AFL season predictions 2021: Fox Footy jury ranks every team
Two St Kilda greats are bullish on an emerging Saint who is set for more midfield minutes. And one likens his X-Factor to two of the games’ biggest names.
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Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson joins Fox Footy experts Nick Riewoldt, David King, Leigh Montagna and Jordan Lewis to give their club-by-club predictions for 2021.
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ADELAIDE
ROBBO: The Crows won three from four coming home. Jordan, does that mean anything coming into this season?
JORDAN: I think it helps their mentality to get through the pre-season and to not fear 2021. They’ve drafted really well with Riley Thilthorpe and Luke Pedlar, so they’ve got a key position player. My question I suppose with Adelaide is what they do with Tex Walker next year. And I think it’s good they’ve kept him around now that they’ve got this young key position player coming through to learn off Tex. Their issue last year was their midfield. They just lacked depth — so to lose Brad Crouch, and to have to play (Rory) Laird and (Brodie) Smith through that, where they’re not necessarily fitted to that position, I think will be the question mark. Whether they play Laird in there to add a bit of speed, or whether they play him at halfback where he is best suited.
ROBBO: Do you like their style of football, Joey?
JOEY: It’s an attacking style and I don’t mind it. And it seems like they’ve drafted players accordingly. We know where they’re at. We know they’re developing and a young side and will take a number of years, but I think the last six weeks of 2020 will really help with their belief.
ROOEY: Is it finally a clean slate for them? Because it feels like there has been noise every year since 2017. It just feels like there is no expectation and no noise. Even in 2020, there was still the talk about the camp and the fact they’ve blown it up. I think now Matty Nicks finally gets some clear air. The question I have about Adelaide is if it’s more what we saw at the end of 2020, then everyone can wear that? But if it’s what we saw at the start of 2020 where they couldn’t execute basic handovers and they were non-competitive, is Adelaide the sort of town where the pressure and the ferocity of scrutiny will ramp up really quickly? Particularly if Port Adelaide across town continues to do well.
ROBBO: Verdict, Jordan?
JORDAN: I still think they’ll be bottom four. I think they still need to go through more of a rebuild and try and find that X-factor and that star that can potentially build their next 10 years of success.
BRISBANE LIONS
ROBBO: Brisbane pick up Joe Daniher. If he can get his body right, how much does that separate them from being a preliminary final team to a grand final team?
ROOEY: Well, that was their issue in the preliminary final again. Their forwards didn’t really fire a shot. Eric Hipwood had some moments, but he, Daniel McStay, Charlie Cameron and Oscar McInerney didn’t really impact the scoreboard. I really like Hipwood as a player. McStay, I’m not really sure if he’ll make it as a forward or not. Daniher is clearly the missing piece, but can you get him on the park? It’s a big unknown for me, but if it’s the best version of him, then he’s the sort of player that can tip them over.
JOEY: Collectively I think they tick every box. They’re cherry ripe, and adding Daniher to that forward mix is the only missing piece. I think we forget Marcus Adams will come back into the side and he’s a very good intercept mark. Although I feel a lot falls on McInerney to stay healthy as he becomes really important to them without Stefan Martin.
KINGY: For me, their prelim loss in 2020 has got to hurt. It was the perfect opportunity for them last year to win the flag and they didn’t get to the grand final. I personally don’t know if they’re nasty enough. You look at the great teams like the unsociable Hawks that played on the edge. They have Mitch Robinson, but outside of Mitch who really flies the flag when it gets willing? I’m not saying go out and bash people up, but suspensions for great teams aren’t a problem. I don’t know if they’re nasty enough and I hope they haven’t taken on the persona of the coach.
ROBBO: I spoke to Chris Fagan and he was bitterly disappointed at losing that thinking they could have won it, but I think he’s aware they need to get more aggressive. Verdict, Kingy?
KINGY: I have them in the top four. I like them, and I loved them at stages in 2020. I just think they need to play with more of an edge. Port Adelaide is bringing it, Geelong is bringing it and Richmond have had it for three or four years. I think all the great sides play at a level of toughness when the game really happens with a moment that shifts the course of a meandering game. Who’s that for Brisbane? 2021 will show us.
CARLTON
ROBBO: There is a real buzz around Carlton, but do you think they deserve it? They bring in Zac Williams, they bring in Adam Saad and everyone is thinking we’re going to watch them charge through the MCG in September. Is it that simple and do they have the game style to get them there?
ROOEY: I think they do, and I think they’re going to be the big story of 2021 whichever way it goes. If they get rolling and they turn into a bit of a juggernaut again, they’re a big club so they’ll be a massive story. And if it goes the other way, they’re going to be a big story because the heat will come. I think now they’ve turned that corner where they’ve got enough players, they’ve recruited for now and they’ve got enough talent within their list to make a big impact. I’m going down the positive path with Carlton. I think they’re going to have a big impact on 2021.
JOEY: I’m a little bit more sceptical than Rooey. Their sweet spot is now. I went through their best 22 and 14 of them are going to be 27 or older. They are not young anymore, so if they don’t play finals this year, where are they at as a club?
