Wreck It Ralph: The big questions and looming decisions ahead of the AFL trade and free agency period
Jeremy McGovern will be 32 next April. With a second flag at the Eagles out of the question, a Victorian club with finals ambition could swoop.
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Tarryn Thomas’ future, the No.1 value proposition in the trade period and a sleeper who might have the most talent of the young mids looking for new homes.
Jon Ralph assesses the trade and free agency landscape ahead in his Wreck It Ralph trade and draft primer.
1. The uncertain futures
We made the journey to the MCG in round 23 so the kids could take in the Jack Riewoldt- Trent Cotchin farewell tour.
Really, I was there to say a pre-emptive goodbye to Dustin Martin.
At that stage, the jungle drums were deafening that Martin was open to a move to Gold Coast …. and the Suns were keen on him.
As it turns out, the Suns have gone a little cold.
But Martin is yet to meet with manager Ralph Carr for his post-season catch-up to sort out what his medium-term future looks like.
The rugrats took an incredible amount of wrangling – don’t they always – so it was a rare stat-free and radio commentary-free afternoon.
There were two players who soared above all else for their class and impact in a game of meaningless possessions.
Martin was engaged and involved – and just bloody spectacular.
And yet Tarryn Thomas was just as breathtaking as North Melbourne kicked away early with the 23 year-old mixing centre-square clearances with clever goal nous when he was isolated forward.
On that day, Harry Sheezel had 37 possessions off half back and yet Thomas clearly upstaged the eventual Rising Star winner, screaming ‘match-winner’ with every crisp possession.
Three weeks on, as Richmond and North Melbourne plot their off-season strategies – one hanging onto past glories, another keen to throw off the mantle as footy’s worst team – the game remains stuck in my head.
Why?
Because in teams with few real match-winners, Richmond and North Melbourne need Martin and Thomas to stay around to fulfil contacts next year more than ever.
Imagine Richmond’s next coach going into the 2024 season without Martin, effectively coaching without his most dangerous forward-line weapon?
It’s impossible to contemplate, so Richmond needs to do what it needs to sign him up past 2024, keep him content, and let him play out his dotage at Punt Road.
On Monday the Roos secured one of the few off-field wins when Thomas committed to the club for the upcoming season.
There is no doubt he looked around - and as many as half of the AFL’s clubs had inquired into his services given his incredible talent.
But the bottom line is this: the Roos can’t continue the doom loop.
They can’t finish 17th, 18th, 18th and 17th in the past four years and yet continue to have their best talent like Jason Horne-Francis and Tarryn Thomas pilfered from them no matter the trade return.
Finally they caught a break when his manager Ben Williams told the club over the weekend he would honour the final year of his deal.
In future the Roos need to continue playing hard ball with players like Thomas given they cannot have the perception Arden Street is easy to escape from.
Draw that line in the sand, and if it is that he wants out when uncontracted at the end of next year, he can only be worth more from a trade perspective.
North Melbourne would have every right to feel upset if he did explore the market, given how hard they have worked with him, how many second chances he has been afforded.
A player with lesser talent might easily have been discarded, but at least the Roos can say he is their problem and they have worked hard to make him a better human being.
Premierships have never been won by choirboys and cleanskins but it is interesting to think of how those clubs – full of “champions of change” and new AFLW teams – would have pitched giving away a top-10 pick on a player with his history.
So finally the Roos get the chance they didn’t with Horne-Francis to build on a year of development as they try to dodge becoming the new GWS - a fertile hunting ground for rivals to poach talent.
So we get to see these coming weeks where rival clubs stand on Thomas, and whether the Roos can resist becoming the new GWS – a fertile hunting ground for rivals to poach talent.
2. Saints list reset
Ross Lyon is falling in love with his list and all the possibilities it contains.
Call it his anti-Dan Hannebery moment.
When he arrived at St Kilda, the message to player managers across the nation was clear – Ross wants one of everything.
A key back, a key forward, a star mid, and he might be prepared to pay up for them.
He was open about his bemusement that St Kilda paid the same $14 million in salary cap compared to a Geelong side so vastly superior to his mob.
And yet as he made clear last week, St Kilda is going back to the draft and doing it in a big way.
They might make some targeted acquisitions – and the Liam Stocker success story gives him the chance to do something similar if the Saints can land Carlton’s Paddy Dow.
But even if Lyon is doing a John Northey by overcooking the us-versus-them narrative in reinforcing the criticism of St Kilda this year, by any measure, his coaching has been elite.
So instead of paying $800,000 for a big splash in the trade space Lyon’s coaching will combine with more elite drafting, and who knows where it will take the Saints in 60 games?
Making finals gives him a free pass to build slowly, so consider that forward line in 2026 with Max King, mid-forward Mattaes Phillipou with 70 games under his belt, Mitch Owens as a 22-year-old and Anthony Caminiti having succeeded Tim Membrey as a key target.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera will be a sight to behold charging off half back by then, if he isn’t already.
Teams win premierships by combining elite drafting with great development and A-grade coaching.
St Kilda is a fair way from a premiership, but if Ross the Boss ever considered a quick fix at Moorabbin, the season of expiration has convinced him otherwise.
3. $600,000 is the new $500,000.
Pies fans cranky that their club splashed out $600,000 on Dan McStay didn’t realise there was effectively a 20 per cent premium paid because he was a free agent.
