Run Home: Every AFL club’s last nine weeks, final predicted ladder

The Pies have set the benchmark so far in 2023, but can anyone run them down or is the minor premiership a certainty? See the predicted run home.

The run home: Where will your team finish?

The race for finals has never been tighter and the run home indicates a suite of potential eight-point swing games which will shape the eight.

Can the Saints and Bombers hold on? Are the Dockers and Suns coming? We run the eye over every club’s remaining fixture with the perilous task of predicting the ladder at the end of the season

1. COLLINGWOOD

Played: 14, Won: 12, Lost: 2, Points: 48, Percentage: 132.4

R16: Gold Coast, HBS (W)

R17: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (W)

R18: Fremantle, MCG (W)

R19: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

R20: Carlton, MCG (W)

R21: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R22: Geelong, MCG (W)

R23: Brisbane, Marvel (W)

R24: Essendon, MCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 1st (20-3)

Pushed right to the line by the Crows and there are more tests coming for the Pies but they’ve shown they can stand up to most challenges. The cavalry will come back too in Jordan De Goey and eventually Dan McStay and Steele Sidebottom. Port Adelaide is round 19 is shaping as an absolute classic at Adelaide Oval. Five of the last nine games against current top eight sides plus Fremantle and Carlton at the MCG. It will be a fascinating run home for the Magpies.

2. PORT ADELAIDE

Played: 14, Won: 12, Lost: 2, Points: 48, Percentage: 119.3

R16: Essendon, MCG (W)

R17: Gold Coast, AO (W)

R18: Carlton, Marvel (W)

R19: Collingwood, AO (W)

R20: Adelaide, AO (W)

R21: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

R22: GWS Giants, AO (W)

R23: Fremantle, Optus (W)

R24: Richmond, AO (W)

Predicted Finish: 2nd (20-3)

Their winning run should stretch to 12 this week against the Bombers before a trio of tricky matches and then a Showdown against their exciting cross-town rivals. From what we’ve seen so far this season it could be just one more loss for the Power which would be an extraordinary result for coach Ken Hinkley in a contract year. Could need just four more wins to lock up a top four spot.

Nick Daicos of the Magpies. Picture: Getty Images

Zak Butters of the Power. Picture: Getty Images

3. BRISBANE LIONS

Played: 14, Won: 10, Lost: 4, Points: 40, Percentage: 121.1

R16: Richmond, Gabba (W)

R17: West Coast, Gabba (W)

R18: Melbourne, MCG (W)

R19: Geelong, Gabba (W)

R20: Gold Coast, HBS (L)

R21: Fremantle, Optus (L)

R22: Adelaide, Gabba (W)

R23: Collingwood, Marvel (L)

R24: St Kilda, Gabba (W)

Predicted Finish: 4th (16-7)

An interesting run home with some tough matches throughout but a strong record at home should give Chris Fagan more than enough confidence they can sew up the double chance. Round 18 against Melbourne at the MCG will be a replay of last year’s semi-final and the perfect opportunity for a tune up at the ground that has haunted the Lions at times before September.

4. MELBOURNE

Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Points: 36, Percentage: 128.3

R16: GWS Giants, TIO (W)

R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R18: Brisbane, MCG (L)

R19: Adelaide, MCG (W)

R20: Richmond, MCG (W)

R21: North Melbourne, BA (W)

R22: Carlton, MCG (W)

R23: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R24: Sydney, SCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 3rd (17-6)

A tough loss to the Cats but a reasonable remaining draw should give the 2021 premiers plenty of confidence. Five of the last nine at the MCG will be music to Simon Goodwin’s ears and could they possibly finish the year with nine straight wins? Clayton Oliver back will be a huge in and a top four spot should be the only goal for the Dees.

5. ST KILDA

Played: 14, Won: 8, Lost: 6, Points: 32, Percentage: 109.2

R16: West Coast, Optus (W)

R17: Melbourne, Marvel (L)

R18: Gold Coast, HBS (L)

R19: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)

R20: Hawthorn, Marvel (W)

R21: Carlton, Marvel (L)

R22: Richmond, Marvel (L)

R23: Geelong, Marvel (L)

R24: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

Predicted Finish: 10th (11-12)

A disappointing loss to Lions and the Saints draw becomes a fascinating watch. With a logjam at the bottom end of the eight, a massive win is needed this week against the Eagles with percentage set to the decider between who makes the final eight. That’s if the Saints get themselves in that position. The final four games now looking hard to pick.

