AFL Trade 2023: The latest on Ben McKay’s move to Essendon and the free agency market

The AFL has confirmed clubs are given no advance warning of free agency compensation, meaning Essendon must wait and hope its offer is enough for North to let Ben McKay go.

The AFL will give Essendon and North Melbourne no advance warning of the Ben McKay free agency compensation pick as the Dons prepare to land their free agency triple play, starting on Friday.

The only impediment to McKay landing at the Hangar would be if the Dons handed him a contract that failed to hit a first-round compensation pick trigger – handing the Roos the No.3 overall draft selection.

The Dons expect to secure Roos interceptor McKay, St Kilda mid-forward Jade Gresham and unrestricted free agent Todd Goldstein as they attempt to bolster their list.

Essendon is one of many clubs that believe equalisation through the draft is dead – if clubs cannot add free agents or make smart trades they will flounder in the middle ranks of the ladder.

This masthead revealed this week the Ben McKay offer of five or more years does not hit $800,000 of guaranteed cash – but his age of 25 will help under the league’s complicated free agency model.

What compensation pick will North Melbourne get for Ben McKay? Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos

The league on Thursday attempted to explain the model on the eve of free agency’s first day, stating there was absolutely no discretion to hand clubs better picks for departing free agency.

Clubs scoffed when battling Melbourne was handed pick 3 for departing free agent James Frawley, but the league’s formula has remained unchanged since the advent of the player movement mechanism.

The AFL’s player movement manager Ned Guy and football boss Laura Kane also made clear clubs could not ask the league about whether a contract about to be lodged hit a first or second-round compensation threshold.

They said clubs had no line of sight or advanced warning of the free agency compensation.

So Essendon will have to ensure its deal is big enough to deliver the Roos pick 3 or they will match a bid, with the Dons unable to fine-tune their offer with AFL advice.

The league also confirmed the free agency compensation was based on the average wage of any contract over two seasons.

So while McKay’s deal will be five or more years, Essendon could, in theory, offer Gresham a two or three-year deal on around $800,000 if they are keen to trigger first-round compensation for St Kilda.

A longer deal does not help secure greater compensation, as long as it is of at least two seasons.

Jade Gresham is also set to land at the Lions. Picture: Michael Klein

The league confirmed there was no rule against St Kilda then trading that pick, or a later selection, back to Essendon if the Dons jettisoned 30-year-old midfielder Dylan Shiel.

The AFL lines up every contract for players over 25 years and then sorts their guaranteed contract into an order based on a 1-100 points rating.

The league also factors in a departing free agent’s age – a 25-year-old secures greater compensation than a 30-year-old.

Free agents whose new contract is in the top five per cent of those deals qualify for first-round free agency, while those whose contracts rank from 6-15 per cent secure end of first-round compensation.

But Guy on Thursday made clear the league’s compensation model was not expected to provide full compensation for clubs.

Originally published as AFL Trade 2023: The latest on Ben McKay’s move to Essendon and the free agency market