AFL 2021: Do Collingwood need to change its Brodie Grundy’s plan?
Collingwood won the hitout count 63-4 but lost to the Lions, and there is history with Brodie Grundy’s ascendancy failing to translate to a result.
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Nathan Buckley knew what was coming. The stat was staring at him and burning a hole in his head.
He saw it as an easy obvious target when trying to explain how Collingwood had thrown away the game and lost to Brisbane with the last kick of the night.
And he knew the critics would have it locked and loaded.
As expected, Brodie Grundy had beat up on two Lions youngsters, Tom Fullarton and Connor Ballenden, in the ruck with the Pies winning the hitout count 63-4.
But despite the All-Australian‘s dominance, Buckley’s team had actually lost the centre clearances 13-11, only had a modest victory in the stoppage clearances (24-17) and overall clearances (35-30).
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The Pies coach was already pushing off the sightscreen when the inevitable Grundy question came up in the post-match press conference.
“The topics this week were Lachie Neale, obviously the ruck contests and probably Jordy De Goey whether he plays forward or mid,“ Buckley said.
“There’s an overemphasis on certain parts of the game and one of the things that there’s an overemphasis on is hit-outs. It’s not a stat that has a strong correlation.
“And when you know you’re going to lose the hit-outs, you can actually set up pretty well at ground level to be able to buffer that. That’s what sides without a dominant ruckman do.
“Brodie’s not just a hit-outs ruckman, he follows up, he’s a midfielder and that’s what he provides to us. He played particularly well. The hitout differential is largely irrelevant, it’s what we do at ground level with that.
“He still had hit-outs to advantage but the hitout stat is a furphy. I probably don’t help because I’m going to reinforce the focus on that and maybe every coach will be asked this week about ‘what do you think about ruckmen and hit-outs?’ Can’t wait for that.
“But in the end, would Brodie have been one of the strongest performers on the field? I would have thought so.”
Everyone can shape an argument to suit themselves and there is history with Grundy‘s ruck dominance and the Pies not getting a result.
In the 2019 preliminary final loss to Greater Western Sydney, the Pies million dollar ruckman blew up the stats machine, having an incredible 73 hit-outs, yet his team blew its shot at a premiership.
So if Grundy’s not the problem, is it the plan around them?
You could have good money on every coach in the AFL going with affirmative if they were asked would they prefer to have a ruck dominance or not?
There would be no team in the land that doesn‘t value having an advantage like that in the middle of the ground.
While Bucks is right that it might not be the be-all and end-all and obviously you can win without it, what can‘t be denied is the advantage it gives a team if they use it well.
And there is a glaring example of this out west. Nic Naitanui is a star of the competition and like Grundy can get up some serious dominant numbers but there is a key difference.
He seems to hand the ball on a platter to his midfielders with the West Coast Eagles scores from centre bounces a scary stat — at around 28 per cent — for opposition clubs.
Collingwood would have known Brisbane were going to rove to Grundy so what was their plan? Do they run with too much of the same in the centre square? Do they need to mix it up more?
For example look at what Richmond did with Shai Bolton, a flighty half-forward flanker who they have turned into a centre clearance machine.
The noise around Grundy isn‘t going to end any time soon and Bucks knows that, he just needs a better plan to shut it up.
ROBBO: THE KICK WHICH IGNITE A PREMIERSHIP TILT
—Mark Robinson
Gallantry wins you medals. It also wins you four points.
Brisbane’s Zac Bailey kicked the winning goal after the siren on Thursday night.
Last week, he would’ve kicked the winning goal moments before the final siren.
“You wouldn’t be able to write a better script,’’ Lions coach Chris Fagan said in the post-match.
Incredible scenes followed Bailey’s goal. On the field and then in the rooms, it was scenes of manic jubilation that only sport can deliver.
Pile-ons on the field are glorious in the moment.
When the club gathers in the rooms — like the club has gathered in Melbourne because of COVID — it is a celebration for the masses.