ROBBO: Where do they play Tom De Koning when he returns from injury, Jordan?
JORDAN: Good question, and where do they play Mitch McGovern? I watch Carlton play and I think they work too hard so they defend one-on-one, which is hard. They’re doing a lot of kilometres unnecessarily because their system isn’t in place. I think their biggest improvement is how do they set up forward of the ball and do they go with three big talls? Because I feel like that’s their Achilles heel.
JOEY: And you are not going to get the best version of Charlie Curnow in 2021.
KINGY: So who is Charlie Curnow? He’s played 58 games and in 37 of those he’s kicked one goal or less. Only seven times has he kicked two or more goals, and he was mooted as the No. 1 player in the competition. He hasn’t played since June 2019, so it’s a lot to carry on one guy that he has to be the answer. And everyone says when he comes back, we’re going to go.
JOEY: Question for you, Robbo. Is Patty Cripps’ best football ahead of him or behind him?
ROBBO: I think behind him.
JOEY: Rooey?
ROOEY: I think it can be in front of him because I think when you talk about the recruitment of Saad to halfback, Newman back at halfback and if Williams can go into the midfield, I think that support will mean Cripps will be able to take a bit of that burden off himself.
ROBBO: Verdict, Rooey?
ROOEY: I’m glass half full now on Carlton. Big story either way, but I think they’ll play finals.
COLLINGWOOD
ROBBO: When you have such a tumultuous end to the 2020 season, are there any remnants that last into the next year? Are they starting behind the eight ball or is it all in the past and are they forging ahead?
KINGY: I think it’s going to be a huge year and this is the start of a rebuild. I think they’ve got to the end and they’ve maximised that last wave, and that group for now needs to take a bit of a back seat and get the next group in the door. Clearly they’ve gone back to the draft, letting go who they let go late last year. The salary cap maxed out. What that means for Buckley will be the talking point of 2021.
They went from nine wins to nine-and-half wins, to a Grand Final, to a prelim to this year just getting into the eight and winning against the odds in Perth. Where does that leave you? Are you going up or down? I think they’ve made the decision they need to go back to go forward again, and they want to do it as quickly as they can.
ROOEY: Have they made that decision by design or has mismanagement led them to that realisation that they had no choice but to make that decision?
KINGY: If you get to a grand final and you’re 90 seconds from winning it, I think there are flow-on effects after that. You max out your salary cap, you may have one or two more opportunities and then at some point you’ve got to cut the cord. Pendlebury and Sidebottom are 33 and 30, so time’s ticking. Do you give them another chance? That’s probably what they’re doing.
JOEY: I personally think distractions are overrated amongst players at football clubs and players move on pretty quick. I think the pressure will come if they start losing and Kingy summed it up really well. There’s going to be a lot of talk about Collingwood in 2021, so how’s that going to impact the team?
KINGY:There’s no way you can let the players that they did walk out the door and say you’re still full tilt for a premiership. No way.
JORDAN: I’m a little bit glass half full on Collingwood. I think in terms of what happened in the off-season, the transparency with us wasn’t great. If the transparency is the same in what they did publicly to what they did inside the club, that’ll rip them apart and that will be evident in the first half of the season. If they have been transparent with the players, I think you can move on quickly as a playing group. I’d be surprised if they didn’t play finals and I don’t think they’re near the rebuild stage.
KINGY: The problem they’ve got is the most important Magpie this year is who they don’t want to be the most important Magpie, and that’s Jordan De Goey. He is everything to them forward of centre and when he goes in as a strike midfielder, he’s unbelievable. Since 2018 no one has kicked more goals at Collingwood than him and they don’t want that to be the case. If he fails, I think they fail.
ROBBO: Verdict, Joey?
JOEY: Fringe top eight, I have them just outside.
ROOEY: Sixth to 10th.
JORDAN: I’m six to 10th but think they’ll play finals.
KINGY: I think they’re out of the eight, and I think at Round 10 the club has to make a decision whether Buckley is committed to the rebuild and are they committed to Buckley?
ESSENDON
ROBBO: Kingy said Collingwood was rebuilding. Jordan, do you think the Bombers are as well?
JORDAN: There’s no surer thing than the Bombers rebuilding. They’ll be bottom four and I can’t see them improving drastically on last year. I think they need time to transition to the new coach. I know he’s been there for 12 months, but from what we heard it could have been done better. They’ve got a new coach and they’ve drafted some kids that have some spunk, which I like, and key position players, too, so you can see direction. What they need to do and implement in the pre-season is an obvious game style because in 2020 they chopped and changed. But they’re certainly in the rebuild phase.
JOEY: I’m with Jordie, they’re playing the long game. They’re three to four years away and if you look at their list profile, they’re 17th for average games going into 2021. They’ve drafted for the long term and I think they have time on their side. Their core group of players are still young enough and we’ll see the best of Essendon in three years’ time.
