Where does your AFL club sit: Can Essendon bounce back after emerging from turbulent stretch?

Two years after Essendon had its greatest ever draft hand the club appeared to be cutting corners on player development. Now the problem finally appears to be fixed.

Archie Perkins of the Bombers. Picture: Pockett/Getty

Brad Scott has a big task on his hands after crossing over to the Bombers from AFL HQ. After finishing 15th in a disastrous 2022, Essendon will be hoping for a better result in 2023 and have added some fringe players from other clubs in Will Setterfield and Sam Weideman who should make their best side. Although, finishing higher on the ladder may not be as high a priority as developing their core group of young players.

ESSENDON

Coach: Brad Scott

Captain: TBC (Andy McGrath or Zach Merrett likely to replace Dyson Heppell)

New coach Brad Scott will be looking to get plenty of time into his youngsters.

President David Barham told the club’s Annual General Meeting: “To make change you must have courage”.

Well, that might make Barham the off-field equivalent of Glenn Archer because the club’s 150th birthday party season turned into a bloodbath.

First, Barham ousted Paul Brasher and then savagely sacked coach Ben Rutten at the end of the season. Resignations from two chief executives (Xavier Campbell and Andrew Thorburn) and board members Simon Madden, Peter Allen and Sean Wellman followed. Brasher’s internal review of the football department, completed mid-season and authored by football manager Josh Mahoney, identified the need to create a head of development and general manager of performance.

Those jobs were filled by Cam Roberts and Daniel McPherson in October. Barham’s external review, which was outsourced to Ernst and Young and cost several hundred thousand dollars, included 120 surveys, 80 interviews and 700 billable hours.

That exhaustive research delivered a meaty document the Bombers hope will serve as their blueprint for success after 18 years and counting without a single finals victory. Lost in the headlines from a clumsy off-season was the fact that this was a crisis conceived on the grass — not in the boardroom.

The Bombers started 2-10 and observers thought they played a poor defensive system where players looked confused and disconnected. Against Sydney they laid 30 tackles and were mocked by Luke Parker.

They regressed defensively again and went 4-25 against teams who played finals across the past three years. Finalists averaged 101.6 points against Rutten’s team in 2022 and the 2-10 record was flattered by a win against a Covid-stricken Brisbane.

The Crichton Medal was poorly attended and, while winner Peter Wright was a good story, it’s worth noting that not even the great Matthew Lloyd ever won that medal. Brasher, Campbell and Mahoney might’ve been aligned to Rutten, but Barham’s decision to blow up the Bombers was probably the right one.

Where do they finish in 2023?

Development is the buzzword at Bomberland. When you hear Scott, Mahoney and Barham all talk about how they’ve gone from 2.5 development coaches to 5.5 you get the feeling that, unlike 30 years ago, these ‘Baby Bombers’ won’t be pinching a premiership.

That means the drought between finals victories (which is hurtling towards 7000 days) is likely to turn 20 in 2024. Essendon’s 2023 list is the third-youngest in the AFL (average age 23.5) and the fourth-least experienced (average games 54.9) while in 2022 the Bombers were younger than their opponent in every game they played.

Encouragingly, the club had to run unofficial training sessions in November because all of the players rocked up to pre-season early when they could’ve still been on holidays and the added development coaches should create greater clarity for players looking to upskill.

For example, if Kane Baldwin or Sam Weideman wanted a lesson on contested marking? Go to Travis Cloke. Want to work on your defensive craft? See Michael Hurley. It’s peculiar that two years after Essendon had its greatest ever draft hand — three top-10 picks — it appeared to be cutting corners on player development.

Surely maximising the careers of their talented teenagers should’ve been the priority, but at least it is now. So while another season in the bottom six wouldn’t be a surprise, the strides taken by the likes of Archie Perkins, Nik Cox, Zach Reid, Ben Hobbs, Nic Martin and Elijah Tsatas will largely determine the success of the season.

If they all go boom then Adrian Dodoro would’ve built the Bombers a base to launch a premiership assault for the next decade. They’ve also banked considerable salary cap space that they can splurge on a free agent in the next couple of years. Scott’s selection will be fascinating.