6. ESSENDON

Played: 14, Won: 8, Lost: 6, Points: 32, Percentage: 107

R16: Port Adelaide, MCG (L)

R17: Adelaide, Marvel (L)

R18: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

R19: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)

R20: Sydney, Marvel (W)

R21: West Coast, Marvel (W)

R22: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)

R23: GWS Giants, GS (L)

R24: Collingwood, MCG (L)

Predicted Finish: 11th (11-12)

Another side who could be clinging to eighth spot with a brutal month of football ahead. The two South Australian sides are flying before the Cats at home. Can’t afford to drop any 50/50 games from here but even then it might not be enough. Still have been super at times under coach Brad Scott and an 11 win season would still be an improved effort on last season.

Peter Wright and the Bombers face a big month. Picture: Getty Images

Max King and the Saints could drop out of the eight. Picture: Getty Images

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Played: 14, Won: 8, Lost: 6, Points: 32, Percentage: 102.9

R16: Fremantle, Marvel (W)

R17: Collingwood, Marvel (L)

R18: Sydney, SCG (L)

R19: Essendon, Marvel (W)

R20: GWS Giants, Mars (W)

R21: Richmond, Marvel (W)

R22: Hawthorn, UTAS (W)

R23: West Coast, Marvel (W)

R24: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

Predicted Finish: 5th (14-9)

One of the harder teams to predict ahead of their final nine games. If they play at their best from what we’ve seen this year then a top four spot is now out of the question. Being a game out now though hurts. Should be making finals comfortably.

8. ADELAIDE

Played: 14, Won: 7, Lost: 7, Points: 28, Percentage: 115.1

R16: North Melbourne, AO (W)

R17: Essendon, Marvel (W)

R18: GWS Giants, AO (W)

R19: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R20: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

R21: Gold Coast, AO (W)

R22: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R23: Sydney, AO (W)

R24: West Coast, Optus (W)

Predicted Finish: 6th (13-10)

Lost no fans after a nailbiting loss to the Pies but it showed what they’re capable of, even away from Adelaide Oval. Essendon at Marvel will be a great test and a game any good side should win. They’ll get another chance at the MCG, too, round 19 against the Dees will be seriously entertaining. Finals a must from here.

9. GEELONG

Played: 14, Won: 7, Lost: 7, Points: 28, Percentage: 114.2

R16: Sydney, SCG (L)

R17: North Melbourne, GMHBA (W)

R18: Essendon, GMHBA (W)

R19: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R20: Fremantle, GMHBA (W)

R21: Port Adelaide, GMHBA (W)

R22: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R23: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R24: Western Bulldogs, GMHBA (W)

Predicted Finish: 7th (13-10)

Write them off at your own peril. The Cats will still be incredibly difficult to beat at home and they have five of the last nine at GMHBA. They also have two games in Melbourne, meaning just two interstate to come. That’s handy enough and an experienced side like the Cats should be using that to their advantage.

10. GOLD COAST

Played: 14, Won: 7, Lost: 7, Points: 28, Percentage: 100.7

R16: Collingwood, HBS (L)

R17: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

R18: St Kilda, HBS (W)

R19: GWS Giants, MO (L)

R20: Brisbane, HBS (W)

R21: Adelaide, AO (L)

R22: Sydney, SCG (L)

R23: Carlton, HBS (W)

R24: North Melbourne, BA (W)

Predicted Finish: 12th (11-12)

The Suns have yo-yoed all year but they have a platform to make finals for the first time in the club’s history. But they will have to stand up in tough games with St Kilda at home, Sydney away and the Blues at home crucial to their final position. Even then, it could still come down to percentage.

Can Noah Anderson and the Suns make the finals for the first time? Picture: Getty Images

11. FREMANTLE

Played: 14, Won: 7, Lost: 7, Points: 28, Percentage: 97.3

R16: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)

R17: Carlton, Optus (W)

R18: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R19: Sydney, Optus (W)

R20: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

R21: Brisbane, Optus (W)

R22: West Coast, Optus (W)

R23: Port Adelaide, Optus (L)

R24: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 8th (12-11)

The Dockers showed they meant business in their convincing win over the Bombers. It’s not an easy run home but wins at Optus Stadium plus an away victory against the Hawks in round 24 could be enough for Justin Longmuir’s side to sneak in after a slow start to the season. Once again percentage could be the factor and round 22 against West Coast could be crucial.

12. RICHMOND

Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Drawn: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 102.4

R16: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R17: Sydney, MCG (W)

R18: West Coast, Optus (W)

R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)

R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)

R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

Predicted Finish: 9th (11-1-11)

There are many Tigers fans who think the finals dream is still alive and they’re right despite a predicted 9th finish. They have a winnable game against the Dogs in round 21 which could shape how the eight looks. At this stage just half a game out in our final ladder and we know a surging Tigers outfit could flip the script at some point in the last nine games.