KINGY: We have to write off 2020 because they just didn’t handle the hub life, but I’m already concerned for Ben Rutten. I think they’ve bumbled their way through the off-season. They say they want to play blue collar football and then they delist the most blue collar player in the AFL in Jacob Townsend. I think they’ve got a massive leadership void. Dyson Heppell doesn’t play often enough and well enough often enough. When was his last big game? I think Smith and Shiel are selfish footballers. They want to be everything for the team, but it’s not great for a leadership point of view.
ROBBO: Who’s the next captain?
KINGY: Everyone tells me McGrath, so maybe the time frame needs to come forward a bit and give the keys over to the next wave. I don’t see what they’ve got to lose. They’ve got a new coach coming in and new messaging, so why not now?
ROBBO: Verdict?
KINGY: I can’t see any success in the short term and this is a long rebuild to be honest. I think they’ve missed their opportunity and they now find themselves stuck in no man’s land. It’s a hard place to get out of.
ROOEY: I agree. Bottom six this year but I think they could bounce quickly. But the work needs to be done now to get the games into their kids. Get 50 games into them as quick as you can.
FREMANTLE
ROBBO: I think in 2020 the Dockers were a team that everyone thought, ‘Gee, they’re going all right’ with the elevation of their kids. I think they got a hold of their team a lot quicker than what most of us thought was going to happen. What are their expectations this year?
KINGY: They’re my bolter for the eight. I think they can win a lot of close games. They’ve trusted the kids last year and given them the experience to go and win a game for them late, which I think will hold them in good stead. It will fast track their youngsters and I love what they’ve done at the draft.
ROBBO: What does that say about the coach, that he will go with the kids in the midfield and leave Mundy and Fyfe out?
KINGY: I think he’s honest, Justin Longmuir. You hear a lot of coaches preach they want to fast track development but they don’t do anything. They don’t create any opportunities or moments for those youngsters. He trusts the group. I think the transitioning of Jesse Hogan out sends a message to the whole group and I love what Longmuir is doing.
ROOEY: It couldn’t have been a more difficult baptism for a coach either in terms of actually trying to press your game style and your plan onto a new group with all the restrictions in place last year. How do you actually instil a game plan into a group first up with those kinds of limitations? Yet we still saw it every week. And that will only get more refined with a full off-season. I think they’re on such a great track at the moment.
JORDAN: The simplicity in what they did last year was evident. What I think Fremantle would have said was, ‘OK, we’re going to be time poor this year, we’re going into a hub and we have no time to train. Where can we focus all our energy? We’re young so what’s the most important thing of the foundation we need to set? We need to do our defence so let’s put all our energy on how we defend and not be worried about offence.’ I think 2020 leant itself to that in the way they played. They never got blown out of the water. With the young talent they’ve got coming in, I’m quite bullish about them.
JOEY: I think the reason why Fyfe is playing more forward is they’re thinking in a couple of years when they’re a contender, Fyfe is going to be more of a forward. In this year’s trade period they sat idle because I think they probably realised they’re 12 to 24 months away so they’ll go and try a land a big fish when they think the window is open.
ROBBO: Verdict, Rooey?
ROOEY: I think they’ll be in the range from sixth to 10th, battling to get in the eight. I think they have the potential to get in there but they may be just on the outside. But their trajectory is up.
GEELONG
ROBBO: It is one of the great clichés in football, Joey, but is Geelong all in?
JOEY: *laughs* Are they all in? They are chips all in. And I like the courage to let everyone know it. They were 15 points up at half-time in a grand final and I thought the way they were playing they couldn’t lose, up until when Dustin Martin came out after half-time. We know where they’re at, they’re all in. The fascination will be how the combination works with Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins. We just all presume it’ll all work really well. For so long Geelong have relied on Hawkins as their focal point. Does that take a bit of time to adjust?
ROOEY: I think it’ll work fine. What it does for Hawkins is it allows him I think to continue to do what he did so well in 2020, which is to roam. Gary Rohan as a forward target, he had moments last season but I don’t think he is the type of player you can rely on every week. Whereas when Cameron is feeling it, you can see it within him. I think we’re about to see the best of Jeremy Cameron. We’ve seen some pretty special things over the past half a dozen years, but his arrival at a big football club now with the players and the leadership around him, I think we’re about to see him explode. It shapes as such a difficult forward line to cover now. I love what they’ve done and I’d love to be a Geelong supporter because every year they’re trying to win a flag.
ROBBO: How much of a loss will Harry Taylor be if anything?
JOEY: I think they’ll cover him fine and I think they’ve got a pretty good key defender in Mark Blicavs, who should go back to full-back. I know they keep playing him on the wing and as a second ruck. I still think he is a key defender.
JORDAN: Not with Isaac Smith coming in, when you’ve got a genuine winger who can play nearly 120 minutes. You don’t need Blicavs there, and this allows him to go into defence.
KINGY: I think the most important player at Geelong is Jordan Clark. We know Geelong are there, but speed off the half back flank is what they haven’t had. They haven’t had a game changer and someone who threatens corridors. I think Chris Scott needs to take the brakes off this year.
