Essendon deep dive: The games the Bombers must win to keep their finals hopes alive
After the loss against the Bulldogs, the Bombers’ finals chances have taken a hit. But which games to they have to win to cement their spot in the eight? Read the deep dive.
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If the magical number is for 13 wins for the swarm of teams jostling to qualify for finals, then an out-of-sorts Essendon must zero in on two clutch games - Sydney and Greater Western Sydney - if it wants to play in September.
It won’t be easy as both of the Sydney-based clubs are pushing to play finals, particularly the Giants, and that by their own admission, some of the Bombers’ young players are starting to look a little battle-fatigued.
One win across the past five weeks, and comprehensive losses to Geelong and Western Bulldogs in successive weeks has shaken the resolve a little. But a softish draw at the back end of the home-and-away season has given fans of the red and black some hope it can still qualify for finals.
Round 21 and 22 engagements with the bottom two sides West Coast and North Melbourne appear almost certain wins - and if not, then Essendon doesn’t deserve to play finals anyway - while the Round 24 clash with flag favourites Collingwood might be a bridge too far.
That means next Saturday night’s clash with the Swans at Marvel Stadium and Round 23 against GWS at Giants Stadium will be the telling matches.
Win those two games, as well as the contests with the bottom two sides, and the Bombers will almost certainly make the finals.
Drop one of them - as well as the Collingwood game - and it could be curtains in 2023. Over to you, Bombers!
WHAT’S WRONG WITH JAKE?
Jake Stringer has seemed out of sorts in the past few weeks, giving rise to the belief the explosive forward-mid is carrying a niggle he just can’t shake.
He started brightly on Friday night against his old side, helping to secure the first clearance of the game that resulted in a quick-fire opening goal to Peter Wright.
But his influence dried up after that, with coach Brad Scott hinting Stringer could have a week off at some stage.
Asked if Stringer had an injury issue he was dealing with at the moment, Scott said: “Jake would never make excuses and he wouldn’t want me to make excuses for him either.”
“Every player at this stage of the season is carrying something and Jake is no different to that.
“We’ll have to think through that as to whether the niggles that players carry at different stages impact their performance to the point where maybe you have to think about having a week off to get it right.”
At his best, Stringer is the sort of dynamic player the Bombers need to kick-start the back end of their home-and-away season.
But he has not kicked multiple goals in a game since Round 9, and has only had one clearance across the past month, and that was on Friday night.
He has been buying into a more selfless approach for the sake of the team, but maybe the Dons need him to grab a game by the scruff of the neck at some stage soon, but he must be fit to be able to do that.
So don’t be surprised if Stringer is rested in a game in the coming weeks.
The more immediate issue will be replacing Jordan Ridley as it comes to terms with his quad injury.
He is likely to be a significant loss as the club prepares to take on Sydney next Saturday night, given he was one of the club’s most important players on Friday night before going off.
WHY ESSENDON WOULD LIKE AN ANSWER SOON ON REDMAN
Essendon is playing a delicate list management strategy at the moment, but the Bombers will need some clarity on that in the coming weeks.
They do have access to a sizable ‘war chest’ in terms of the salary cap space and it’s no secret that the club has been closely monitoring a number of key forwards and key defenders from rival clubs who would automatically make the Bombers better in 2024 and beyond.
The Herald Sun’s chief football writer Mark Robinson has urged the Bombers to make a ‘Buddy Franklin-type’ godfather offer to a contracted Oscar Allen to prise him out of West Coast, with the offer of high-end draft picks and possibly players as a possible sweetener to the Eagles.
That won’t be easy as the Eagles highly value Allen, but it would be a masterstroke if the Bombers could somehow engineer it.
Suns big man Ben King would also be a forward target when he comes out of contract at the end of next year.
There has also been speculation that the Bombers have a strong interest in North Melbourne free agent defender Ben McKay.
But one of the complicating factors is the club is still waiting on answers from key players Mason Redman and Darcy Parish about their futures just five weeks out from the end of the home and away season.
Essendon would love an answer soon about their intentions in order to get more clarity on what their salary cap outlook beyond this year will look like.
Redman is being courted by Adelaide with a significant offer said to be in the $700,000s, while Geelong has an interest Parish at the right price, not necessarily pushing the money aspect with him but zeroing in on lifestyle and flag hopes.
Bombers insiders are very hopeful both players will soon re-commit to the club long-term, but the fact remains they haven’t yet.
Parish said earlier this month he felt “valued” at Essendon and was happy with the club’s direction under coach Brad Scott. He suggested he was hopeful of getting a deal done soon, which would be music to the Bombers’ fans ears, with the likelihood he will stay.
