KFC SuperCoach AFL: The 10 greatest risk-reward players of 2023 analysed
Nat Fyfe is a KFC SuperCoach hall of famer and available for just over $300k. But, with more forward time looming, is it worth the risk? Our experts give their verdict.
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You can become a good KFC SuperCoach by playing it safe.
But to be a great KFC SuperCoach, you need to be prepared to take calculated risks and back your instincts.
The top coaches make moves that set them apart from the pack, trading players in at the right times or choosing the point-of-difference players others miss from the start.
There are huge question marks hanging over some of KFC SuperCoach’s most-proven scorers heading into 2023 as they try to bounce back from injury, form issues or prove themselves at a new club.
We’ve assessed some of the riskiest prospects for 2023 and whether you should take the plunge or not.
Read our full verdicts below.
Nat Fyfe $313,600 FWD-MID
No player fits the risk-reward category better than Fyfe after the dual Brownlow medallist’s starting price plumetted its lowest point since 2011 – the first year Fyfe averaged triple figures and his second in the AFL. The risk here should be obvious. Fyfe has played 36 matches in the past three seasons and only managed seven appearances in 2022. In fact, in the past seven seasons he has averaged only 13.8 games. Fyfe has headed to the US this off-season, a trip he said he hopes will make him more durable. The most recent reports from the west suggested Fyfe’s body was in “really good order”, with coach Justin Longmuir expecting Fyfe will make a “sizeable contribution” in 2023. Fyfe has been touted for more of a forward role but at this price will be near-impossible for KFC SuperCoaches to overlook if he gets through the rest of pre-season unscathed. He’s not going to average the elite numbers he once did but anything north of 90 would help make him a stepping stone to a premium.
Tim’s verdict: Has to get through pre-season without any setbacks before you could take the risk. Looms as a candidate to be subbed out of matches or managed during the year.
Al Paton’s verdict: Fitness is a tick so far but noise around him playing as a permanent forward worries me. But he’s currently in my team.
The Phantom’s verdict: I think he can score enough as a forward to justify the price tag. But I prefer Yeo out the two injury-prone stars at this point.
Dan Batten’s verdict: If he is fit for round 1 and looks to be at least splitting his time between centre bounces and the attacking 50, he will be worth the injury-risk at that price.
Brodie Grundy $512,900 RUC
Throw his new partner in crime Max Gawn in as well for pure risk. How the Demons make their new ruck set-up work with the two set-and-forget KFC SuperCoach ruckmen will be one of the great questions of 2023. Gawn still scored elite KFC SuperCoach numbers playing with Luke Jackson in 2022, but it was the Melbourne skipper who did the lion’s share of centre square work while Jackson provided cover. The early hints seem to suggest Grundy will be the lead ruckman and Gawn will play either as a key forward or behind the ball in a strategy similar to that used by reigning premier Geelong. Their partnership could end up being a masterstroke by the Demons (which is why we think there could be reward here, along with Grundy’s appealing price) but logic suggests they will cancel each other out as premium ruckmen. Grundy hasn’t started a season this cheap since 2016 and will have an elite midfield to feed. He could be the No.1 ruckman of 2023 or not even close to the top two or three options.
Tim’s verdict: The biggest question of pre-season for KFC SuperCoaches is how the Demons can make the Gawn-Grundy partnership work. If Grundy is doing most of the ruckwork, he needs to come into your thinking.
Al’s verdict: Priced in the low 90s which is unders but Gawn’s hamstring injury is terrible timing – you can’t pick either without seeing them play together.
The Phantom’s verdict: Would love to pick him at the price, but it’s still very much a wait and see how Melbourne’s ruck duo works.
Dan Batten’s verdict: The lack of quality ruck options makes a discounted Grundy a much less risky pick. My R1 at this stage.
Lachie Whitfield $473,800 MID
Will the real Lachie Whitfield please stand up? Only four 100-plus scores last year after he was supposed to be a bargain at $502k left thousands of KFC SuperCoaches scorned. The first of those tons didn’t come until round 13 which was a disaster when cheaper options such as James Sicily soared past him. Why did he struggle so much? A combination of role an injuries. Playing high half forward/wing is one of the worst roles for scoring and Whitfield’s best seasons were as a half-back flanker. He scored 118, 101, 103 and 96 in his first four games with Mark McVeigh in charge, so the scoring ability is definitely there. He hasn’t played more than 18 games since 2018, so his durability is a big concern. Hopefully Adam Kingsley lets him loose at half-back and DPP comes into the mix.
Tim’s verdict: Not as a MID only. Reassess at round 6 when he might have DEF-MID status depending on his role under Kingsley. He might be a top-six defender but won’t go close in the MIDs.
Al’s verdict: Can’t totally rule out a player has averaged 111 in a season but would take a lot of convincing. Could be a mid-season option.