For example, Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, Ben Hobbs, Archie Perkins, Elijah Tsatas, Will Setterfield and Jye Caldwell can’t all fit in the midfield. So does Scott just play the kids over the likes of Shiel, who turns 30 before round 1?

Similarly, do they just lock Zach Reid in at full back? He was given valuable minutes on Lance Franklin, Tom Lynch and Harry McKay this year and then bizarrely dropped with the season already shot.

And what does Sam Weideman’s arrival mean for fringe forward Harrison Jones?

Spiritual leader Mason Redman could be an outsider for the captaincy at Essendon.

Biggest improver in 2022

Al eyes are on 2020 draftees Archie Perkins, Nik Cox and Zach Reid after perhaps plateauing, albeit Cox was sidelined with a nasty foot injury. Supporters want to see those kids flourish however Essendon did not have a single player named in the 44-player All-Australian squad this year and so high-end improvement is also important. Tipping Mason Redman to not only make the AA squad, but the final 22 next year.

Redman won Essendon’s most improved award in 2022, but perhaps he was a little stiff to miss out on a podium finish in the best-and-fairest. In what was a dark season, Redman shone brightly with his attack on the footy and creativity as an intercepting weapon.

He just makes things happen, like bombing the go-ahead goal in the final quarter against Sydney at the MCG. Jack Riewoldt, while watching highlights of Redman on AFL360 one night, declared he was a star.

Good call, Jack. The early word from summer trackwatchers is that Redman, along with Zach Merrett, are flying. Scott has pumped up Weideman, too, for his attitude and intensity. Mid-season draftee Massimo D’Ambrosio admittedly struggled to run out AFL games, but should be far better equipped after his first AFL summer.

Sam Draper still hasn’t reached his full potential.

X-factor

Sam Draper — a bonus perhaps netted from the drugs saga, given Draper was taken at pick No. 1 in the rookie draft after the 2016 wooden spoon wipe-out year — looks ready to announce himself as one of the premier big men in the game.

From the mullet to the moustache to the goal of the year gong it is easy to see why Draper has cult hero status after just 43 games.

The junior soccer gun who grew up in England probably did far earlier. St Kilda offered this bloke a four-year contract worth $1.7 million before he had played an AFL game and when he had ruptured an ACL. That says plenty about his potential.

The prospect of the Bombers one day re-emerging as a contender and Draper firing up a crowd of 90,000 in a big MCG final is tantalising. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has made a mighty start to his comeback pre-season, but still has a lot of conditioning to do to get back in the starting team after his premature retirement.

Fascinated, too, to see what born matchwinner Jake Stringer’s fifth coach does for him.

Coach status

Scott signed a four-year contract that will see Brad Scott in charge at Tullamarine into his 50s. Ideal appointment for a club searching for stability.

Who is in last year of contract?

Alastair Lord, Andrew Phillips, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Ben Hobbs, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Cian McBride, Darcy Parish, Dyson Heppell, Harrison Jones, Jye Menzie, Kane Baldwin, Mason Redman, Massimo D’Ambrosio, Nick Bryan, Patrick Voss, Peter Wright, Rhett Montgomerie, Sam Weideman, Will Snelling

Outs from 2022

Cody Brand, Tom Cutler, Josh Eyre, Brayden Ham, Tom Hird, Garrett McDonagh, Alec Waterman (all delisted), Aaron Francis (traded to Sydney), Michael Hurley, Devon Smith (both retired)

Jayden Davey with dad Alwyn Davey Sr and Alwyn Davey Jr after the twins were selected by Essendon in the 2022 draft. Picture: Essendon Football Club

Ins for 2023

Will Setterfield (traded from Carlton), Sam Weideman (traded from Melbourne), Elijah Tsatas (No. 5 pick), Lewis Hayes (No. 25 pick), Alwyn Davey Jr (No. 45 pick), Jayden Davey (No. 54 pick), Rhett Montgomerie (rookie), Anthony Munkara (Category B rookie)

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Originally published as Where does your AFL club sit: Can Essendon bounce back after emerging from turbulent stretch?