuperCoach, and many of the most popular picks, will be on the sidelines.
But competition continues in KFC SuperCoach and there are some special rules to help us survive.
As with the past two bye rounds, only your best 18 scorers count towards your final tally. And we can use up to four trades this week after two were added to our season total last week following the AFL’s decision to move the Richmond v West Coast game to Round 13.
So, the priority this week is getting 18 scorers on field — or as close to that as you can get.
Many KFC SuperCoach teams will be playing one or two (or more) short, so don’t give up if you can’t get to 18 — 15 or 16 good scorers could outscore a team that has scrambled to find 18 sub-par players.
Remember, we still have 10 rounds to go, so think about how your team will look after the byes. Sacrificing a spot on field might be worth it if you think you can make up those missed points over the final nine rounds.
Having said that, getting a strong team on the park this week is a huge opportunity to get a jump on the rest of the KFC SuperCoach world.
Here are the players who can help you do that.
NEWK WEAPON
More than 20,000 coaches picked unsighted Hawks debutant Jai Newcombe before his AFL debut last week and would have loved what they saw, with an incredible 14 tackles fuelling a 75-point score.
If you didn’t get the mid-season draft revelation last week, there’s plenty of time to get on board and take advantage of his bargain basement price ($102,400 MID) before his price changes. Cash flow problems solved!
FLYNN-SANITY
The “reverse trades” button went into meltdown about 7pm last Friday when Hawthorn ruckman Ned Reeves was a late withdrawal against Sydney.
He had been one of the most popular trades of the week, with a downgrade from popular GWS big man Matthew Flynn freeing up almost $250,000 to fund other trade moves.
But those who were able to reverse the move and put Flynn on the field gained 117 points after his two-goal game against North Melbourne.
Flynn is now a certainty to play in Round 14, covering a key on-field vacancy with ruck powerhouses Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy both on the bye.
It’s not all good news, though — the money from the aborted Flynn trade was vital to most coaches’ other trade plans.
The easiest solution is to make the Flynn to Reeves move this week if the Hawks ruckman is named to play against Essendon. His injury was not serious — a rolled ankle at the captains run — but the complication is his replacement Jon Ceglar played one of the best games of his career. Can Clarko play both as well as captain Ben McEvoy?
If you already have Newcombe and Reeves misses, we might have to cross our fingers one of the 10 teams playing this weekend names a surprise debutant. Thursday night teams are going to be very interesting.
DANGER TIME?
Getting KFC SuperCoach superstar Patrick Dangerfield for more than $50k under his starting price, filling a vital forward slot and covering the Round 14 bye — where do we sign up?
But wait a moment. Is this the right move?
Danger has now played three games in an injury-interrupted 2021 season and is set for a big price drop after scoring 66 points on return against the Power.
That means his price has dropped from $611,900 to $552,800, a great price considering his incredible scoring history — averaging 105 or more every season since 2012.
The complication is Dangerfield is going to get even cheaper. His break even this week against the Bulldogs is 191, which means he is likely to be available for a lot closer to $500k next week.
Some coaches will be happy to pass up the extra value and jump on early, others will hold out with those extra dollars vital in the run home. There’s no wrong answer on this one, but one interesting stat to keep in mind — Dangerfield’s lowest score in his past seven games against the Dogs is 115.
TRADE TARGETS
Patrick Dangerfield $552,800 FWD/MID
Looked in for a big night against Port Adelaide after a powerful first quarter but ran out of gas — understandable in his first game in eight weeks. Expected to be priced about $554k this week with a break even around 190. Do you take the plunge?
Jai Newcombe $102,400 MID
The clear No.1 rookie pick at a bargain basement price and a safe spot in the Hawks midfield. Won’t rise in price until Round 15 but his score will be vital this week. Don’t miss out.
Kieren Briggs $123,900 DEF/FWD
Giants big man has played one game this season for a score of 42 against the Tigers in Round 9. But Leon Cameron has talked up his VFL form and he could be next in line if Shane Mumford is suspended, providing a much-needed rookie lifeline.
Lachie Neale $575,200 MID
Similar to Dangerfield, Neale looked a bit rusty in his first game back from syndesmosis surgery in Round 12, scoring 84. Like Dangerfield, he has a high break even this round (163) which will likely lead to another price drop, but is that missed saving worth getting another gun midfielder for Round 14?
Zach Merrett $563,900 MID
A classic post-bye trade target coming off Essendon’s Round 13 bye and now available for every game for the rest of the season. Almost $60k under his starting price despite scoring 117, 119 and 137 in his past three.
Sam Walsh $559,500 MID
Toss of a coin between the Blues gun and Merrett as this week’s top target, but Walsh is $4k cheaper and averages 114.5 for the year so you could argue he is just in front. Also has a higher scoring floor with a lowest score this year of 89 (versus a 64 from Merrettt).
Kyle Langford $474,000 FWD/MID
The bargain pick of the week. Dual-position Bomber was very consistent over the first nine rounds, averaging 77 with a lowest score of 67, and has exploded in the past three rounds with scores of 101, 125 and 126.
Marcus Bontempelli $681,600 MID
If you’ve got cash to spend you can’t go past the Bont, who has a lowest score of 107 since Round 3 — and seven of his past eight over 125.
Caleb Daniel $474,900 DEF
Played as a centre bounce midfielder in his last game so who knows where Bevo will throw him but still very affordable and averages 100.3 over his past six games.
Josh Treacy $217,200 FWD/RUC
Some coaches selected the young Freo goalkicker on speculation at his $102,400 starting price. He is now over $200k after scoring 88 and 95 in his past two games but that could still worth looking at for flexibility in the run home with another ruck-forward Callum Coleman-Jones. Unfortunately he doesn’t help this week with Freo on the bye.
Tom Stewart $532,200 DEF
Mr Reliable got the job done again in Round 13, posting 130 points against Port Adelaide. His price doesn’t change much but you can’t go wrong with a guy who just puts up great numbers every week.
Matt Rowell $495,100 MID
Not yet. Just 54 points on return from injury. Give him some time to warm back into things then pounce when his price drops to close to $400k in 2-3 weeks.
Dan Houston $414,900 DEF
Port defender scored 102 — bang on his break even, which means he’s still a bargain. Has scored 97 and 102 after returning from injury.
Ollie Wines $570,900 MID
The Wines trend we identified last week looks even stronger now after a season-high 144 points against the Cats takes his four-game average to 129.3. It also continued his pattern of posting huge scores at home, and Port plays the Suns at Metricon Stadium this week ... maybe we’re just being picky.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Round 14 trade guide: Top targets and bye survival tips
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