ROOEY: Boys, how hard is it for a coach when you play a certain way and it’s gotten you so close? How hard is it to not back yourself in or to shift to where you potentially need to go?
JORDAN: Geelong’s game plan feels to me like it’s the most complete game plan in the competition. They have added other ways to score in 2020 so they can score multiple ways. I think you tinker with it. Their midfield has probably been not the greatest because they’ve had to rejig their forward line because Rohan doesn’t perform on a regular basis. So you’ve had to throw Dangerfield down there and take him out of the middle. With Cameron coming in, you’d expect Danger to now play more midfield time and that X-factor in there that they’ve lacked.
ROBBO: Verdict, Jordan?
JORDAN: I think they’re top two. I think the reason why Cameron and Hawkins will work is there is no ego. If you’re the key figure in a forward line and you get another key figure from another side who is their main forward, Hawkins realises this is his chance to win another flag.
GOLD COAST SUNS
ROBBO: Was it a disappointing 2020? And if so, what is the expectation in 2021?
JOEY: I was disappointed with 2020 because I had expectations on Gold Coast. I’m a bit bullish on them and I think they can spike pretty quickly. I like the way they go about it and the way they’re coached. They’re playing a style that can hold up, which is team defence. They still need some time to mature and to continue to evolve, but I think that can come relatively quickly. I think finals may be out of reach this year, but I like the way they’re tracking and they’re not far away.
ROBBO: Five and a half wins in 2020. Can they win nine games this year, Jordan?
JORDAN: I don’t think they can. For me, they’re a great pressure side but they need to find good ball users. And that’s drafting kids who can kick the ball. Touk Miller’s become a good ball user but other than him I still think that’s a massive gap in their game. It’s a pretty good spine for a team that finished 14th with five wins and you can see improvement. Whether they find another four wins and scrape around eighth, I’m still unsure.
ROOEY: You don’t think there will be organic growth from their young players? I think they just get better and I thought their recruiting last year was really smart by getting Ellis and Greenwood in to put some bigger bodies around some of their young players. I think they grow as a group and your point about ball use is well made, but I think with the defensive work and that foundation they’ve laid, I think they need to evolve their game plan.
ROBBO: Verdict, Joey?
JOEY: They’ll miss the eight but they’re the ones I think are the sleepers. Ninth to 13th.
GWS GIANTS
ROBBO: Are the Giants stalling or are they going?
ROOEY: They’re going backwards. Look at the players who have left — Cameron, Corr, Langdon, Williams and Heath Shaw, who was a contributor for them. And who’s arrived? Jesse Hogan is a desperation move and then there’s Braydon Preuss, so they’re not getting better. They still lack an identifiable game style. They’re still playing the talent game, so unless that changes they’re going backwards in a hurry.
JORDAN: I couldn’t agree more. The biggest challenge for Leon Cameron is both game style and then also how do you get these kids to play for each other?
ROBBO: Do you watch GWS play still and see selfish football?
JORDAN: Yes and maybe that comes through because they don’t have an identifiable game style, so there is no connection piece. The biggest challenge is to get them to play together. The Jesse Hogan inclusion really baffles me, it reeks of desperation. I see them stalling and going backwards.
ROBBO: Verdict, Joey?
JOEY: We saw a few years ago when they played on the edge and they were nasty and ruthless, but they still relied on talent a lot of that time. What do they stand for? They’re a fringe top eight side for mine. They still have a lot of talent but they need to drastically change their game style.
JORDAN: For me they will finish near where they finished in 2020, around ninth or 10th.
KINGY: I still think they’re a top-eight team and can finish as high as fifth.
HAWTHORN
ROBBO: Ask anyone over the summer whether the Hawks are coming or going and they look at you blankly. Kingy, what does your gut tell you about the Hawks?
KINGY: It’s unconventional. We’ve never seen this model spike back up and contend for a premiership in the short term from any other club. Minimal draft picks coming in the door and trusting that the likes of Mitchell, Worpel, O’Meara and Shiels will get it done in the middle when in 2020 they were 17th for clearances. They’re not playing the clearance game and they’re no longer getting the forward half intercepts that Alastair Clarkson was famous for. So where does it go to then? They’ve only had 12 national draft selections in the last four years and only four of those in the top 30. Clearly these guys are seriously intelligent people, so there must be some logic behind the scenes to this somewhere, but for the life of me I can’t see it.
ROBBO: Everyone accepts that Clarko is one of the great coaches, but is he also stubborn and saying, ‘I can fix this. You give me some players and I will get this team up and about.’
JOEY: That’s what it feels like it has to be. It’s like the club has so much faith in Clarko that he can do something remarkable with this list. Because if it was any other club and any other coach, we’d be sitting here asking, ‘What is this guy doing? What’s their plan?’ But it’s almost like because it is Clarko, we just all presume he must be thinking something we can’t see.
ROOEY: To what end? That would be my question — if you’re questioning the unconventionality of what they’re doing. Clarko might be able to pull it out and have the coaching performance of the year and they might finish sixth.
