Patrick Dangerfield warning: Brownlow favourites don’t always win

PATRICK Dangerfield has all but got next week’s Brownlow Medal in his back pocket. But favourites don’t always win. Just ask Gary Ablett.

Patrick Dangerfield is favourite for the Brownlow.

IF YOU believe every footy expert, media award and the bookmakers, Patrick Dangerfield should already by clearing a spot on his pool room wall for his newly-minted Brownlow Medal.

Dangerfield finished seven votes clear of second-placed Dustin Martin in the Herald Sun Player of the Year Award, won the AFL Coaches Award by 28 votes and the AFL Players Association MVP by 926. In the latter two awards (which admittedly use slightly different voting systems to the Charles Brownlow Trophy), Adelaide’s Rory Sloane finished second, and he isn’t even eligible for the Brownlow.

SCROLL DOWN TO SEE HOW FAVOURITES HAVE FARED ON BROWNLOW NIGHT PLUS DANGERFIELD’S 10 POSSIBLE THREE-VOTE GAMES IN 2016

He is $1.22 with TAB to win, the shortest-priced favourite at any time during a season or on the day of the count (last year Nat Fyfe was $1.40 after Round 8 before starting the count a $2 favourite).

TAB is holding $610,000 on the Brownlow this year and almost $300,000 of that is on Danger.

Patrick Dangerfield has the Brownlow in the bag, right? Not so fast.

In other words, we may as well him Danger the medal now and call the whole thing off.

The only problem is the Brownlow doesn’t always work that way.

Just ask Geoff Raines. The star centreman won the Richmond best-and-fairest in 1980, the Tigers’ last premiership year, and was a raging favourite in the Brownlow. His vote tally that night? Zero.

BROWNLOW TRACKER: PREVIEW EVERY GAME NOW

He blames the result on “some kind of conspiracy”.

“If you don’t get a vote, something funny has gone on. But I can’t prove that. Kelvin Templeton was a worthy medallist,” Raines said in The Final Story — 1980, a documentary on the Grand Final.

“I played on ‘Gubby’ Allan at the ’G against Fitzroy. I think I kicked three goals and had 34 touches. He said it was one of the best games he had seen a centreman play and I played on him. He was absolutely astonished I didn’t get any votes.”

Dangerfield’s Perfect 10

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There are plenty of more recent examples. In 2002 Luke Darcy started the count as favourite but finished equal sixth, five votes behind Brisbane’s Simon Black.

Gary Ablett started a $2.30 favourite in both 2007 and 2008 but didn’t win either count, with outsiders Jimmy Bartel ($10) and Adam Cooney ($13) saluting.

Dane Swan was the equal shortest-priced favourite in the past decade in 2010 but finished third behind Chris Judd ($15) and Ablett.

Could it happen again?

Gary Ablett Jr misses out in 2008.

2016 BROWNLOW ODDS

$1.22 Patrick Dangerfield

$9 Dustin Martin

$11 Luke Parker

$13 Marcus Bontempelli

$21 Dan Hannebery

$21 Luke Shuey

$26 Joel Selwood

$26 Sam Mitchell

$26 Jack Steven

odds: TAB

YEAR	FAVOURITE	PRICE	WINNER
1998	Wayne CAREY (NM)	$2.50	Robert HARVEY ($2.85)
1999	Shane CRAWFORD (HAW)	$1.50	CRAWFORD
2000	Anthony KOUTOUFIDES (CARL)	$2.75	Shane WOEWODIN ($13)
2001	Andrew MCLEOD (ADEL)	$2.35	Jason AKERMANIS ($15)
2002	Luke DARCY (WB)	$3.25	Simon BLACK ($10)
2003	Nathan BUCKLEY (COLL)	$3	BUCKLEY/GOODES ($8.50)/RICCIUTO ($8.50)
2004	Warren TREDREA (PORT)	$3	Chris JUDD ($4.50)
2005	Ben COUSINS (WCE)	$2.10	COUSINS
2006	Adam GOODES (SYD)	$2.70	GOODES
2007	Gary ABLETT (GEEL)	$2.30	Jimmy BARTEL ($10)
2008	Gary ABLETT (GEEL)	$2.30	Adam COONEY ($13)
2009	Gary ABLETT (GEEL)	$3	ABLETT
2010	Dane SWAN (COLL)	$2	Chris JUDD ($15)
2011	Chris JUDD (CARL)	$2.10	Dane SWAN ($7)
2012	Jobe WATSON (ESS)	$4.50	WATSON
2013	Gary ABLETT (GC)	$1.65	ABLETT
2014	Joel SELWOOD (GEEL)	$2.50	Matt PRIDDIS ($41)
2015	Nat FYFE (FREM)	$2	FYFE

Originally published as Patrick Dangerfield warning: Brownlow favourites don’t always win