13. SYDNEY

Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Points: 24, Percentage: 113.3

R16: Geelong, SCG (W)

R17: Richmond, MCG (L)

R18: Western Bulldogs, SCG (W)

R19: Fremantle, Optus (L)

R20: Essendon, Marvel (L)

R21: GWS Giants, GS (W)

R22: Gold Coast, SCG (W)

R23: Adelaide, AO (L)

R24: Melbourne, SCG (L)

Predicted Finish: 13th (10-13)

A tough fixture means it’s hard to see John Longmire’s men recapture what we saw during their 2022 campaign. The only plus side is that they take on enough teams above them to make them eight point matches and create some possible leapfrog outcomes. We have them finishing 13th but there’s a chance a few upsets could occur and they sneak into the top eight.

14. GWS GIANTS

Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Points: 24, Percentage: 97

R16: Melbourne, TIO (L)

R17: Hawthorn, GS (W)

R18: Adelaide, AO (L)

R19: Gold Coast, MO (W)

R20: Western Bulldogs, Mars (L)

R21: Sydney, GS (L)

R22: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

R23: Essendon, GS (W)

R24: Carlton, Marvel (L)

Predicted Finish: 15th (9-14)

The Giants have had glimpses of what an exciting brand of football under coach Adam Kingsley looks like but the run home is tough. They should get a win over the Hawks at home in round 17 but aside from that there are no other certainties. The glass half full look is that they could play the role of finals shapers with games against Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Essendon and Carlton all to have an effect on the final eight.

15. CARLTON

Played: 14, Won: 5, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 22, Percentage: 98.1

R16: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R17: Fremantle, Optus (L)

R18: Port Adelaide, Marvel (L)

R19: West Coast, Marvel (W)

R20: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R21: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R22: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R23: Gold Coast, HBS (L)

R24: GWS Giants, Marvel (W)

Predicted Finish: 14th (9-1-13)

Could the Blues propel themselves for a final charge for finals? To do that they’ll need to find at least two wins against top four locks Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Collingwood. They’ll also need to overcome the strong home form of Fremantle and Gold Coast. It does seem just too much despite a much improved effort last round.

Can Patrick Cripps and the Blues make a charge for the finals? Picture: Michael Klein

16. HAWTHORN

Played: 14, Won: 4, Lost: 20, Points: 16, Percentage: 75.1

R16: Carlton, MCG (L)

R17: GWS Giants, GS (L)

R18: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)

R19: Richmond, MCG (L)

R20: St Kilda, Marvel (L)

R21: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R22: Western Bulldogs, UTAS (L)

R23: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R24: Fremantle, MCG (L)

Predicted Finish: 16th (5-18)

The Hawks have shown they can beat anyone on any day if they turn up. Sunday’s performance against the Suns wasn’t one of those days so it makes it hard to predict how they’ll finish. They should definitely beat the Roos in round 18 but from there, it’s anyone’s guess.

17. NORTH MELBOURNE

Played: 14, Won: 2, Lost: 12, Points: 8, Percentage: 69.6

R16: Adelaide, AO (L)

R17: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

R18: Hawthorn, Marvel (L)

R19: St Kilda, Marvel (L)

R20: West Coast, Optus (W)

R21: Melbourne, BA (L)

R22: Essendon, Marvel (L)

R23: Richmond, MCG (L)

R24: Gold Coast, BA (L)

Predicted Finish: 17th (3-20)

Round 18 against the Hawks and round 20 against the Eagles will be two fixtures North fans will have pencilled in as potential wins after an improving last month under Brett Ratten. The Hawks’ best might be too good for the Roos but they should be good enough to defeat the Eagles away.

18. WEST COAST

Played: 14, Won: 1, Lost: 13, Points: 4, Percentage: 47.3

R15: Sydney, SCG (L)

R16: St Kilda, Optus (L)

R17: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R18: Richmond, Optus (L)

R19: Carlton, Marvel (L)

R20: North Melbourne, Optus (L)

R21: Essendon, Marvel (L)

R22: Fremantle, Optus (L)

R23: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)

R24: Adelaide, Optus (L)

Predicted Finish: 18th (1-22)

What more is there to say about the Eagles. They’ve been ravaged by injuries, have zero confidence and their coach and CEO are under extreme pressure. It’s hard to predict any wins for a side facing that predicament.

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (20-3)

2. Port Adelaide (20-3)

3. Melbourne (17-6)

4. Brisbane (16-7)

5. Western Bulldogs (14-9)

6. Adelaide (13-10)*

7. Geelong (13-10)*

8. Fremantle (12-11)

9. Richmond (11-1-11)

10. St Kilda (11-12)*

11. Essendon (11-12)*

12. Gold Coast (11-12)*

13. Sydney (10-13)

14. Carlton (9-1-13)

15. GWS Giants (9-14)

16. Hawthorn (5-18)

17. North Melbourne (3-20)

18. West Coast (1-22)

*percentage could change finishing spots

Originally published as Run Home: Every AFL club’s last nine weeks, final predicted ladder