JORDAN: If they finish sixth it’s a disaster because it’s where they’ve been since 2016 and 2017. Where you don’t want to finish is around that mid-tier. They’d think, ‘We’ve done quite well here’, and the supporters are satisfied, but who knows what will happen next year and the year after. I think Hawthorn and Clarko looked at Geelong with what they were able to do and thought they could replicate that. But Geelong have destination. Isaac Smith leaves a successful organisation to go and play for an arch rival team. What’s different? One is they’re challenging and two it’s the environment they present.
ROOEY: Jordan, you finished at Melbourne, Sam Mitchell at West Coast, Luke Hodge and Grant Birchall at Brisbane. Given how brutal that environment has been and you’ve lived it, were you surprised that when there was interest in Gunston and Breust at the end of last year that they weren’t moved on for picks or younger players?
JORDAN: I thought that was the perfect time considering the history the past two years prior to that had been getting older players out with no real currency, to be honest. To have two players there with the realisation that you’re not going to compete and you don’t necessarily have access to the draft, that was a moment missed.
ROBBO: Verdict, Kingy?
KINGY: I think they’re spiralling on field and I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a big shift at the end of 2021.
ROOEY: Bottom third for me.
MELBOURNE
ROBBO: Can one player, a key forward in Ben Brown when he returns from his knee injury, fix Melbourne’s connection problems in the front half?
ROOEY: No, because it’s a connection problem. It’s not a personnel problem. Ben Brown’s not a stand and deliver forward. He’s not a player where you kick it in his area and he’ll do the work. He’s a lead mark forward. He can straighten you up because it gives you a little bit more of a focal point, but he’s not going to be the difference between them being a top four side and a middle of the table side.
ROBBO: Jordan, how can a midfield of Gawn, Viney, Brayshaw, Petracca and Clayton Oliver be so-so in the clearance battle? And they brag about how good their midfield is.
JORDAN: I think the evolution of that midfield group is to learn what happens from five to 10 metres, so off the stoppage. You speak about the way they transition the ball and the way they connect forward of centre. For me, they’re too ball watchy as a way to put it.
ROOEY: They’re great ball winners but they’re not great ball distributors. Viney hacks it, Oliver is brilliant with his hands but he’s not good by foot. And Petracca, I wouldn’t say he’s a finesse player. They’ve got amazing ball winners but that’s in and around the stoppage. Once it gets outside, I think they’re ability to defend and distribute into space is what needs to improve.
JOEY: I think the only thing Melbourne is lacking is that balance and shape around the contest. They are all ball hunters but if that midfield group matures and plays a bit more selfless in regards to their shape and balance, they will get better looks getting inside 50 and they’ll defend better. I think they’re very, very close to being a top four team.
JORDAN: The acquisition of Adam Yze over the off-season will be the main reason why they improve in that area. He’s gone in as the midfield coach, so for him to go in and teach the patterns that he saw over a long period of time at Hawthorn – where he was from 2012 to now – gets a new voice in there. He’s been in a winning environment, so to get that credibility walking in the door I think is huge with that midfield group.
KINGY: We’ve talked at length about this gun stoppage team. They’ve got I think four of the top 15 rated players in the competition yet they’re missing finals. They’ve gone 12 wins, 14 wins, five wins, nine wins. They’ve bounced around for years and Melbourne supporters have had enough of this stuff. We talk about simple things like Max Gawn going into a forward 50 stoppage and maximising your strength. They don’t do that. Christian Salem has been stuck at halfback for five years. With this connection problem, why haven’t they had a look at him at half forward? I think all roads lead back to the coaches’ box. 2021 says we’re either going forward at million miles an hour with Simon Goodwin or we’re not. Because every person you speak to in footy has an exposed flaw with Melbourne and the way they play.
ROBBO: Verdicts?
ROOEY: I think five to eighth for Melbourne. They’ll play finals.
JORDAN: Fifth to eighth is absolutely achievable.
JOEY: I have them top sixth with potential to make top four.
KINGY: I don’t have as much faith in Melbourne, and I have them on the edge of the eight. If not out of it.
NORTH MELBOURNE
ROBBO: I feel that North Melbourne shed some players from their list that needed to go. They’ve got a reasonable batch of young kids. Jordie, where do you see them in 2021?
JORDAN: I see them in a similar position as last year, which is bottom four. I think what we got from North in 2020, if you’re a supporter you’d be pleased to watch your under talented side, I suppose, go out on the park and just try hard. I just think they’re going through a period now that won’t be fruitful for a couple of years.
ROBBO: Joey, what do you know about David Noble?
JOEY: He’s really big at building relationships and culture and developing people and developing the club. That is the foundation in terms of what we’re going to get from him. In regards to his game style, I’m not sure what it’s going to look like yet.
KINGY: I’m not even convinced North Melbourne needs a great game style. They just need to get players back performing their role, living the football program and the lifestyle. I thought at times last year Robbie Tarrant was disinterested, Ben Cunnington was not fit and then got injured. And I think they need to almost take the captaincy off Jack Ziebell and let him go and concentrate on regathering himself as a frontline AFL performer because right now that’s not the case.