Would they prefer he was paid a $480,000 contract in a deal that saw the Pies give up their 2023 second-rounder, which Collingwood could use on Bobby Hill instead?
So the free agency premium is real.
Now fans have to get their head around deals about to be handed to Esava Ratugolea and Ben McKay.
The AFL’s pay deal will give players potential pay rises of 30 per cent over four years, with the first season of that deal taking in 2023 as players secure back-pay after playing this year under an old arrangement.
It means Ratugolea could easily be paid $600,000 a season, despite playing a fortnight in the VFL in rounds 18 and 19.
$600,000 for a VFL player?
Any deal he eventually strikes with the Hawks or Port Adelaide will reflect that 30 per cent increase in coming seasons.
It’s just what clubs will pay to get rivals out of their current clubs.
It is the AFL’s inflationary effect, in the same manner $1 million contracts will be the new $850,000.
4. What will the Dees do?
Melbourne’s recruiting record is so good it has the right to have a free swing like Hawthorn did with Cyril Rioli.
Rioli famously went as late as pick 12 in the 2007 national draft, and Hawthorn could take that perceived risk because it had already stockpiled stars including Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead.
So the Demons can swing hard by attempting to secure Gold Coast’s pick 4 – packaging it with their own first round. selection – to see if the Eagles bite on the No.1 pick that would secure the Demons Harley Reid.
But if not, they can take a risk with a 172cm small forward like Nick Watson that other clubs might baulk at.
It’s what happens when you have nailed so many early picks – Christian Petracca, Christian Salem, Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw – as well as the mid and late-draft picks as this masthead detailed.
It is a glorious position to be in when you can pick the eyes out of the draft with risky early calls or even give away your entire draft hand for a single player in Reid and no fan would bat an eyelid.
5. Could the Dogs do something bold?
Marcus Bontempelli couldn’t help raving about Tom Stewart when asked which player he would like from the All Australian team not long after his own selection as vice-captain.
Bontempelli said he would love a player with Stewart’s intercept and disposals gifts in his team.
That being said, why the hell wouldn’t he call his list manager Sam Power to ask about the one who could be available in Jeremy McGovern this year?
McGovern has recently signed a two-year deal, but if Adam Simpson is so devoted to a new development path he would have to consider a trade.
The Dogs are saving their cap space for Bailey Smith, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Aaron Naughton and Tim English’s contracts expiring in 2024.
But it might be the best million bucks they ever spend given he could be the difference between another spectacularly average season and one of mighty achievement.
One which sees Naughton and English keen to stay around for the fun.
They have the picks (10 and 17) and they have the cash.
They also have shown they are prepared to offer two and three year deals for ageing interceptors who have 60 great games left – like Liam Jones.
They are keen to get higher into the draft to ensure pick 10 isn’t swallowed up by a bid for father-son Jordan Croft.
But would Dogs fans accept them giving up pick 17 for McGovern given that pick will likely drift back to the early 20s by draft night?
Especially when it is apparent the injury-prone Sam Darcy is some way off becoming a first-team regular, given his inability to get out onto the park regularly.
6. Why aren‘t clubs more ruthless these days?
Hawthorn has the third pick in the pre-season draft.
It has the salary cap space to front-end a contract to dissuade a West Coast or North Melbourne from taking Esava Ratugolea.
If he does choose the Hawks, why not try to drag him through the pre-season draft?
At the very least, use it as a carrot to low-ball Geelong on a deal.
Back in the day a club might have said to Ratugolea he’s worth $700,000 a season if he is prepared to jump ship through the pre-season draft and $600,000 if they have to offer a pick.
But if that option was open to them they could scoff at the Cats demand of a future first-round pick.
Not many clubs can ask for a first-rounder for a player who has featured in the VFL so recently.
The Hawks will show their compassion for Tyler Brockman by agreeing to a trade request given his family circumstances.
But are clubs like Hawthorn still cut-throat enough to use mechanisms like the pre-season draft – or the threat of it – to secure players in advantageous trade deals.
7. Is Paddy Dow the cut-price recruit of the trade period?
Asked a recently retired Carlton player last week why Dow had stagnated for so long and the answer was he could never translate training form into AFL form.
He would dominate training and scratch matches then go quiet in the real stuff.
Dow still seems likely to leave the Blues, but he has finally made the step jump.
His last four games – 22 possessions, seven clearances then 20 possessions, four clearances and seven tackles, then 24 possessions and seven clearances, before 21 possessions and eight clearances against GWS.
If he stays at Carlton, it is safe in the knowledge his midfield time could again be limited.
Carlton won’t want the world for him, but there aren’t many players like him on the market.
8. Is Elijah Hollands close behind as an untapped talent?
The top-10 pick played nine largely forgettable AFL games this year, and is joined by Brandan Parfitt, Dev Robertson, Dow, Finn Macrae as young mids potentially on the move.
Hollands has it all – some swagger, an absolutely elite tank, ball-winning ability, a nose for goal.
He has only really put it together once in his 14 AFL games with 23 possessions, 521 metres gained, two goals and 116 ranking points.
Some players have a component of their game that finds them out at AFL level, but Hollands has it all.
Will someone lure him out of the Suns to see if he can put it together in his fourth season of AFL footy?
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