ZAC BAILEY WINS IT AFTER THE SIREN 🚨#AFLPiesLionspic.twitter.com/g6YtNHNDnY
— AFL (@AFL) April 1, 2021
Unable to return home, they have staked their flag at the top of Collins.
On Thursday night, they staked their 2021 season near the bottom of Bourke St.
A loss was unfathomable for last year’s preliminary finalist.
They were 0-2 going into last night and were seconds away from being 0-3.
Bailey — and with plenty of help from his teammates — was the matchwinner.
“It was pretty nerve wracking … but we do that stuff at training,’’ Bailey said.
“I knew pretty quickly it was going through … it was good.’’
That’s an understatement.
His composure was obvious. It seems simple enough, doesn’t it? Take the mark inside 50m, go back, settle and then seize the moment.
It gives the Lions hope and belief.
If he missed, the Lions were heading to Ballarat to face the Bulldogs in what would’ve been season-defining. As it is, Thursday night might have proved just that. It was a win for persistence.
It was an unusual game in that the rapid ball movement was stifled by stern defence and a willingness by both teams to largely play one-on-one football.
Mammoth moment in Brisbane’s season to avoid 0-3. Zac Bailey, take a bow.
— Marc McGowan 🗣âœï¸ðŸ‘¨ðŸ»â€ðŸ’»ðŸ“° (@ByMarcMcGowan) April 1, 2021
Should’ve won that reasonably comfortably in the end. Two missed set shots late and some crazy decision-making in the dying stages. The Andrews fend off, Adams’ handball after marking etc.
Reckon Zac Bailey believes in karma?
— Sam Landsberger 🗯 (@SamLandsberger) April 1, 2021
In many respects, it was kick-mark football, which meant overall pressure was down. At times, the Lions sent a forward to the stoppage to try to curtail Brodie Grundy’s dominance, but at the death it was about winning your own ball.
Lion Daniel Rich was superb off halfback and once again he was able to scoot around behind the kicker to bomb a long goal from 50m. This one came in the final quarter. It was a mistake from opposition that shouldn’t be allowed to eventuate.
When Daniel Rich gets it outside 50, there is only ever one result 👊#AFLPiesLionspic.twitter.com/qnogjJiX3n
— AFL (@AFL) April 1, 2021
Josh Daicos may have found the familiar family position. A wingman last year, on Thursday night he played 80 per cent forward, 10 per cent midfield and 10 per cent wing.
His front and square gather and goal in the final quarter might’ve been far greater recognised if Collingwood won the game. Still, he’s going to be a delight to watch for many years to come.
The final margin was 11.7 to 11.6. Twice the Lions came from behind to secure the most memorable of victories.
They trailed by 25 points in the second quarter and then by 16 points in the final quarter. Certainly, gallantry is not the domain for the unlucky loser. The final quarter was the best of the quarters. It always is in a tight game. Rich kicked his goal. Callum Brown missed from 25m. Daicos kicked his goal. Joe Daniher missed from 20m and Jarryd Lyons missed from 40m. It was nail biting for the missed opportunities.
Earlier, Collingwood kicked three of the first four goals in the second quarter, but could not maximise its control around the round. They should’ve been ahead by more than four goals.
The ensuing arm-wrestle swung towards Brisbane after they kicked the final three goals of the second quarter. The Lions would’ve been thrilled with their resilience. The Pies would’ve been immensely frustrated.
Their overall dominance and D50 prowess was swamped by three goals from the Lions, one coming from a Eric Hipwood mark, the other via Charlie Cameron dance and prance and the final goal via a free kick to Daniher. Both teams often failed with that vital kick inside 50m. D50 intercepts marks-possessions in the first half were four to Collingwood and five to Brisbane.
Coming into Thursday night’s game Brisbane had won the contested possession count once in its past 12 matches. They lost it again.
Steele Sidebottom dropped marks, missed handballs, tackled from behind and had no awareness. He was solid without his customary poise.
Daniher kicked three goals, took eight marks and competed well enough. But when he won the ball, he too often made bad decisions. There was too much flair and not enough fundamentals.
Still, he is a foreboding presence. And, after that win, so is Brisbane.
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