ROBBO: Well, who’s the next captain? I like Jy Simpkin but is he too young for that role?
KINGY: I think you’ve got to challenge that next person. Is it too young? I think he’s a pretty mature kid and the decision should be made. They’re talking about Luke McDonald maybe getting that opportunity, so there’s another name. Could they have co-captains? I think it’s time to restore a bit of pride in the footy club. Last year was so disappointing on so many fronts on and off field. I know the critical discussion now is about recruiting and they did really well to get Jaidyn Stephenson and Atu Bosenavulagi and Aidan Corr, but they made a big error 18 months ago when they swapped first round picks with Melbourne. That pick ended up being Caleb Serong, who’s just won the Rising Star, for Tom Powell. That’s a big cross already on the rebuild, so you can’t afford too many of them from here forward.
ROBBO: Verdict, Jordan?
JORDAN: Bottom four for me.
PORT ADELAIDE
ROBBO: It’s fair to say they will be a contender again, Jordan. How much further do they need to improve from 2020 to 2021 to win it?
JORDAN: For me it’s about moments. You look at the final they lost (to Richmond) and the moment they lost it on that last kick in, it’s what it comes down to. The decisions you make under pressure and not having that composure really lost them the preliminary final. So how do you get this team into a position through the pre-season to train scenario-based stuff? They came from 13th to first, which is a massive improvement. They did have the big advantage of being home, playing on their home deck in front of their crowd in Adelaide, but I think they’ve just got what Hawthorn would love to have. And that’s young talent coming in who perform and have some spunk. And they’ve got older players that are still performing such as Travis Boak, who just keeps getting better, and a key forward. Their mix right now is just perfect. They’ll be right up there again.
JOEY: Yep, I think they tick every box. They should be expecting to play in the grand final and they’re cherry ripe to go again. Although, their window is small. You look at their 30-plus players, there’s Boak, Gray, Rockliff, Charlie Dixon, Tom Jonas, Motlop and Hamish Hartlett all over 30. While this is their sweet spot, their window is smaller than say the Brisbane Lions who probably have a bigger window.
KINGY: I do think they need to find another bona fide target in the forward 50. If you go to Dixon 190 times and your next best is 60 times for the year, you’re relying too much on one guy to have a good night when it matters.
ROOEY: He looked shaky late in the year. He was dropping chest marks and grassing a lot of opportunities, so I think they absolutely need to find that second avenue to goal.
ROBBO: Verdict, Kingy?
KINGY: I really like Port Adelaide and they’ll be thereabouts. But until they find another option inside 50, I don’t think they win it with just one target like this.
RICHMOND
ROBBO: Can they make it four from five?
JOEY: It’s as simple as how hungry are they? Are their bellies full or do they still have the desire to go again? That’s all it comes down to with Richmond. If they’re hungry to chase more success, they’ll be there when the whips are cracking. It’s probably a good question for Jordan. How hungry can you be when you’ve won three out of four?
JORDAN: You are in a sense relying on early season performance that can fuel that desire. Or if you see things slipping away and you’re not performing at your best, then you’re really relying on the individual to try and generate that some other way. They’ve still got the names on paper that perform on big occasions. The year they didn’t win it in 2018 I think was a valuable lesson in timing their run.
ROBBO: Will Jack Riewoldt play 22 games this year, Kingy?
KINGY: Jack will play if he’s fit because Dimma is going to play him. He’s not going to take him out of the team for no reason and Jack will want to perform better than he was. But in the big games, in credit and fairness to him, he’s performed when they’ve needed it most. I think the biggest challenge for the competition is, like it or not, Damien Hardwick has designed a game plan that other coaches are either too stubborn to go away from theirs to counteract. At the moment, when they take control of a game and get momentum, the scoreboard flows. The challenge for other coaches now is to work out what to do with Dustin Martin. How do they play against him, particularly in big games? Because we’ve never seen a finals player like him.
ROOEY: He’s the outlier though. How many times do you do a Richmond game and Dusty almost gets the three votes by default sometimes? Because you look through the Richmond players and wonder, ‘Who’s actually played well for them, yet they’ve still won?’ The prelim final was incredible. They have more off nights and end up winning the game of footy more than any other team I think in history. It’s the system that gets them through. I’m staggered so few teams have tried to adopt their system. So many teams want to control the ball, but Richmond has its own brand and it’s unique. I can’t believe the lack of copycats trying to do the same thing because it stands up.
ROBBO: Opposition clubs are looking at Richmond and wondering, ‘How do we stop them?’ Is it about stopping Dusty? Would you be able to come up with a way?
JORDAN: I’d want my team to deny them the ball and to deny them chaos. That is easier said than done, but I think the difference between Richmond and Geelong is their belief and self-confidence is huge. When things aren’t going well they stick at it.
KINGY: Denis Pagan used to have a saying where he thought the hardest players to coach were those who have had success because they all know everything. As long as pawns are happy to play like pawns on the chess board for the Tigers, they’ll be fine. But as soon as a couple of them think, ‘I can do more than this’, that’s when the trouble will come. Outside of that, they’ve got a great club.