The Phantom’s verdict: Adam Kingsley’s new game style should suit the playmaker but, after what he’s done to us in the past, I’ll definitely be having a look first.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Never say never. But it would take some very encouraging form – and a definite move back into defence – to consider him.
James Worpel $309,300 MID
The Worpedo looked destined for KFC SuperCoach stardom when his average jumped from 73 in his debut season to 97 in 2019. But he has scored only six KFC SuperCoach tons in 46 matches since and his role has suffered as a result of Jai Newcombe’s emergence as a midfield general. Still only 23, Worpel has resumed full contact training after a shoulder injury which ended his 2022 campaign at round 16. Greater opportunity in the middle beckons after Tom Mitchell’s move to Collingwood and Jaeger O’Meara’s departure to Fremantle. A career-low kicking efficiency of 41 per cent held Worpel’s scoring back last year, but his contested possession rate and tackling are two bedrocks of KFC SuperCoach scoring. Awkward price at $309k but the potential upside is significant.
Tim’s verdict: Prefer Jai Newcombe if you can find the extra $170k. Worpel is one to monitor during pre-season though as his first full season in 2019 suggested he had premium potential. Maybe it was just Mitchell holding him back?
Al’s verdict: Someone will get opportunities in the Hawks engine room but Worpel’s scores last year included 37, 42 and 34. Don’t like that price in the midfield, either.
The Phantom’s verdict: Only 240 of Worpel’s 485 kicks over the past three seasons were effective. Won’t reach any great heights but could still do the job at the price. Watch list.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Jacob Hopper is streets ahead in this price bracket and it would be tough for KFC SuperCoaches to fit Worpel in as well. He will make some coin if he can return to his 2019-2020 form, but his disposal efficiency will always hurt his scoring.
Jason Horne-Francis $348,800 FWD-MID
The No.1 draft pick of 2021 is still building into his first pre-season at Alberton after off-season knee surgery but according to teammate Xavier Duursma, “he’s looking pretty electric”. Horne-Francis never really settled at North Melbourne and after a promising start when he scored 75, 98, 67 and 93, his KFC SuperCoach scoring tailed away. He’s destined to become a premium scorer at some point, but will 2023 be too soon? Horne-Francis averaged 88 rankings points a game during his draft year in the SANFL and his average of 63 points last year is likely to be the lowest of his AFL career. Could a happier Horne-Francis explode out of the blocks after his return to South Australia? Watch his pre-season progress and role with interest as he might be a potential bargain F4.
Tim’s verdict: Should benefit from playing in a stronger team and being happier back in his home state. His price tag is awkward, but most of us paid $207k to start him last year. Just hard to see how he gets enough midfield minutes with Connor Rozee and Zak Butters likely to become more regular members of the engine room. Might be wise to look at some of the cheaper breakout options flagged by The Phantom instead.
Al’s verdict: I can see a world where JHF enjoys a breakout campaign and an average above 90 would deliver a $150,000 price rise. On the watch list.
The Phantom’s verdict: Would be a big call but he could explode. Forget the drama, he can play.
Dan Batten’s verdict: No doubt he will be in our sights at some stage, but he would need plenty of midfield time to be considered. And with Connor Rozee and Zak Butters in at more centre bounces, that seems unlikely.
Nick Haynes $318,700 DEF
The GWS defender recorded his lowest KFC SuperCoach average since 2012 last season, dropping below 64 points a game for only the second time in his career. Haynes was rarely used in his favoured role as an intercept defender last year and was even trialled across half-forward. It was a strange move for a player named in the All-Australian team in 2020 thanks to his prowess in defence. New Giants coach Adam Kingsley has forecast a return to the forward line for Harry Himmelberg, who became a KFC SuperCoach star in Haynes’ role last year. Could that open the door for Haynes to return to an average of 85-plus?
Tim’s verdict: Big pre-season watch. Two years ago he averaged 98, but Isaac Cumming has become the most likely defensive premium at the Giants. If he returns to the half-back interceptor role which made him an All-Australian contender, he has keeper potential at only $318k. I’m bullish.
Al’s verdict: Don’t think I could pick a player off one season average above 90 in his 11-year career – but if Yeo breaks down I might be desperate.
The Phantom’s verdict: Should get out the way. Harry H is the man.
Dan Batten verdict: His KFC SuperCoach relevance fell off a cliff last year. Pass.
Jack Bowes $277,500 DEF
Geelong declared during the trade period it wanted Bowes – and not just pick 7 – with an eye on the former Gold Coast Sun being part of its round 1 side in 2023. Whether you believe that or not, Bowes is sure to be a player of interest in pre-season as he tries to earn a spot in the reigning premier’s midfield. The main issue is that Bowes’ best KFC SuperCoach scoring was when he was playing as an intercept defender and taking kick-ins for Gold Coast, which won’t happen at the Cattery with Tom Stewart and Zach Tuohy around. The price might be appealing, but there are so many red flags. Not to mention he might be playing VFL come round 1.