Redman, too, loves the club and is considered a future leader, but the Crows’ offer is a compelling one.
The Bombers would love an indication from him soon one way or the other so they can get on with the business of knowing what their financial bottom line will look like beyond 2023, and potentially securing the key forward the club sorely needs next year and beyond.
WHERE ARE THE DARING DONS?
Essendon’s ball movement, particularly out of the back half, was hard to watch at times on Friday night, as it favoured safe and steady play rather than corridor footy that can transform a game.
C’mon Bombers, it’s time to take a few more risks. Be daring and be bold, and it might just be the difference between playing finals and being September observers again.
Scott was right when he said the Bulldogs were able to “stifle” the Bombers’ ball movement.
“We thought we weren’t direct enough, we were slow out of the back half,” Scott said.
“I think our ball movement out of the back half has been pretty good this year ... but to the Bulldogs’ credit tonight they were able to stifle that to a certain extent. So we did make some changes there, but it didn’t really translate into enough forward-half pressure.”
Incredibly, the Bombers took 48 marks in the first quarter, but tellingly 32 of those came from defenders. By game’s end, Essendon had +45 in marks, but it mattered little.
Scott’s team controlled the clearance count when they opened up an early two-goal lead, leading that metric by 12-4 at the first change.
Then the script flipped, thanks to Bulldogs stars Tom Liberatore, Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar and a returning Bailey Smith, and to what Scott called a young midfield looking tired for the first time this season.
“It was probably the first time this year where I thought our young mids looked a bit tired and a bit flat,” Scott said.
“Who knows why that is but that’s the way it certainly looked to my eye so we struggled to get some spark and energy around the ball (after) quarter-time.”
The clearances ended up being 47-26 in the Bulldogs’ favour, with the Bombers being -30 in contested possession and ground-ball, with Scott concerned about the 0-9 forward stoppage differential.
Scott admitted after the game he needed to find a way to freshen some of the group as it eyes off a critical last five weeks of the regular season.
DOUBLE DOGS BLOW COULD BE FATAL FOR DONS’ SEASON
Essendon’s season hangs in the balance as its Achilles heel of failing to topple top eight sides provided the Western Bulldogs with the breathing space it needed in what could be a ladder-defining clash at Marvel Stadium.
With Friday’s loss seeing the Bombers already dropping out of the eight this round, Brad Scott and his team has now lost four of their past five matches.
Essendon has won only one of its nine matches contested against top eight sides this season, and has now lost nine of its past 10 games against the Bulldogs.
To make matters worse, important defender Jordan Ridley is likely to be sidelined with what looked like a quad injury suffered in the final term.
Ridley had been the Bombers’ best as he reeled in 14 marks and nine intercepts in a superb performance against Aaron Naughton, but limped from the field midway through the final term after hurting his quad while kicking.
In contrast, the Bulldogs took a significant forward with masterclass performances from Tom Liberatore (36 disposals and 13 clearances) and Marcus Bontempelli (29 disposals and five clearances) who turned fire-starters when their coach Luke Beveridge challenged the midfield after a sluggish first term, while a tackle-happy Bailey Smith (25 disposals and six tackles) made a welcome comeback to the line-up.
Essendon might need to win four of its last five games to make the top eight. While it has a relatively soft draw in the run home with almost gimme games against West Coast and North Melbourne to come, it needs to find some form again - and fast.
The Bombers are still very much a work in progress in Scott’s first season as coach, but the manner in which they finished this contest left a lot to be desired as the Bulldogs ran over the top of them.
Friday night’s win was a significant step in the right direction for the Bulldogs, especially the defence effort which restricted Essendon to only 49 points.
Beveridge had every reason to be frustrated late in the opening term after Essendon had kicked its third goal of the game - and he made the snap decision to get down to the boundary line.
If you had been a whiteboard, you might have been nervous at the first break, even though the Bulldogs coach assured everyone that it wasn’t anger but effect that brought about his broken hand last week.
In the first half hour the Bombers ‘out-bulldogged’ the Bulldogs, with a 12-4 clearance advantage, and Bevo had seen enough when Peter Wright put the Bombers 11 points up just before the quarter-time siren.
The Bulldogs coach got up out of his seat and decided to get a head-start on his quarter-time messaging, heading down to the boundary line while the last 90 seconds was taking place.
It could have been worse. Essendon controlled most of the play in the first term but just lacked the dare in ball movement that could have made for an even bigger lead.
They played safe with the ball in the back half, switching from side to side, which accounted for their mind-blowing tally of 48 marks at quarter-time. Just to emphasise where most of those marks took place, the Bombers’ defenders took 32 of those 48 marks.