ROBBO: Verdict?
JORDAN: I see them from fourth to sixth. You can’t measure the hunger for another tilt at it when sides are coming at you again. Every year becomes harder.
JOEY: Yeah, I’ve got them fourth to sixth. I just think there are teams that should be hungrier and should play a style of footy that should be ahead of them in the home and away season.
ROOEY: I still have them top four. They’ll be there and the same thing will happen again. It’ll be midway through the year and their odds will blow right out because they’ll be sitting fifth or sixth, and when the whips get cracking they’ll time their run again and have another shot at it.
KINGY: Until I can see a team take away the way Richmond plays, I’m going to stick with them.
ST KILDA
ROBBO: Won a final and lost a final in 2020. Did you see enough last year and what they picked up this summer to be a top-four contender this year?
JORDAN: I don’t know about top four. I think they’ll sit in the conversations just below that, between fifth and eighth. I still think they’re two stars away from being a complete side.
ROBBO: In what areas?
JORDAN: I think down forward with that second tall. Tim Membrey is better than serviceable but I think they just need someone to help Max King out there. And I think their midfield is a bit same-same. They’re great ball winners and ball hunters, but they’re just one paced.
ROOEY: Jade Gresham is a player I think that can go through the midfield who didn’t play the majority of the year in 2020 but can bring a little bit of that difference. He can win the ball where there’s no space and create space and do something special with it. He’s got flaws to his game but I think he’s a bit of what they need to inject through that part of the ground.
KINGY: What is Gresham though? He’s five years in, never had a top three in the best and fairest, his body let him down a bit last year. How big can this guy go?
ROOEY: I think that will come down to how professional he can be in his application towards the game. There’s room to grow.
JOEY: He’s St Kilda’s version of Petracca and De Goey. Obviously not that size, but he has that real X-factor that can play in the forward half and turn a game.
KINGY: Overall, my reservation is are they building towards a premiership or they building for that second week of finals type? Is that their ceiling? Because I look at their midfield and they go up against quality when you get to that stage of the year. Can they come into the top four discussion? That’s my reservation.
JOEY: Surprisingly, St Kilda go into 2021 as second in the comp for average games and the oldest list in the competition.
ROBBO: That’s happened quickly, hasn’t it?
JOEY: It has happened quickly. They are a team that have their group ready for now and they’re tracking in the right direction, but are they good enough to leapfrog Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Geelong? Or are they a rung below?
ROOEY: I don’t think they’re quite there yet, but they’ve recruited really well the last couple of years. They haven’t had to give away the world or pay the world, other than Brad Hill, to get these guys across. I think they’re realistic enough to know they’re two to three years away.
KINGY: And they’ve done it at the expense of the draft with only four top-30 selections the last four years.
JOEY: But they’ve nailed the nucleus of five or six guys that you need to build around.
ROBBO: Verdict, Rooey?
ROOEY: Sixth to 10th in that range, but they should play finals.
KINGY: I think they’re a lock for the eight, but not sure they progress any further.
JORDAN: Top eight for me. I think they’ve now built a culture and a name for players who are in free agency to look at St Kilda and think, ‘I’d love to go and play there.’
SYDNEY SWANS
ROBBO: My opinion of the Sydney Swans is they’re the best no-name team I think I’ve ever seen play. They’ve been under the radar for far too long. Can they make the eight this year?
JOEY: No, not for me. I still think they’re a bit of a way off. I know some of the others on this table are a bit more bullish, but they still have some real deficiencies in their game. The midfield still has a fair bit of work to go. Their young players in Florent, Stephens, Rowbottom and McInerney will all be good players, but at the moment they’re still a bit off. They’re progressing nicely, but I’ve got eight or 10 teams ahead of them easily.
JORDAN: Sydney are a team I enjoy watching, and they should have beaten Geelong in a game late in the season. Typically when we watch Sydney it’s more boring on the eye with more stoppages and slow ball movement, but now they’ve got a little bit more pace in their side and they’ve adopted this more corridor use and they’re a little bit quicker from half back with Dawson. It’s more enticing for a forward to know it’s coming in quicker. If you add Franklin hopefully back to that list and Logan McDonald and Isaac Heeney to that side as well, they’ll certainly finish higher than 16th.
ROBBO: How can you be confident that Lance Franklin can get back?
ROOEY: We’re all hopeful but that’s all you can be. You can’t be supremely confident. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and that was always the risk when they took on the deal. But he’s not going to be the difference between being a top four side and not. Whether he plays or not, it’s almost a bit inconsequential. It would be great for all of us and for them because they’ll probably win a few more games, but I don’t think they’ll contend on the back of Lance Franklin being healthy this year.
KINGY: I think they’re another big improver this year, the Swans. I don’t know if they make the eight, but in the last three or four weeks of the season they’ll still be in contention and that’s a big step forward. They’re a green banana right now and they’ll be yellow when it’s ripe and ready to win.
JOEY: They’re a bit raw to be challenging for the eight this year. Bottom six for me.