Tim’s verdict: Job security is just too flimsy to consider him.
Al’s verdict: I like the potential a lot but Chris Scott’s selection strategy makes me very nervous – is he Jordan Clark 2.0? His price would help my backline structure. Definitely not ruling him out.
The Phantom’s verdict: Training with the midfield group as he is a midfielder. Put up big CP number last year in the VFL and is another who could make great early cash if picked in round 1. In my team at the moment.
Dan Batten’s verdict: If we get an accurate gauge of his role and job security at the Cats and it’s pointing in the right direction, I’ll heavily consider. His VFL numbers are strong and we saw what he was capable of as a rebounding defender in 2021.
Rowan Marshall $506,500 RUC
Marshall would be close to the best ruckman in KFC SuperCoach if St Kilda would just play him without a No.2. Just look at round 20 last season when he ran amok against Hawthorn, tallying 30 disposals, 35 hitouts, five inside-50s, seven clearances and 173 KFC SuperCoach points. The issue has long been that he was playing second fiddle to Paddy Ryder and Marshall was used as a forward who would pinch-hit in the ruck. Three rounds after that monster score against the Hawks, Marshall scored 64 against Sydney with Tom Campbell also in the team. He should be a great selection, but every week will be a nervous watch to see if Ross Lyon names a second ruckman.
Tim’s verdict: Firming by the day as Tom Campbell battles an achilles issue and Jack Hayes went down with injury. If Ross Lyon names one ruckman in round 1, don’t miss out.
Al’s verdict: Ross Lyon has not historically been a friend of KFC SuperCoaches but that will change if he plays RoMo as a solo ruck and lets him loose.
The Phantom’s verdict: A lock if Ross plays ball.
Dan Batten’s verdict: This is the year to holler for a Marshall. Even with St Kilda’s forward line dropping like flies, Marshall should be the No.1 man in the ruck. Pls Ross
Elliott Yeo $337,00 DEF-MID
The Eagles star was destined to join KFC SuperCoach’s premier midfielders after averaging 107.9 and 107.6 in 2018 and 2019. Since then, injury woes have restricted Yeo to 27 games across three years including only five in 2022. Respected WA journalist Ryan Daniels reported recently that Yeo was “flying” at pre-season training and being prepared for a role playing midfield/half-back in 2023. The only risk here is that Yeo is injured again and you’re left scrambling to try and find a replacement, which won’t be easy at his price. Hopefully for KFC SuperCoaches and the Eagles his body holds up at least long enough for him to make a decent profit.
Tim’s verdict: The Eagles are making positive noises about his pre-season progress and his role would be perfect for KFC SuperCoach. If he’s fit come round 1 he’ll likely make my side.
Al’s verdict: A look at other defenders in this price bracket gives an indication of Yeo’s value – Ben Miller, Ryan Gardner, Tom McCartin, Jy Farrar. He’s ahead of Fyfe for me.
The Phantom’s verdict: Could end in disaster at any moment but the value is obvious.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Three 100-plus averages from 2017-2019 underlines his potential. If he can eclipse the 85-90 mark – as he did in his next two injury-affected seasons – he will be a worthy pick. And he is capable of that as a defender or through the midfield.
Braydon Preuss $506,000 RUC
Injured. Suspended. Dropped. The GWS goliath put KFC SuperCoaches through the ringer last year. He was only $204k at the start of 2022, which mitigated most of the risk coaches took either starting Preuss or bringing him in when he played his first game of the year in round 3. His first six games of the year were scores of 102-120 but Preuss then missed round 10 through illness and didn’t get back into the team until round 14. In that game he went down with an early ankle injury and scored 17 points. His remaining three games were scores of 85, 64 and 93 – it’s even frustrating to read again. As a ruckman who relishes contested footy and had the highest hitout-to-advantage rate of any player to win more than three hitouts last year, Preuss should be among the best-scoring big men in KFC SuperCoach. But his selection can’t even be guaranteed week-to-week and his suspension history is a huge concern. At least he’ll be a point of difference this year if you’re brave enough to take the punt.
Tim’s verdict: Surely you aren’t willing to put yourself through another year of the Preuss rollercoaster? If so, good luck.
Al’s verdict: A cheap ruckman would be handy but he’s not even that cheap. No thanks.
The Phantom: Hahaha.
Dan Batten:s verdict: Not sure I could go back there after he got subbed out when I traded him BACK IN last year. But there’s too much uncertainty over the GWS ruck mantle and his durability.
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