Smith vicious
Bailey Smith cannot be faulted for his efforts to turn around his form slump, laying a team-high six tackles as he willed himself into the game, again playing in the high half-forward role which has come under the spotlight this month.
He remains down on confidence with his kicking, which showed when he stabbed badly at a set shot during the second term, but was an important cog around the ball for the Dogs with his physicality, and had fans on their feet when he hunted Jye Caldwell down out of a centre bounce.
The brutal tackle earned him his third holding-the-ball free kick of the night.
English back to earth
Tim English was invincible in the air as he racked up a club record 60 hit-outs against makeshift Swans ruckman Hayden McLean last week, but found it much harder against the new Bombers pairing of Andrew Phillips and Nick Bryan.
Phillips had 10 hit-outs to English’s two in a terrific first term as the Bombers dominated in the middle, but despite the Bomber rucks’ continuing to get first hands on it, the tables completely turned in the next quarter as Liberatore and Treloar began to shark their hit-outs.
"What a magician this man is!"
— Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) July 21, 2023
Bontempelli with a bit of magic! 🪄
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Spin bike squabble
The spin bikes were always going to be in high demand for sore players on a chilly night in Melbourne, but when Matt Guelfi tried to get himself going after a corky the Bombers’ machine was nowhere to be found.
Essendon staff tried to get the small forward on the opposition’s bike midway through the second term, but the Bulldogs trainers were unhappy with the proposed ridesharing arrangement and reportedly told the Bombers where they could stick it.
ABC boundary rider Tim Hodges told the broadcast there were “swear words” exchanged and “chaos” on the boundary as Guelfi was forced to resort to jumping up and down on the spot before he returned to the field.
Scoreboard
BOMBERS 3.2, 5.3, 6.5, 7.7 (49)
BULLDOGS 1.3, 7.5, 9.7, 13.12 (90)
BOURKE’S BEST Bombers: Ridley, Langford, Laverde, Wright, Merrett, Phillips. Bulldogs: Bontempelli, Liberatore, Treloar, Richards, English, Naughton.
GOALS Bombers: Wright 3, Langford 2, Merrett, Guelfi. Bulldogs: Ugle-Hagan 3, Weightman 3, Bontempelli 2, Scott, Naughton, West, Baker, Treloar.
UMPIRES Donlon, Gavine, O’Gorman, Williamson
INJURIES Bombers: Ridley (quad). Bulldogs: nil.
CROWD 43,634 at Marvel Stadium
BOURKE’S VOTES
3. M. Bontempelli (WB)
2. T. Liberatore (WB)
1. J. Ridley (ESS)
Will low-ball offer cost Dons key tall?
– Jon Ralph
Essendon will have to ward off strong rival interest in ruckman Nick Bryan and full back Brandon Zerk-Thatcher as it attempts to sign five priority targets in coming months.
Zerk-Thatcher has put his contract talks on hold until the end of the year after being offered an extremely modest deal by the Dons in recent weeks.
The defender has played 16 games this year at a club that has interest in Roos full back Ben McKay but not at the price which would likely trigger a first-round compensation pick for North Melbourne.
That low-ball contract for Zerk-Thatcher means he will park talks with the Dons to assess his future, despite his preference to remain at Essendon.
Bryan, 21, has been picked for only four games this year, including Friday’s Bulldogs clash, as the Dons weigh up his future with impressive form from Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips.
Draper’s ongoing hip injury means Bryan has got his chance in recent weeks but the young big man would need to see a path forward to play as an AFL regular.
It means rivals, in a changing landscape where Brodie Grundy and Scott Lycett could change clubs, will also monitor Bryan’s future.
Bryan would need to land at a club that saw him as a genuine first ruck in the coming years, with Draper Essendon’s clear No. 1 ruckman for the foreseeable future.
Young forward Harrison Jones is yet to be handed a formal offer after a season ruined by a back stress fracture and an ankle reconstruction.
Jones has shown he is a strong contested mark who still could be a high-calibre player, but his season was shut down early given the injury concerns.
It means his most likely course of action is to sign a one-year deal at Essendon which would give him a chance to prove his upside in 2024.
The Dons will in coming weeks offer him a new deal, with Jones keen to remain at the club but frustrated about a season in which he could not realise his potential.
A month on from the club’s official pitch and contract offer to Mason Redman it is still attempting to lock away his signature.
But Essendon believes it is in a strong position to sign free agents Redman and Darcy Parish given its ample salary cap room and strong growth under Brad Scott.
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