ROOEY: I think they can sneak up to 11th or 12th.
KINGY: I wouldn’t be shocked if they made the eight. They’ll be right on the knife’s edge of it.
JORDAN: Anywhere from 8th to 10th.
WEST COAST EAGLES
ROBBO: They’ve been up for a while, the Eagles. Do they have another contending year left in them?
JORDAN: I expect them to be up there again. I think they’re a top four side. They play enough home games to register 12 or 13 wins. They get Elliot Yeo back, who was missing for a large portion of the year. They’re a great clearance side but what he provides is the outer layer in what we were talking about with Melbourne earlier. He provides that X-factor of being able to break through. They’re window is small – this year and next year. Whether they can challenge the good sides like Richmond and Geelong, it’s right now because their players and their genuine stars are getting older.
JOEY: I’m about the same. They’ll win enough games to be around the top four, somewhere between third and sixth. Nic Naitanui is still crucial and Josh Kennedy is coming towards the end, but they like Oscar Allen. Young Bailey Williams might get more games. Shannon Hurn isn’t getting any younger. But they’ll still be a chance and they’ll probably need home finals if they’re a chance to win a flag. They need to evolve their game plan a little bit and I think Adam Simpson is aware of that. They play a lot of back-half football and I think they need to play more front half. They need to lock it in a bit more.
ROOEY: They didn’t have a lot go right last year. I think what they were able to achieve was pretty special given all the obstacles, but they couldn’t get going to start the year. Put that down to attitude, being in the hub and all the obstacles they faced. Some teams handled it, they didn’t. Their midfield was decimated at a really important time of the year and McGovern went out late in the year. So I think give them a full squad and they’ll be right there with the very best teams.
KINGY: It’s too simplistic to say they’re too old because their older players are still performing at a pretty high level. Kennedy is still a dominant force in the forward 50.
ROBBO: They’ve got the three targets in the forward line in Kennedy, Jack Darling and Liam Ryan. But do they need more speed or do they need speed on the game?
KINGY: It’s all part of how they play though, isn’t it? They play a methodical, workmanlike, take territory slowly type game.
JORDAN: The good sides, if they’re not having a good day, they find a way to put on four, five goals in quick succession. It feels like for me, they don’t necessarily have a gear to go to if they really need to add some pace around the midfield. Yeo was a huge loss last year in that area, but overall they need to travel well. If they’re going to be a serious contender and play in a grand final, they have to travel well.
ROBBO: Verdicts?
JOEY: Between fourth and sixth.
KINGY: Wouldn’t be surprised if they slid this year, but they’ll be in the top six.
ROOEY: Top five for me.
JORDAN: Top five as well.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
ROBBO: The most curious team in the competition. Where do you think they will travel to this year?
KINGY: I think they’re a real chance this year. They flick the ball around and they have a unique game plan. High energy and high handball, plus they have the midfield depth now with Adam Treloar coming in. I think Naughton gets the ability to go back now with Ugle-Hagan coming in. I think they’ll have a better spine for that. Josh Bruce had an awful year and if he can regather some form I think they’re forward 50 could look quite exciting. Too much was left to Mitch Wallis last year, who was an undersized full forward. For him to be their main target up forward was an indictment on the rest of that group.
JOEY: Up forward, that improvement comes from Ugle-Hagan, and Mitch Hannan has some good traits coming across from Melbourne. And now with Stefan Martin in the side, it means Tim English can play more forward. And I think he looks good as a forward. Bruce can’t have any worse of a year than he did last year. Question for Kingy, you believe Naughton will go back and they won’t stick with him as their No. 1 forward?
KINGY: It hasn’t worked. He took 19 marks inside 50 for the year.
ROOEY: And the only time he marks it is when the ball is actually not kicked to him and he’s able to float in from the side. Having said that, it’s tough playing as a forward in the Bulldogs’ forward line. And that’s because the way they flick the ball around, you wouldn’t know when to go.
JOEY: They’re unique in how they play. It’s different to pretty much to every team in the comp.
ROBBO: Jordan, how do you assess the Bulldogs?
JORDAN: I feel like if they can get a more forward half type of game by keeping their forwards set, I think they’ll become a better side.
KINGY: I think in 2020 we saw a big gap between Marcus Bontempelli’s best and his worst. We hadn’t seen that in years gone by. He had a strange season. There were times when we thought, ‘Wow, he can do anything this guy’. And at other times he didn’t have an impact.
JOEY: Is he still the No. 1 mid? Or now that they’ve got Treloar, Dunkley, Libba, Macrae, Bailey Smith, is he better to be used in that front-half role?
KINGY: I couldn’t agree more and I’d put Ugle-Hagan down there as well and get the captain to steer him around.
ROBBO: Verdicts?
JORDAN: Anywhere from seventh to 10th.
JOEY: I think they play finals, around sixth to eighth.
KINGY: Definitely finals and I could see them in the top four.
ROOEY: In the race for those spots between sixth and eighth.
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Originally published as AFL season predictions 2021: Fox Footy jury ranks every team
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