Scott Gullan analyses every coach’s pressure rating ahead of the 2023 season
It is only just over 12 months since the Demons’ famous drought breaking flag triumph, so why is the pressure already starting to warm for Simon Goodwin?
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If the AFL coaching fraternity needed any reminder of how fickle the industry is then Brett Ratten’s sacking just three months into a new deal rammed that home. It was a reminder to all that contracts mean zilch in the new era. It also raised the question – and definitely the anxiety levels of some coaches – about who will enter 2023 feeling the most heat.
Scott Gullan takes a look at where the temperature might be rising.
PRESSURE RATING: IN THE FURNACE
LUKE BEVERIDGE (Western Bulldogs)
C’mon surely we’re not writing this. The man who was given the job for life after he won the Western Bulldogs its second ever premiership, is running out of credits. Why? Why? Why? It’s almost painful to type these words out BUT let’s be honest Bevo didn’t have a great year. He was taking on fights all over the place, the only problem was his team wasn’t doing enough of that on the field. A grand final appearance a year ago followed by a trainwreck season isn’t cause to throw the toys out of the cot but Bevo needs a public makeover in his contract year. Some good old zen will help, a fresh support crew will help as will The Bont having a Brownlow year.
KEN HINKLEY (Port Adelaide)
Strap yourselves in for weekly Kochie updates. Times like these having a TV host as your president is far from ideal. In many ways Camperdown Ken has a free hit this year. He’s had a great stint, he knows the press is itching to be a hero and sack him and the market has Kochie at $1.01 to say in the pre-season “we have to win the premiership this year”. What Kenny has in his corner is the fact the players love him, there is good enough talent to be a top-four side and he now has The Horn (sorry Jason Horne-Francis) whose behaviour on and off the field is going to at least keep Kochie distracted for a couple of weeks.
ADAM SIMPSON (West Coast)
We know Western Australia likes to do things in their own way and create their own little country over there but we’re pretty sure Covid is no longer a big deal. Why we bring this up is because the West Coast Eagles have whined and moaned about the pandemic for a couple of years and used it as an excuse for being total rubbish. Premiership coach Simmo won just two games, let’s repeat that, TWO games in 2022. Last time we checked they weren’t an expansion team just finding their feet. The coach may have a couple more years on his contract but you can’t be serving that tripe up again.
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PRESSURE RATING: WARMING UP
CHRIS FAGAN (Brisbane Lions)
Finals the past four years, going from sixth to a preliminary final this year, so why is there a warmth around Chris Fagan? It’s like there was an awakening after Geelong went berserk on them in the prelim, a sense that this group had missed their chance. The much-hyped forward line is a flop, there is a whiff about the defence, Lachie Neale can’t play much better and Josh Dunkley isn’t going to change the world. Hmmmmm.
MICHAEL VOSS (Carlton)
Close your eyes for a couple of seconds and imagine if Carlton misses the finals again in 2023. Now stop laughing if you’re not a Blues fan but if you’re Vossy, that’s a situation which would bring out some moisture on the forehead. There will be plenty who will say the list is good enough to contend – and we’re nearly in that boat – so any repeat of last year’s losing streak could have Ratten-like consequences.
SIMON GOODWIN (Melbourne)
The warmth here has nothing to do with job security but more about where this brilliant team will end up in history. A straight sets finals exit after being 10-0 last year sent up some red flags. It was more the way they looked against Sydney and Brisbane in September which was the concern. And then going all chips in with Brodie Grundy is a move which looks good on paper but …
DAMIEN HARDWICK (Richmond)
Again this heat watch is not about Dimma’s tenure at Punt Rd. Three flags in four years means he should have the joint named after him but there is a clear selling-the-farm-for-one-last-crack vibe at the Tigers next year. Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper on 25-year deals say they’re loading up the midfield to help Dusty have one last “I’m the best player in the land” year and win Trent, Jack and Dylan a flag on their way out.
STUART DEW (Gold Coast)
The old Ratts-factor is the most relevant for Stuey Dew. After five decent years of rebuilding he rightly got a new contract but there is no more sand in the hour glass. There needs to be another leap, yes Izak Rankine is gone, but Ben King will be back and another double-figure finish – Dew has gone 17th, 18th, 14th, 16th and 12th – would test the patience of his very loose chairman.
SAM MITCHELL (Hawthorn)
Mitch is in for the long haul but boy-oh-boy wowee his strategy is gutsy. We’ve seen this before, gutting the list to Ground Zero and then rebuilding from there. Letting go O’Meara, Mitchell and Gunston along with captain Ben McEvoy’s retirement leaves some serious holes. We love the fortitude from Mitch but there are going to be some sweaty moments along the way.
MATTHEW NICKS (Adelaide)
There is a bit of a yawn about the Crows which is half the problem for Nicks. At some stage the old “we’re rebuilding” gets tired and Nicks is coming into his fourth year after 18th, 15th and 14th finishes. Adelaide like to think they’re a big club who don’t tolerate fools, well, another season of the same will test the patience.
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PRESSURE RATING: ICE COOL
ROSS LYON (St Kilda)
The Messiah of Moorabbin gets a free pass in year one although there would need to be a spike given all of the hype and the fact the board sacked a bloke, who’d only just be handed a two-year extension, who had 11 wins last year and was in the eight for most of it. It will be worth getting the popcorn out because Ross The Boss and the Saints are going to be an intriguing watch.
BRAD SCOTT (Essendon)
Another who gets a free hit although the Bombers faithful will be expecting a significant improvement quite quickly. This group played finals 12 months ago so there is something to work with for Scott who might have some anxious moments as he finds his feet a second time around.
JOHN LONGMIRE (Sydney)
While the flogging in the GF will linger for a while, once that cloud clears the fact ‘Horse’ got this young team to the last dance this year was damn impressive. They are built for the next few years and should only get better. Suddenly life without Buddy doesn’t seem so bad.
ALASTAIR CLARKSON (North Melbourne)
The ultimate blank canvas for the coaching legend. They certainly can’t go much worse but there will be lots of eyes on Arden St to see what tricks Clarko still has up his sleeve. He’ll certainly ensure the Roos will be worth watching which is something they haven’t been.
CRAIG McRAE (Collingwood)
Coach of the Year can do no wrong. Backing up after such an incredible season is always harder but there is no reason to think ‘Fly’ can’t achieve that. Grundy and Oliver leaving might come back to bite but it’s all nice, cool and breezy for the new Pies hero.
JUSTIN LONGMUIR (Fremantle)
Won a final in his third season and is on the fast track to being a coaching genius. Gets Luke Jackson as a new play thing and would be thinking top four if they get Fyfe fit.
ADAM KINGSLEY (GWS Giants)
Has a tough gig to make the Giants relevant again but gets the mandatory 12-month free pass. Keeps losing players but has Toby Greene who is the only Box Office thing about GWS now.
CHRIS SCOTT (Geelong)
Can stay on his overseas break until June if he wants to. An amazing coaching achievement, addressed his own style and changed accordingly. More pina coladas please.
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